Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
SF L	7–31	-21.5dog 2.5	-0.46 → -0.44	+0.08 → +0.00	-0.44	1%raw 0%	0% – 50%	3 / 0
@ PHI W	31–7	+21.5fav 2.5	+0.08 → +0.15	-0.46 → -0.53	+0.68	100%raw 100%	50% – 100%	0 / 3
CIN L	20–23	-1.0dog 2.0	+0.02 → +0.01	+0.05 → -0.10	+0.11	78%raw 42%	9% – 58%	2 / 1
@ KC W	23–20	+1.0fav 2.0	+0.05 → +0.07	+0.02 → -0.04	+0.11	76%raw 58%	42% – 91%	1 / 2

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Patrick Mahomes	KC	CIN	46	+0.182	+0.161	+0.021	+8.4	0 / 1	-6.0	3	-7.9	+0.24	+2.3
Jalen Hurts	PHI	SF	26	+0.011	-0.025	+0.037	+0.3	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-1.0	-0.03	-2.6
Joe Burrow	CIN	KC	46	-0.050	-0.040	-0.010	-2.3	2 / 0	-4.5	5	-7.2	-0.04	+8.1
Josh Johnson	SF	PHI	15	-0.095	-0.135	+0.040	-1.4	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-2.8	-0.05	-5.5

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.