Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR L | 21–42 | -14.0dog 7.0 | -0.03 → -0.01 | +0.39 → +0.34 | -0.34 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 42–21 | +14.0fav 7.0 | +0.39 → +0.41 | -0.03 → +0.03 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| BAL W | 27–13 | +13.0fav 1.0 | +0.16 → +0.22 | -0.16 → -0.12 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 13–27 | -13.0dog 1.0 | -0.16 → -0.18 | +0.16 → +0.16 | -0.33 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| IND L | 3–26 | -18.0dog 5.0 | -0.63 → -0.60 | -0.32 → -0.32 | -0.27 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NE W | 26–3 | +18.0fav 5.0 | -0.32 → -0.32 | -0.63 → -0.57 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| BUF L | 17–20 | -14.0fav 11.0 | -0.02 → -0.03 | +0.07 → +0.14 | -0.17 | 13%raw 23% | 2% – 78% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 20–17 | +14.0dog 11.0 | +0.07 → +0.12 | -0.02 → -0.12 | +0.24 | 93%raw 77% | 22% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| SEA W | 31–21 | +11.5dog 1.5 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.15 → -0.12 | +0.21 | 92%raw 96% | 25% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 21–31 | -11.5fav 1.5 | -0.15 → -0.19 | +0.09 → +0.08 | -0.27 | 5%raw 4% | 0% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI W | 29–17 | -2.0fav 14.0 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.12 → +0.02 | +0.14 | 83%raw 98% | 27% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 17–29 | +2.0dog 14.0 | -0.12 → -0.08 | +0.18 → +0.11 | -0.19 | 11%raw 2% | 0% – 73% | 2 / 1 |
| TEN L | 17–20 | +11.0dog 14.0 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.06 → -0.09 | +0.00 | 50%raw 14% | 3% – 92% | 0 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 20–17 | -11.0fav 14.0 | +0.06 → +0.07 | -0.08 → -0.06 | +0.12 | 80%raw 86% | 8% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
| LV L | 20–27 | -9.5fav 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.19 → +0.19 | -0.15 | 15%raw 15% | 0% – 86% | 1 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 27–20 | +9.5dog 2.5 | +0.19 → +0.15 | +0.06 → +0.06 | +0.08 | 72%raw 85% | 14% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| MIN W | 20–17 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.08 | -0.16 → -0.12 | +0.04 | 61%raw 72% | 11% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 17–20 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.19 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.09 | 27%raw 28% | 9% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA W | 35–32 | -1.0fav 4.0 | +0.30 → +0.24 | +0.17 → +0.22 | +0.02 | 55%raw 86% | 34% – 95% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CHI L | 32–35 | +1.0dog 4.0 | +0.17 → +0.18 | +0.30 → +0.31 | -0.12 | 20%raw 14% | 5% – 66% | 0 / 0 |
| LA L | 13–16 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.19 → -0.17 | -0.16 → -0.18 | +0.00 | 51%raw 40% | 7% – 90% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 16–13 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.16 | -0.19 → -0.17 | +0.01 | 53%raw 60% | 10% – 93% | 0 / 0 |
| LAC W | 20–17 | +0.5fav 2.5 | +0.03 → -0.03 | +0.00 → +0.02 | -0.05 | 36%raw 60% | 16% – 82% | 2 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 17–20 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.00 → -0.01 | +0.03 → +0.00 | -0.01 | 48%raw 40% | 18% – 84% | 1 / 2 |
| GB L | 9–15 | -10.0fav 4.0 | -0.11 → -0.18 | -0.15 → -0.17 | -0.01 | 47%raw 62% | 1% – 65% | 3 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 15–9 | +10.0dog 4.0 | -0.15 → -0.17 | -0.11 → -0.15 | -0.02 | 45%raw 38% | 35% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | CIN | 20 | +0.608 | +0.592 | +0.016 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +2.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CHI | 30 | +0.589 | +0.633 | -0.043 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +10.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LV | 30 | +0.382 | +0.448 | -0.066 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +17.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CAR | 29 | +0.374 | +0.370 | +0.004 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.16 | +12.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NO | 25 | +0.257 | +0.178 | +0.078 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.5 | +0.22 | -13.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | HOU | 31 | +0.214 | +0.228 | -0.014 | +6.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 4 | -11.1 | +0.28 | +15.4 |
| Derek Carr | LV | JAX | 38 | +0.153 | +0.209 | -0.056 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.10 | -7.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | ATL | 43 | +0.037 | +0.116 | -0.078 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | -1.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | MIA | 31 | +0.029 | +0.014 | +0.016 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.3 | -0.29 | -3.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | TEN | 72 | +0.025 | +0.023 | +0.002 | +1.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.04 | -1.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | WAS | 42 | +0.013 | +0.021 | -0.008 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.19 | -1.9 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | BUF | 27 | +0.002 | -0.066 | +0.068 | +0.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 2 | -6.9 | -0.08 | +4.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | LAC | 25 | +0.001 | -0.018 | +0.018 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.35 | -7.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 26 | -0.038 | -0.056 | +0.019 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -6.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.13 | -17.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | 36 | -0.048 | -0.035 | -0.013 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -8.9 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.07 | +7.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | LA | 58 | -0.075 | -0.080 | +0.005 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.9 | +0.25 | -5.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | TB | 31 | -0.146 | -0.151 | +0.005 | -4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.20 | -13.5 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | BAL | 33 | -0.179 | -0.138 | -0.041 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.32 | +0.0 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 40 | -0.234 | -0.191 | -0.043 | -9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.6 | -0.01 | +1.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | PHI | 25 | -0.244 | -0.286 | +0.042 | -6.1 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.01 | -5.7 |
| Mac Jones | NE | IND | 34 | -0.263 | -0.246 | -0.017 | -8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.30 | -0.7 |
| Malik Willis | TEN | KC | 19 | -0.310 | -0.293 | -0.017 | -5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.52 | -21.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 39 | -0.351 | -0.326 | -0.026 | -13.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 5 | -4.8 | -0.52 | -8.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | MIN | 31 | -0.373 | -0.355 | -0.018 | -11.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.37 | -9.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | DET | 45 | -0.403 | -0.301 | -0.102 | -18.1 | 3 / 0 | -18.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.46 | -4.7 |
| Sam Ehlinger | IND | NE | 38 | -0.723 | -0.774 | +0.051 | -27.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 9 | -14.5 | -0.39 | -16.2 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | CIN | 10 | -1.323 | -1.339 | +0.016 | -13.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -35.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.