Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W | 51–26 | +18.5fav 6.5 | +0.65 → +0.66 | +0.11 → +0.12 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 26–51 | -18.5dog 6.5 | +0.11 → +0.17 | +0.65 → +0.64 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 72% | 1 / 0 |
| IND L | 11–26 | -29.0fav 14.0 | -0.32 → -0.42 | +0.09 → +0.17 | -0.59 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 26–11 | +29.0dog 14.0 | +0.09 → +0.12 | -0.32 → -0.37 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| CAR L | 17–41 | -13.0dog 11.0 | -0.20 → -0.13 | +0.30 → +0.22 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 72% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 41–17 | +13.0fav 11.0 | +0.30 → +0.33 | -0.20 → -0.12 | +0.45 | 99%raw 100% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 10–27 | -1.0dog 16.0 | -0.52 → -0.47 | +0.03 → -0.08 | -0.38 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 27–10 | +1.0fav 16.0 | +0.03 → -0.05 | -0.52 → -0.44 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| NO W | 30–20 | +5.5fav 4.5 | +0.14 → +0.10 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ ATL L | 20–30 | -5.5dog 4.5 | -0.29 → -0.20 | +0.14 → +0.19 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 3 / 0 |
| WAS W | 22–7 | +9.0fav 6.0 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.45 → -0.36 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYG L | 7–22 | -9.0dog 6.0 | -0.45 → -0.48 | -0.01 → +0.04 | -0.52 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 0 |
| CHI L | 17–31 | -10.5dog 3.5 | -0.29 → -0.31 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 84% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 31–17 | +10.5fav 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.32 | 97%raw 100% | 16% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| GB L | 30–37 | -11.0fav 4.0 | +0.02 → -0.08 | +0.18 → +0.23 | -0.31 | 3%raw 10% | 1% – 72% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 37–30 | +11.0dog 4.0 | +0.18 → +0.19 | +0.02 → -0.09 | +0.28 | 96%raw 90% | 28% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| SEA W | 38–30 | +13.5dog 5.5 | +0.18 → +0.22 | -0.02 → -0.05 | +0.27 | 95%raw 94% | 19% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 30–38 | -13.5fav 5.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.20 | 10%raw 6% | 0% – 81% | 1 / 2 |
| PIT W | 16–13 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.06 → -0.07 | -0.24 → -0.27 | +0.20 | 90%raw 92% | 17% – 91% | 1 / 3 |
| @ BAL L | 13–16 | -6.0fav 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.24 | -0.06 → -0.02 | -0.22 | 8%raw 8% | 9% – 83% | 3 / 1 |
| SF W | 27–24 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.19 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.18 | 88%raw 72% | 1% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 24–27 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.04 → +0.08 | +0.11 → +0.09 | -0.00 | 49%raw 28% | 1% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| KC W | 28–24 | -7.5fav 11.5 | +0.23 → +0.23 | +0.04 → +0.07 | +0.16 | 86%raw 93% | 16% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DEN L | 24–28 | +7.5dog 11.5 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.23 → +0.11 | -0.10 | 25%raw 7% | 1% – 84% | 1 / 0 |
| CIN L | 16–21 | +1.5dog 6.5 | -0.17 → -0.18 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.15 | 15%raw 10% | 2% – 48% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 21–16 | -1.5fav 6.5 | -0.01 → -0.02 | -0.17 → -0.17 | +0.16 | 86%raw 90% | 52% – 98% | 2 / 0 |
| LAC L | 32–35 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.11 → +0.07 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.12 | 80%raw 91% | 2% – 86% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 35–32 | +6.5dog 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.07 | +0.11 → +0.07 | -0.14 | 17%raw 9% | 14% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| NE L | 24–33 | -15.0fav 6.0 | -0.06 → -0.03 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.08 | 29%raw 27% | 2% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 33–24 | +15.0dog 6.0 | +0.01 → +0.02 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.11 | 76%raw 73% | 55% – 98% | 0 / 3 |
