Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN L | 14–51 | -40.0fav 3.0 | -0.30 → -0.30 | +0.29 → +0.32 | -0.62 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 4 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 51–14 | +40.0dog 3.0 | +0.29 → +0.32 | -0.30 → -0.26 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| BUF W | 35–13 | +14.0fav 8.0 | +0.20 → +0.14 | -0.43 → -0.39 | +0.53 | 100%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 13–35 | -14.0dog 8.0 | -0.43 → -0.39 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.51 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 3 |
| LAC W | 20–3 | +13.5fav 3.5 | -0.05 → -0.04 | -0.57 → -0.51 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| @ IND L | 3–20 | -13.5dog 3.5 | -0.57 → -0.60 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.51 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 2 |
| JAX W | 19–3 | +18.5dog 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.30 | 96%raw 99% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NYJ L | 3–19 | -18.5fav 2.5 | -0.29 → -0.32 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.39 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| DET L | 23–37 | -16.5fav 2.5 | +0.08 → +0.10 | +0.41 → +0.48 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 37–23 | +16.5dog 2.5 | +0.41 → +0.35 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| SEA L | 10–24 | -3.5dog 10.5 | -0.22 → -0.24 | +0.01 → -0.13 | -0.11 | 23%raw 4% | 0% – 49% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 24–10 | +3.5fav 10.5 | +0.01 → -0.01 | -0.22 → -0.24 | +0.23 | 93%raw 96% | 51% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| WAS L | 20–37 | -10.5dog 6.5 | -0.12 → -0.06 | +0.12 → +0.06 | -0.12 | 20%raw 4% | 0% – 60% | 2 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 37–20 | +10.5fav 6.5 | +0.12 → +0.14 | -0.12 → -0.07 | +0.21 | 92%raw 96% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN W | 22–18 | +1.0fav 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.15 | -0.07 → -0.06 | +0.21 | 92%raw 90% | 32% – 100% | 3 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 18–22 | -1.0dog 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.05 | +0.09 → +0.04 | -0.09 | 27%raw 10% | 0% – 68% | 1 / 3 |
| HOU W | 19–14 | +8.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.08 | -0.26 → -0.24 | +0.16 | 86%raw 91% | 19% – 98% | 1 / 3 |
| @ TEN L | 14–19 | -8.0fav 3.0 | -0.26 → -0.30 | -0.09 → +0.04 | -0.34 | 2%raw 9% | 2% – 81% | 3 / 1 |
| NO W | 17–10 | +10.0dog 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.13 | -0.25 → -0.28 | +0.15 | 84%raw 87% | 16% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CLE L | 10–17 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.25 → -0.21 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.13 | 19%raw 13% | 1% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI L | 34–40 | -2.0dog 4.0 | +0.04 → +0.11 | +0.06 → +0.02 | +0.09 | 74%raw 44% | 1% – 85% | 4 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 40–34 | +2.0fav 4.0 | +0.06 → +0.10 | +0.04 → -0.04 | +0.13 | 81%raw 56% | 15% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| LV L | 10–13 | -0.5dog 2.5 | -0.17 → -0.21 | -0.02 → -0.01 | -0.20 | 10%raw 11% | 5% – 82% | 3 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 13–10 | +0.5fav 2.5 | -0.02 → -0.07 | -0.17 → -0.18 | +0.11 | 77%raw 89% | 18% – 95% | 1 / 3 |
| TB W | 19–16 | -4.5fav 7.5 | -0.10 → -0.10 | -0.24 → -0.21 | +0.11 | 77%raw 87% | 11% – 89% | 2 / 3 |
| @ ARI L | 16–19 | +4.5dog 7.5 | -0.24 → -0.22 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.11 | 22%raw 13% | 11% – 89% | 3 / 2 |
| ATL L | 9–17 | -1.5dog 6.5 | -0.15 → -0.17 | -0.01 → -0.02 | -0.15 | 16%raw 13% | 1% – 50% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 17–9 | +1.5fav 6.5 | -0.01 → -0.07 | -0.15 → -0.13 | +0.06 | 67%raw 87% | 50% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| GB W | 26–20 | +9.5dog 3.5 | -0.00 → +0.01 | -0.02 → -0.03 | +0.04 | 61%raw 58% | 13% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| @ MIA L | 20–26 | -9.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.00 → -0.04 | -0.00 | 49%raw 42% | 1% – 87% | 4 / 1 |
| NYG L | 24–27 | +1.5dog 4.5 | +0.01 → -0.01 | -0.02 → -0.02 | +0.01 | 53%raw 59% | 6% – 61% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 27–24 | -1.5fav 4.5 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.01 → +0.02 | -0.09 | 27%raw 41% | 39% – 94% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | CAR | DET | 22 | +0.568 | +0.650 | -0.082 | +12.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +2.9 |
