Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA L | 10–26 | +0.5dog 16.5 | -0.23 → -0.25 | +0.13 → -0.02 | -0.23 | 7%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 26–10 | -0.5fav 16.5 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.23 → -0.21 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| DEN L | 10–23 | -14.0fav 1.0 | -0.27 → -0.26 | +0.08 → +0.14 | -0.41 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 51% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 23–10 | +14.0dog 1.0 | +0.08 → +0.11 | -0.27 → -0.22 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NO L | 0–13 | -3.5dog 9.5 | -0.27 → -0.21 | -0.02 → -0.08 | -0.13 | 19%raw 3% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 13–0 | +3.5fav 9.5 | -0.02 → +0.03 | -0.27 → -0.23 | +0.27 | 95%raw 97% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| PIT W | 24–17 | +9.5dog 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.16 → -0.09 | +0.21 | 91%raw 97% | 40% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 17–24 | -9.5fav 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.20 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 1% – 60% | 2 / 0 |
| CHI L | 10–31 | -12.5dog 8.5 | -0.06 → -0.07 | +0.25 → +0.32 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYJ W | 31–10 | +12.5fav 8.5 | +0.25 → +0.18 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.20 | 90%raw 99% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| LV W | 40–34 | +10.0dog 4.0 | +0.21 → +0.18 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.16 | 86%raw 91% | 14% – 70% | 2 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 34–40 | -10.0fav 4.0 | +0.03 → -0.01 | +0.21 → +0.22 | -0.23 | 7%raw 9% | 30% – 86% | 2 / 2 |
| NYG L | 20–28 | +2.5dog 10.5 | -0.07 → +0.00 | +0.14 → +0.11 | -0.11 | 23%raw 5% | 0% – 68% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DAL W | 28–20 | -2.5fav 10.5 | +0.14 → +0.10 | -0.07 → -0.06 | +0.16 | 85%raw 95% | 32% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| HOU L | 15–30 | -1.0dog 14.0 | -0.37 → -0.37 | -0.11 → -0.11 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 0% – 43% | 3 / 1 |
| @ MIA W | 30–15 | +1.0fav 14.0 | -0.11 → -0.14 | -0.37 → -0.24 | +0.11 | 77%raw 97% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| GB L | 33–40 | -0.5dog 6.5 | +0.19 → +0.23 | +0.20 → +0.13 | +0.10 | 76%raw 46% | 1% – 55% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 40–33 | +0.5fav 6.5 | +0.20 → +0.19 | +0.19 → +0.16 | +0.03 | 59%raw 54% | 45% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| TB L | 17–23 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.03 → -0.04 | +0.02 → +0.01 | -0.05 | 36%raw 31% | 10% – 93% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE W | 23–17 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.02 → +0.05 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.09 | 74%raw 69% | 7% – 90% | 1 / 0 |
| CIN W | 20–16 | +3.0fav 1.0 | +0.14 → +0.15 | +0.06 → +0.09 | +0.06 | 67%raw 74% | 18% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 16–20 | -3.0dog 1.0 | +0.06 → +0.08 | +0.14 → +0.08 | +0.00 | 51%raw 26% | 1% – 82% | 0 / 0 |
| BUF W | 28–25 | -7.0fav 10.0 | +0.10 → +0.03 | +0.02 → +0.00 | +0.03 | 59%raw 75% | 20% – 86% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 25–28 | +7.0dog 10.0 | +0.02 → +0.07 | +0.10 → +0.01 | +0.06 | 67%raw 25% | 14% – 80% | 1 / 1 |
| BAL L | 27–28 | -4.5fav 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.08 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.05 | 63%raw 71% | 30% – 94% | 2 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 28–27 | +4.5dog 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.07 | 31%raw 29% | 6% – 70% | 1 / 2 |
| NE L | 26–33 | -4.5dog 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.06 | +0.06 → +0.06 | -0.01 | 47%raw 52% | 1% – 71% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 33–26 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.12 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.04 | 60%raw 48% | 29% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| LAC W | 25–24 | -1.5fav 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.06 | +0.06 → +0.10 | -0.04 | 39%raw 48% | 5% – 66% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 24–25 | +1.5dog 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.03 | 58%raw 52% | 34% – 95% | 2 / 0 |
| ATL L | 13–19 | -2.5dog 3.5 | +0.02 → +0.04 | +0.12 → +0.18 | -0.14 | 17%raw 19% | 2% – 53% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 19–13 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.12 → +0.07 | +0.02 → +0.04 | +0.03 | 57%raw 81% | 47% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | NYJ | CHI | 29 | +0.556 | +0.602 | -0.046 | +16.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.52 | +8.6 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 30 | +0.391 | +0.388 | +0.002 | +11.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +13.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | NE | 38 | +0.382 | +0.306 | +0.076 | +14.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.50 | +9.9 |