| TEN W | 28–25 | -7.5fav 10.5 | +0.26 → +0.19 | +0.17 → +0.24 | -0.05 | 36%raw 79% | 41% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 25–28 | +7.5dog 10.5 | +0.17 → +0.17 | +0.26 → +0.23 | -0.06 | 33%raw 21% | 3% – 59% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 28 | +0.901 | +0.902 | -0.000 | +25.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.56 | +14.6 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | HOU | 33 | +0.485 | +0.568 | -0.083 | +16.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.59 | +7.9 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CAR | 38 | +0.478 | +0.470 | +0.009 | +18.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.42 | +13.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 31 | +0.377 | +0.344 | +0.032 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.43 | +7.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 37 | +0.362 | +0.340 | +0.022 | +13.4 | 2 / 0 | -2.1 | 5 | -7.8 | -0.10 | -2.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | 25 | +0.345 | +0.325 | +0.020 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -7.3 | +0.51 | +4.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 45 | +0.284 | +0.270 | +0.015 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.26 | -3.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | TEN | 36 | +0.284 | +0.296 | -0.013 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.24 | +6.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 33 | +0.261 | +0.246 | +0.015 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.33 | +4.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | LA | 34 | +0.203 | +0.100 | +0.104 | +6.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.70 | +4.4 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | ATL | 16 | +0.174 | +0.238 | -0.064 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.06 | +2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 68 | +0.174 | +0.234 | -0.060 | +11.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.88 | -12.7 |
| Gardner Minshew | PHI | DAL | 37 | +0.147 | +0.064 | +0.083 | +5.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.05 | -9.4 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | ARI | 27 | +0.123 | +0.097 | +0.026 | +3.3 | 1 / 1 | -13.7 | 1 | -7.3 | +0.19 | +0.4 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 32 | +0.105 | +0.046 | +0.059 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.23 | -1.8 |
| Drew Lock | DEN | KC | 25 | +0.093 | +0.113 | -0.019 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.17 | -8.6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | BAL | 45 | +0.055 | +0.064 | -0.010 | +2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.52 | -0.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | DET | 21 | +0.030 | +0.177 | -0.147 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.17 | +6.6 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | NO | 36 | -0.025 | -0.123 | +0.098 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.27 | +1.1 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | TB | 44 | -0.064 | -0.124 | +0.061 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.30 | +1.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 23 | -0.077 | -0.120 | +0.042 | -1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | +1.4 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 44 | -0.107 | -0.081 | -0.026 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.13 | +0.7 |
| Derek Carr | LV | LAC | 40 | -0.142 | -0.130 | -0.012 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.11 | -6.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 45 | -0.150 | -0.038 | -0.112 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -8.9 |
| Case Keenum | CLE | CIN | 25 | -0.209 | -0.191 | -0.018 | -5.2 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 1 | -8.4 | -0.07 | +2.9 |
| Brandon Allen | CIN | CLE | 34 | -0.331 | -0.331 | -0.000 | -11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.6 | -0.26 | -16.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 19 | -0.369 | -0.222 | -0.147 | -7.0 | 2 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.20 | -14.2 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | MIN | 56 | -0.373 | -0.377 | +0.004 | -20.9 | 2 / 0 | -12.6 | 7 | -19.9 | -0.31 | +0.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | PIT | 34 | -0.388 | -0.432 | +0.044 | -13.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.68 | -12.6 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | NYG | 22 | -0.393 | -0.377 | -0.016 | -8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.18 | -8.7 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | JAX | 36 | -0.448 | -0.303 | -0.145 | -16.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 6 | -13.3 | -0.25 | -4.8 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | BUF | 28 | -0.544 | -0.603 | +0.059 | -15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 8 | -14.3 | -0.37 | -31.2 |
| Jake Fromm | NYG | WAS | 34 | -0.584 | -0.567 | -0.017 | -19.8 | 2 / 1 | -16.9 | 3 | -9.1 | -0.29 | -16.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.