Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
SF L	17–20	+0.5dog 3.5	-0.06 → +0.02	+0.07 → +0.04	-0.02	43%raw 15%	2% – 83%	1 / 1
@ LA W	20–17	-0.5fav 3.5	+0.07 → +0.11	-0.06 → -0.09	+0.20	91%raw 85%	17% – 98%	1 / 1
CIN W	27–24	+10.0dog 7.0	+0.06 → +0.04	-0.03 → -0.15	+0.19	90%raw 78%	5% – 97%	1 / 2
@ KC L	24–27	-10.0fav 7.0	-0.03 → -0.04	+0.06 → +0.06	-0.10	24%raw 22%	3% – 95%	2 / 1

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	LA	29	+0.318	+0.214	+0.104	+9.2	1 / 0	-4.6	0	+0.0	+0.14	-18.0
Matthew Stafford	LA	SF	47	+0.300	+0.279	+0.021	+14.1	1 / 0	-5.8	2	-2.6	+0.61	+6.4
Joe Burrow	CIN	KC	40	+0.076	+0.098	-0.022	+3.0	1 / 0	-4.0	1	-1.4	+0.10	-1.8
Patrick Mahomes	KC	CIN	43	-0.166	-0.148	-0.018	-7.2	2 / 0	-7.9	4	-7.1	-0.49	+0.7

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.