Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV L | 0–24 | -25.0fav 1.0 | -0.38 → -0.33 | +0.15 → +0.19 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 24–0 | +25.0dog 1.0 | +0.15 → +0.10 | -0.38 → -0.39 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| CIN L | 13–32 | -22.0fav 3.0 | -0.17 → -0.19 | +0.20 → +0.19 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 32–13 | +22.0dog 3.0 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.17 → -0.24 | +0.46 | 99%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| PIT L | 13–35 | -11.0dog 11.0 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.40 → +0.33 | -0.36 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 35–13 | +11.0fav 11.0 | +0.40 → +0.39 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| SF W | 31–14 | +16.0fav 1.0 | +0.34 → +0.36 | -0.08 → -0.06 | +0.42 | 99%raw 100% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LA L | 14–31 | -16.0dog 1.0 | -0.08 → -0.02 | +0.34 → +0.29 | -0.31 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 74% | 0 / 0 |
| CHI L | 29–49 | -9.5dog 10.5 | +0.03 → +0.11 | +0.45 → +0.42 | -0.31 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 49–29 | +9.5fav 10.5 | +0.45 → +0.39 | +0.03 → +0.09 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| TEN W | 17–10 | +6.0fav 1.0 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.35 → -0.22 | +0.24 | 94%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 10–17 | -6.0dog 1.0 | -0.35 → -0.35 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA W | 31–27 | +0.5fav 3.5 | +0.35 → +0.29 | +0.19 → +0.18 | +0.11 | 77%raw 89% | 13% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET L | 27–31 | -0.5dog 3.5 | +0.19 → +0.21 | +0.35 → +0.35 | -0.14 | 17%raw 11% | 2% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| DEN W | 21–17 | +5.0dog 1.0 | +0.02 → +0.00 | -0.10 → -0.10 | +0.10 | 75%raw 83% | 12% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 17–21 | -5.0fav 1.0 | -0.10 → -0.08 | +0.02 → +0.07 | -0.15 | 15%raw 17% | 3% – 88% | 2 / 1 |
| BAL W | 27–22 | +7.0dog 2.0 | +0.14 → +0.17 | +0.08 → +0.08 | +0.09 | 73%raw 69% | 17% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB L | 22–27 | -7.0fav 2.0 | +0.08 → +0.08 | +0.14 → +0.14 | -0.06 | 33%raw 31% | 2% – 83% | 0 / 0 |
| GB L | 17–27 | +0.5dog 10.5 | +0.06 → +0.11 | +0.12 → +0.03 | +0.08 | 71%raw 30% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 2 |
| @ BUF W | 27–17 | -0.5fav 10.5 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.06 → +0.03 | +0.08 | 72%raw 70% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| NE W | 22–17 | +2.0fav 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.13 | -0.12 → -0.05 | -0.08 | 29%raw 49% | 19% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| @ NYJ L | 17–22 | -2.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.07 | -0.12 → -0.11 | +0.05 | 63%raw 51% | 1% – 81% | 3 / 1 |
| ARI L | 26–34 | -4.0dog 4.0 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.09 | 27%raw 28% | 3% – 58% | 2 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 34–26 | +4.0fav 4.0 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.04 | 60%raw 72% | 42% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| WAS W | 17–16 | +4.0dog 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.06 | -0.15 → -0.07 | +0.01 | 54%raw 75% | 8% – 70% | 1 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 16–17 | -4.0fav 3.0 | -0.15 → -0.13 | -0.07 → -0.02 | -0.12 | 21%raw 25% | 30% – 92% | 2 / 1 |
| NYG L | 13–27 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.14 | -0.09 → -0.11 | -0.03 | 42%raw 47% | 0% – 56% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 27–13 | +11.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.14 | -0.10 → -0.09 | -0.05 | 36%raw 53% | 44% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| CAR L | 34–37 | +1.5dog 4.5 | +0.08 → +0.02 | +0.04 → +0.06 | -0.04 | 40%raw 65% | 3% – 95% | 1 / 2 |
| @ ATL W | 37–34 | -1.5fav 4.5 | +0.04 → +0.05 | +0.08 → +0.14 | -0.09 | 27%raw 35% | 5% – 97% | 2 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | CIN | 23 | +0.634 | +0.608 | +0.027 | +14.6 | 0 / 1 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.8 | +0.11 | +25.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | DET | 38 | +0.578 | +0.660 | -0.082 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.47 | +19.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | LA | 28 | +0.542 | +0.520 | +0.023 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.40 | +12.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | PIT | 31 | +0.488 | +0.504 | -0.016 | +15.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.8 | +0.25 | +2.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | CHI | 28 | +0.480 | +0.526 | -0.045 | +13.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.26 | +10.9 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | LV | 30 | +0.257 | +0.329 | -0.071 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +1.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIA | 38 | +0.243 | +0.229 | +0.015 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.23 | +1.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | CAR | 30 | +0.209 | +0.208 | +0.001 | +6.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.53 | +6.4 |
| Tom Brady | TB | BAL | 46 | +0.082 | +0.118 | -0.036 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.02 | -4.5 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NYG | 37 | +0.075 | +0.081 | -0.005 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.13 | +6.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 35 | +0.050 | +0.012 | +0.038 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.06 | -5.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | GB | 27 | +0.047 | +0.023 | +0.024 | +1.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -9.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | IND | 33 | +0.041 | +0.051 | -0.010 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.15 | +4.3 |
| Sam Ehlinger | IND | WAS | 25 | +0.040 | +0.048 | -0.008 | +1.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 2 | -6.3 | -0.23 | +7.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | TB | 40 | +0.034 | +0.024 | +0.010 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.17 | +11.1 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | JAX | 32 | +0.029 | +0.086 | -0.058 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.05 | +3.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | BUF | 32 | +0.022 | -0.044 | +0.066 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.11 | -0.3 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 43 | +0.013 | -0.054 | +0.066 | +0.5 | 3 / 0 | -12.7 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.05 | -5.1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | SEA | 36 | -0.038 | +0.003 | -0.041 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -2.9 | +0.07 | -12.8 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | ATL | 37 | -0.043 | +0.037 | -0.080 | -1.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.59 | -9.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | MIN | 48 | -0.053 | -0.042 | -0.011 | -2.5 | 2 / 0 | -8.9 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.05 | -1.4 |
| Jarrett Stidham | LV | NO | 14 | -0.069 | -0.135 | +0.066 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.00 | -5.0 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DAL | 29 | -0.079 | -0.168 | +0.089 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.16 | +10.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | ARI | 39 | -0.097 | -0.082 | -0.015 | -3.8 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.14 | +7.7 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 41 | -0.194 | -0.172 | -0.022 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 6 | -9.8 | +0.04 | +2.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 40 | -0.199 | -0.231 | +0.032 | -8.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.0 | 5 | -12.5 | -0.39 | +2.9 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | PHI | 44 | -0.315 | -0.357 | +0.042 | -13.9 | 1 / 1 | -9.6 | 6 | -12.8 | -0.15 | -1.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | NO | 29 | -0.343 | -0.409 | +0.066 | -10.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.20 | -10.2 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | TEN | 32 | -0.388 | -0.378 | -0.010 | -12.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.38 | -10.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | DEN | 33 | -0.405 | -0.423 | +0.017 | -13.4 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.44 | -8.5 |
| Malik Willis | TEN | HOU | 13 | -0.855 | -0.817 | -0.038 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.22 | +1.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.