| Derek Carr | LV | SEA | 37 | +0.337 | +0.368 | -0.031 | +12.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.59 | +3.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BAL | 42 | +0.324 | +0.354 | -0.030 | +13.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.80 | +11.6 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | DEN | 19 | +0.309 | +0.275 | +0.034 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +5.0 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LAC | 30 | +0.282 | +0.256 | +0.027 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.00 | +0.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | BUF | 39 | +0.215 | +0.145 | +0.070 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.10 | -3.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | CIN | 35 | +0.212 | +0.190 | +0.022 | +7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.28 | +0.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LA | 42 | +0.190 | +0.177 | +0.013 | +8.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +4.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | HOU | 39 | +0.184 | +0.202 | -0.018 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | +0.14 | +3.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | JAX | 34 | +0.184 | +0.237 | -0.053 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.50 | -6.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TEN | 38 | +0.156 | +0.151 | +0.005 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.32 | -7.2 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIN | 41 | +0.142 | +0.148 | -0.006 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.24 | +10.9 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LV | 40 | +0.128 | +0.201 | -0.073 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.08 | +6.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | NO | 38 | +0.109 | +0.034 | +0.075 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -4.3 | -0.00 | +4.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | GB | 30 | +0.082 | +0.055 | +0.027 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.16 | -2.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | PHI | 19 | +0.067 | +0.013 | +0.054 | +1.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.03 | -0.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | ARI | 52 | +0.049 | +0.061 | -0.011 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.4 | +0.46 | +4.9 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | SF | 30 | +0.048 | +0.011 | +0.037 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.0 | -0.04 | -2.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | ATL | 23 | +0.025 | +0.103 | -0.078 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | -2.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CLE | 46 | -0.000 | -0.037 | +0.037 | -0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.20 | +1.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | IND | 32 | -0.010 | -0.000 | -0.010 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.15 | -0.3 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DAL | 35 | -0.037 | -0.123 | +0.087 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.16 | +4.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | DET | 45 | -0.114 | -0.016 | -0.097 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.34 | -4.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | TB | 41 | -0.134 | -0.141 | +0.007 | -5.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.1 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.35 | +0.3 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | PIT | 37 | -0.167 | -0.137 | -0.030 | -6.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.12 | -1.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | WAS | 26 | -0.194 | -0.182 | -0.013 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.29 | -4.4 |
| Trevor Siemian | CHI | NYJ | 27 | -0.288 | -0.261 | -0.027 | -7.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.13 | -6.5 |
| Kyle Allen | HOU | MIA | 45 | -0.371 | -0.372 | +0.000 | -16.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 5 | -7.5 | -0.35 | -4.9 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | CAR | 38 | -0.386 | -0.373 | -0.012 | -14.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 3 | -7.4 | -0.31 | -1.2 |
| Bryce Perkins | LA | KC | 26 | -0.519 | -0.504 | -0.015 | -13.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.9 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.20 | -10.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.