Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA L | 9–24 | -14.0dog 1.0 | -0.22 → -0.16 | +0.20 → +0.14 | -0.30 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 56% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 24–9 | +14.0fav 1.0 | +0.20 → +0.21 | -0.22 → -0.20 | +0.41 | 99%raw 100% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ARI W | 26–16 | +11.0dog 1.0 | -0.05 → -0.04 | -0.46 → -0.42 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 15% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 16–26 | -11.0fav 1.0 | -0.46 → -0.48 | -0.05 → -0.01 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 85% | 3 / 1 |
| SEA W | 48–45 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.60 → +0.55 | +0.24 → +0.23 | +0.32 | 97%raw 99% | 43% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DET L | 45–48 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.24 → +0.22 | +0.60 → +0.61 | -0.39 | 1%raw 1% | 3% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| JAX L | 21–29 | -1.5dog 6.5 | -0.33 → -0.31 | -0.02 → -0.10 | -0.20 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 87% | 5 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 29–21 | +1.5fav 6.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.33 → -0.34 | +0.30 | 96%raw 99% | 13% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| DEN L | 23–32 | -6.5dog 2.5 | -0.19 → -0.24 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.29 | 4%raw 4% | 0% – 60% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 32–23 | +6.5fav 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.06 | -0.19 → -0.14 | +0.21 | 91%raw 96% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA L | 15–27 | -8.0dog 4.0 | -0.04 → -0.02 | +0.11 → +0.06 | -0.08 | 30%raw 11% | 0% – 60% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 27–15 | +8.0fav 4.0 | +0.11 → +0.13 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.17 | 87%raw 89% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LAC W | 34–24 | +4.5fav 5.5 | +0.25 → +0.23 | -0.07 → +0.07 | +0.16 | 86%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 24–34 | -4.5dog 5.5 | -0.07 → -0.08 | +0.25 → +0.23 | -0.30 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| MIN W | 28–25 | -1.0fav 4.0 | -0.02 → +0.04 | +0.16 → +0.21 | -0.17 | 13%raw 8% | 29% – 87% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 25–28 | +1.0dog 4.0 | +0.16 → +0.15 | -0.02 → -0.02 | +0.16 | 86%raw 92% | 13% – 71% | 1 / 1 |
| KC W | 41–31 | +11.0dog 1.0 | +0.25 → +0.28 | +0.14 → +0.13 | +0.14 | 83%raw 82% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TB L | 31–41 | -11.0fav 1.0 | +0.14 → +0.13 | +0.25 → +0.11 | +0.03 | 57%raw 18% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 1 |
| NYJ W | 24–20 | +7.0dog 3.0 | +0.04 → +0.01 | -0.08 → -0.07 | +0.08 | 71%raw 83% | 9% – 91% | 2 / 4 |
| @ PIT L | 20–24 | -7.0fav 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.04 → +0.11 | -0.20 | 10%raw 17% | 9% – 91% | 4 / 2 |
| BUF W | 23–20 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.04 → -0.05 | +0.06 | 67%raw 71% | 6% – 88% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BAL L | 20–23 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.04 → +0.01 | +0.03 → -0.07 | +0.08 | 70%raw 29% | 12% – 94% | 2 / 2 |
| TEN W | 24–17 | +11.5dog 4.5 | +0.04 → +0.06 | -0.08 → -0.00 | +0.06 | 66%raw 84% | 42% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ IND L | 17–24 | -11.5fav 4.5 | -0.08 → -0.07 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.14 | 17%raw 16% | 1% – 58% | 3 / 0 |
| WAS L | 10–25 | -12.0dog 3.0 | -0.27 → -0.20 | -0.18 → -0.23 | +0.02 | 57%raw 25% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 25–10 | +12.0fav 3.0 | -0.18 → -0.17 | -0.27 → -0.22 | +0.05 | 64%raw 75% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| CHI L | 12–20 | -5.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.14 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.23 | 7%raw 10% | 0% – 62% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 20–12 | +5.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.00 | -0.09 → -0.04 | +0.04 | 62%raw 90% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| NE L | 24–27 | +7.0dog 10.0 | +0.02 → +0.01 | +0.01 → -0.02 | +0.03 | 59%raw 54% | 5% – 83% | 1 / 2 |
| @ GB W | 27–24 | -7.0fav 10.0 | +0.01 → +0.07 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.03 | 59%raw 46% | 17% – 95% | 2 / 1 |
