Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF W | 21–13 | +5.0fav 3.0 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.24 → -0.26 | +0.44 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 13–21 | -5.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.18 | +0.21 → +0.15 | -0.34 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL L | 3–13 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.22 → -0.24 | +0.03 → +0.02 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 0% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 13–3 | +7.5fav 2.5 | +0.03 → +0.02 | -0.22 → -0.24 | +0.26 | 95%raw 97% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ARI L | 15–24 | -7.5dog 1.5 | -0.29 → -0.28 | -0.05 → +0.00 | -0.28 | 4%raw 3% | 0% – 70% | 3 / 2 |
| @ DEN W | 24–15 | +7.5fav 1.5 | -0.05 → -0.05 | -0.29 → -0.27 | +0.22 | 92%raw 97% | 30% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| DAL L | 34–40 | -10.0fav 4.0 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.12 → +0.12 | -0.09 | 26%raw 28% | 30% – 94% | 2 / 3 |
| @ JAX W | 40–34 | +10.0dog 4.0 | +0.12 → +0.19 | +0.05 → +0.01 | +0.18 | 88%raw 72% | 6% – 70% | 3 / 2 |
| LA L | 12–24 | -4.0dog 8.0 | -0.11 → -0.13 | +0.06 → +0.03 | -0.16 | 15%raw 9% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 2 |
| @ GB W | 24–12 | +4.0fav 8.0 | +0.06 → +0.07 | -0.11 → -0.09 | +0.15 | 85%raw 91% | 53% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| PIT W | 24–16 | +10.5dog 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.25 | +0.04 → +0.10 | +0.15 | 84%raw 93% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CAR L | 16–24 | -10.5fav 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.23 → +0.25 | -0.24 | 7%raw 7% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| MIA L | 29–32 | +4.0dog 7.0 | +0.18 → +0.23 | +0.18 → +0.09 | +0.14 | 83%raw 49% | 12% – 84% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 32–29 | -4.0fav 7.0 | +0.18 → +0.20 | +0.18 → +0.18 | +0.02 | 55%raw 51% | 16% – 88% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG W | 20–12 | +12.5dog 4.5 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.10 → -0.05 | +0.14 | 83%raw 91% | 35% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ WAS L | 12–20 | -12.5fav 4.5 | -0.10 → -0.14 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.23 | 7%raw 9% | 1% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| NE L | 24–30 | -5.0dog 1.0 | -0.13 → -0.18 | -0.07 → -0.07 | -0.12 | 22%raw 29% | 7% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 30–24 | +5.0fav 1.0 | -0.07 → -0.01 | -0.13 → -0.12 | +0.11 | 78%raw 71% | 5% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| KC W | 30–24 | -8.5fav 14.5 | +0.12 → +0.10 | -0.14 → -0.01 | +0.11 | 78%raw 97% | 21% – 86% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 24–30 | +8.5dog 14.5 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.12 → -0.02 | -0.14 | 18%raw 3% | 14% – 79% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN W | 34–23 | +7.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → -0.00 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.11 | 77%raw 73% | 7% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ TB L | 23–34 | -7.5dog 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.08 | -0.02 → -0.08 | +0.00 | 51%raw 27% | 0% – 93% | 4 / 1 |
| TEN L | 14–17 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.06 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.04 | 60%raw 54% | 7% – 60% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LAC W | 17–14 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.06 | -0.05 → -0.03 | -0.03 | 42%raw 46% | 40% – 93% | 2 / 1 |
| DET W | 20–17 | +5.0dog 2.0 | +0.03 → +0.03 | -0.07 → -0.00 | +0.03 | 58%raw 80% | 20% – 88% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 17–20 | -5.0fav 2.0 | -0.07 → -0.14 | +0.03 → +0.02 | -0.15 | 15%raw 20% | 12% – 80% | 1 / 0 |
| PHI W | 25–20 | -3.5fav 8.5 | -0.00 → -0.07 | -0.12 → -0.08 | +0.01 | 52%raw 84% | 26% – 98% | 3 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 20–25 | +3.5dog 8.5 | -0.12 → -0.09 | -0.00 → -0.08 | -0.01 | 47%raw 16% | 2% – 74% | 1 / 3 |
| ATL L | 18–21 | +2.0dog 5.0 | -0.02 → +0.04 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.06 | 33%raw 27% | 3% – 50% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NO W | 21–18 | -2.0fav 5.0 | +0.05 → -0.01 | -0.02 → +0.00 | -0.01 | 48%raw 73% | 50% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| IND L | 36–39 | +0.5dog 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.20 | -0.14 → -0.15 | -0.06 | 35%raw 37% | 15% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ MIN W | 39–36 | -0.5fav 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.13 | -0.18 → -0.11 | -0.03 | 42%raw 63% | 0% – 85% | 3 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | CAR | 23 | +0.458 | +0.451 | +0.008 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.35 | +14.8 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | PIT | 26 | +0.372 | +0.391 | -0.018 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -2.7 | +0.20 | +12.