| Gardner Minshew | PHI | DAL | 39 | +0.538 | +0.440 | +0.099 | +21.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.62 | +6.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | LA | DEN | 28 | +0.537 | +0.498 | +0.040 | +15.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +8.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CAR | 44 | +0.316 | +0.312 | +0.004 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.20 | -2.3 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | SF | 17 | +0.299 | +0.257 | +0.041 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +7.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | WAS | 25 | +0.266 | +0.269 | -0.003 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.18 | +2.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | NE | 54 | +0.245 | +0.172 | +0.072 | +13.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.1 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.14 | +14.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 41 | +0.191 | +0.139 | +0.052 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -9.9 | 6 | -8.0 | +0.53 | +8.1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | SF | 20 | +0.162 | +0.121 | +0.041 | +3.2 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.27 | +15.6 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | BAL | 35 | +0.076 | +0.112 | -0.037 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.13 | +2.7 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | MIN | 46 | +0.067 | +0.074 | -0.007 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.01 | +2.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | MIA | 40 | +0.065 | +0.053 | +0.012 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.03 | -1.5 |
| Mac Jones | NE | CIN | 37 | +0.061 | +0.043 | +0.018 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.3 | +0.10 | +4.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | GB | 27 | +0.056 | +0.035 | +0.021 | +1.5 | 3 / 0 | -13.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.08 | +3.5 |
| Chris Streveler | NYJ | JAX | 15 | +0.050 | +0.115 | -0.064 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +6.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NYJ | 32 | +0.045 | +0.062 | -0.017 | +1.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | +0.22 | -2.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | CHI | 28 | +0.042 | +0.093 | -0.051 | +1.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.31 | +1.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | SEA | 29 | +0.039 | +0.075 | -0.036 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.04 | -9.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | NYG | 51 | -0.030 | -0.023 | -0.007 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.9 | +0.10 | +2.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | LV | 39 | -0.043 | +0.035 | -0.078 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +1.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | ARI | 48 | -0.054 | -0.039 | -0.015 | -2.6 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -6.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | IND | 35 | -0.098 | -0.084 | -0.013 | -3.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.8 | 4 | -8.8 | +0.06 | +10.9 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | TEN | 30 | -0.109 | -0.111 | +0.002 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.06 | +3.9 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | ATL | 17 | -0.124 | -0.041 | -0.083 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | -1.1 |
| Derek Carr | LV | PIT | 33 | -0.190 | -0.159 | -0.031 | -6.3 | 3 / 0 | -9.5 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.33 | -13.7 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LA | 33 | -0.272 | -0.269 | -0.003 | -9.0 | 3 / 0 | -13.5 | 6 | -9.2 | -0.18 | -5.7 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | BUF | 25 | -0.280 | -0.339 | +0.059 | -7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | -0.12 | +0.2 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | CLE | 15 | -0.305 | -0.334 | +0.029 | -4.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -11.6 |
| Trace McSorley | ARI | TB | 45 | -0.330 | -0.332 | +0.002 | -14.9 | 1 / 1 | -6.7 | 1 | -6.5 | -0.50 | -11.2 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | NO | 33 | -0.407 | -0.469 | +0.062 | -13.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.53 | -4.7 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | JAX | 21 | -0.443 | -0.379 | -0.064 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.0 | 3 | -4.0 | -0.22 | -10.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | KC | 42 | -0.451 | -0.433 | -0.018 | -18.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.28 | +0.6 |
| Malik Willis | TEN | HOU | 27 | -0.672 | -0.638 | -0.034 | -18.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.2 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.79 | -3.8 |
| Nick Foles | IND | LAC | 36 | -0.685 | -0.686 | +0.001 | -24.7 | 3 / 0 | -13.3 | 7 | -9.9 | -0.53 | -8.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.