| CLE L | 20–23 | -4.0fav 1.0 | +0.05 → -0.01 | +0.04 → +0.06 | -0.07 | 32%raw 55% | 4% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 23–20 | +4.0dog 1.0 | +0.04 → +0.03 | +0.05 → +0.04 | -0.01 | 47%raw 45% | 39% – 96% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | SEA | DET | 30 | +0.620 | +0.701 | -0.080 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.50 | +13.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | MIA | 32 | +0.432 | +0.411 | +0.021 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.32 | +1.6 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | LA | 27 | +0.414 | +0.397 | +0.017 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -8.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | HOU | 40 | +0.409 | +0.418 | -0.009 | +16.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.43 | +4.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | SEA | 41 | +0.330 | +0.360 | -0.030 | +13.5 | 1 / 0 | -8.8 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.17 | +2.4 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | MIN | 31 | +0.241 | +0.245 | -0.004 | +7.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.35 | +8.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | TB | 40 | +0.230 | +0.215 | +0.016 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -2.5 | +0.11 | +1.5 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | TEN | 40 | +0.223 | +0.219 | +0.004 | +8.9 | 1 / 1 | -10.6 | 3 | -8.3 | +0.07 | +4.7 |
| Tom Brady | TB | KC | 53 | +0.174 | +0.179 | -0.006 | +9.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | -0.06 | +6.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | NYJ | 13 | +0.085 | +0.110 | -0.024 | +1.1 | 3 / 0 | -7.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | +20.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | NE | 36 | +0.080 | +0.012 | +0.068 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.11 | +0.5 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | WAS | 28 | +0.052 | +0.059 | -0.007 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.11 | -7.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | NO | 41 | +0.040 | -0.035 | +0.075 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.10 | +5.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | BAL | 37 | +0.021 | +0.056 | -0.034 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.02 | -11.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | PIT | 37 | +0.005 | +0.031 | -0.026 | +0.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.16 | -6.8 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIA | CIN | 23 | -0.011 | -0.028 | +0.018 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | +3.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 24 | -0.022 | -0.011 | -0.011 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -7.0 | +0.07 | +9.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CIN | 15 | -0.023 | -0.041 | +0.018 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.05 | -5.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CAR | 34 | -0.049 | -0.045 | -0.004 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.14 | +5.5 |
| Derek Carr | LV | DEN | 36 | -0.064 | -0.092 | +0.028 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.09 | -0.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | ATL | 36 | -0.108 | -0.028 | -0.080 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.8 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.41 | -5.5 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LV | 28 | -0.115 | -0.037 | -0.079 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.08 | +0.3 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | CHI | 14 | -0.192 | -0.140 | -0.052 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.03 | -1.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 55 | -0.202 | -0.233 | +0.032 | -11.1 | 1 / 1 | -13.5 | 7 | -11.5 | -0.24 | -1.6 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | NYG | 28 | -0.209 | -0.203 | -0.006 | -5.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 6 | -9.4 | -0.18 | -7.8 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | LAC | 39 | -0.211 | -0.223 | +0.013 | -8.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 4 | -8.0 | -0.30 | +5.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | CLE | 20 | -0.226 | -0.257 | +0.031 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.11 | -20.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | BUF | 31 | -0.235 | -0.297 | +0.062 | -7.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.33 | -0.2 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | GB | 18 | -0.251 | -0.264 | +0.013 | -4.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.28 | +1.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | PHI | 27 | -0.289 | -0.329 | +0.040 | -7.8 | 1 / 3 | -17.9 | 4 | -13.4 | -0.26 | -20.7 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | DAL | 44 | -0.315 | -0.395 | +0.080 | -13.9 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.20 | -6.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | ARI | 39 | -0.364 | -0.341 | -0.023 | -14.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.44 | -10.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | NYJ | 16 | -0.439 | -0.415 | -0.024 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.28 | -5.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | JAX | 28 | -0.499 | -0.432 | -0.067 | -14.0 | 1 / 0 | -8.8 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.29 | -2.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.