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | HOU | 44 | +0.365 | +0.375 | -0.009 | +16.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.29 | +14.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | DAL | 43 | +0.341 | +0.248 | +0.093 | +14.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.33 | +2.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 42 | +0.316 | +0.300 | +0.016 | +13.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.31 | +6.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NYJ | 38 | +0.295 | +0.308 | -0.013 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | -5.4 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | ATL | 19 | +0.229 | +0.296 | -0.067 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.23 | -5.2 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 27 | +0.214 | +0.248 | -0.034 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.08 | -5.0 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CIN | 46 | +0.117 | +0.098 | +0.019 | +5.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.6 | 1 | -4.8 | -0.03 | +5.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | KC | 24 | +0.092 | +0.104 | -0.012 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -9.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | IND | 62 | +0.088 | +0.099 | -0.011 | +5.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 7 | -9.9 | +0.66 | -6.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TB | 42 | +0.066 | +0.056 | +0.011 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.07 | +5.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | JAX | 33 | +0.063 | +0.122 | -0.059 | +2.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.07 | +14.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | LA | 33 | +0.039 | +0.031 | +0.008 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.07 | +7.0 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | WAS | 32 | +0.029 | +0.036 | -0.006 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -2.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 33 | +0.006 | -0.060 | +0.065 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.12 | -7.5 |
| Derek Carr | LV | NE | 41 | -0.030 | -0.095 | +0.065 | -1.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.7 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.03 | -3.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CHI | 38 | -0.035 | +0.021 | -0.056 | -1.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.06 | -1.3 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | MIN | 36 | -0.072 | -0.060 | -0.011 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.9 | -0.03 | -8.6 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | DET | 39 | -0.080 | +0.019 | -0.099 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.2 | 4 | -4.5 | +0.13 | -2.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | PHI | 27 | -0.091 | -0.139 | +0.048 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -11.6 | -0.20 | -1.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | LA | GB | 26 | -0.117 | -0.132 | +0.016 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 5 | -7.0 | -0.13 | -7.6 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | NO | 30 | -0.125 | -0.194 | +0.069 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -3.6 | -0.38 | -19.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | BAL | 31 | -0.130 | -0.092 | -0.038 | -4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.04 | -2.0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | SF | 47 | -0.140 | -0.174 | +0.034 | -6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.50 | +2.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | TEN | 43 | -0.178 | -0.173 | -0.005 | -7.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 3 | -6.7 | +0.06 | +2.7 |
| Brett Rypien | DEN | ARI | 33 | -0.201 | -0.182 | -0.019 | -6.6 | 1 / 1 | -7.4 | 7 | -13.0 | -0.16 | +10.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | LAC | 26 | -0.232 | -0.245 | +0.013 | -6.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.19 | -4.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | CLE | 33 | -0.324 | -0.354 | +0.030 | -10.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.36 | -9.0 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | DEN | 23 | -0.333 | -0.350 | +0.017 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -1.4 | -0.19 | -9.4 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | NYG | 32 | -0.342 | -0.329 | -0.013 | -10.9 | 0 / 2 | -11.0 | 3 | -13.0 | -0.56 | +2.9 |
| Mac Jones | NE | LV | 32 | -0.378 | -0.294 | -0.084 | -12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.30 | -23.7 |
| Trace McSorley | ARI | DEN | 17 | -0.539 | -0.556 | +0.017 | -9.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.24 | -20.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.