Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN L | 7–41 | -24.0dog 10.0 | -0.38 → -0.34 | +0.23 → +0.14 | -0.48 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 54% | 3 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 41–7 | +24.0fav 10.0 | +0.23 → +0.24 | -0.38 → -0.37 | +0.61 | 100%raw 100% | 46% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| IND L | 0–24 | -27.0fav 3.0 | -0.44 → -0.47 | +0.11 → +0.12 | -0.59 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 3 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 24–0 | +27.0dog 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.13 | -0.44 → -0.37 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIN L | 7–24 | -14.5dog 2.5 | -0.21 → -0.18 | +0.25 → +0.17 | -0.36 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 24–7 | +14.5fav 2.5 | +0.25 → +0.24 | -0.21 → -0.22 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| SEA L | 7–27 | -11.5dog 8.5 | -0.35 → -0.30 | +0.03 → -0.03 | -0.27 | 5%raw 1% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 27–7 | +11.5fav 8.5 | +0.03 → -0.00 | -0.35 → -0.37 | +0.37 | 98%raw 99% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NE W | 17–14 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.08 → -0.07 | +0.19 | 89%raw 95% | 44% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PIT L | 14–17 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.03 | +0.14 → +0.16 | -0.19 | 11%raw 5% | 2% – 56% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA W | 42–38 | +7.0dog 3.0 | +0.45 → +0.45 | +0.27 → +0.27 | +0.18 | 88%raw 92% | 2% – 90% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BAL L | 38–42 | -7.0fav 3.0 | +0.27 → +0.29 | +0.45 → +0.46 | -0.17 | 13%raw 8% | 10% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| CHI L | 10–27 | -6.5dog 10.5 | -0.08 → -0.10 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.27 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 27–10 | +6.5fav 10.5 | +0.21 → +0.14 | -0.08 → -0.03 | +0.17 | 87%raw 98% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| TB W | 20–10 | +7.5fav 2.5 | -0.26 → -0.22 | -0.40 → -0.37 | +0.16 | 86%raw 87% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| @ NO L | 10–20 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.40 → -0.40 | -0.26 → -0.28 | -0.12 | 22%raw 13% | 0% – 71% | 5 / 1 |
| CIN L | 17–20 | -10.5fav 7.5 | +0.03 → +0.10 | -0.00 → -0.04 | +0.14 | 83%raw 61% | 8% – 52% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 20–17 | +10.5dog 7.5 | -0.00 → +0.02 | +0.03 → -0.03 | +0.05 | 63%raw 39% | 48% – 92% | 1 / 0 |
| ATL L | 27–31 | +6.5dog 10.5 | -0.17 → -0.17 | +0.01 → +0.04 | -0.21 | 9%raw 8% | 0% – 56% | 3 / 3 |
| @ LA W | 31–27 | -6.5fav 10.5 | +0.01 → -0.05 | -0.17 → -0.16 | +0.11 | 77%raw 92% | 44% – 100% | 3 / 3 |
| LAC L | 24–27 | +1.0dog 4.0 | +0.01 → -0.00 | +0.08 → -0.06 | +0.06 | 66%raw 26% | 3% – 81% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 27–24 | -1.0fav 4.0 | +0.08 → +0.08 | +0.01 → -0.02 | +0.10 | 76%raw 74% | 19% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| ARI W | 29–23 | +11.5dog 5.5 | +0.01 → -0.04 | -0.08 → -0.08 | +0.04 | 61%raw 76% | 2% – 66% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 23–29 | -11.5fav 5.5 | -0.08 → -0.08 | +0.01 → +0.04 | -0.12 | 20%raw 24% | 34% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| CAR L | 16–19 | -4.0fav 1.0 | -0.05 → -0.10 | -0.14 → -0.13 | +0.03 | 59%raw 77% | 3% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 19–16 | +4.0dog 1.0 | -0.14 → -0.13 | -0.05 → +0.01 | -0.14 | 18%raw 23% | 26% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU L | 9–16 | +3.5dog 10.5 | -0.18 → -0.17 | -0.02 → +0.03 | -0.20 | 10%raw 10% | 1% – 66% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 16–9 | -3.5fav 10.5 | -0.02 → -0.05 | -0.18 → -0.05 | +0.00 | 51%raw 90% | 34% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| NYJ W | 31–30 | +7.5dog 6.5 | +0.27 → +0.28 | +0.29 → +0.29 | -0.01 | 46%raw 44% | 0% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CLE L | 30–31 | -7.5fav 6.5 | +0.29 → +0.29 | +0.27 → +0.35 | -0.06 | 34%raw 56% | 11% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| WAS L | 27–36 | -10.0fav 1.0 | +0.05 → -0.02 | +0.06 → +0.04 | -0.06 | 34%raw 47% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 36–27 | +10.0dog 1.0 | +0.06 → +0.08 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.02 | 43%raw 53% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIA | 29 | +0.641 | +0.615 | +0.026 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +6.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 30 | +0.589 | +0.585 | +0.004 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +14.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BAL | 51 | +0.502 | +0.527 | -0.025 | +25.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.82 | +3.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | NYJ | 28 | +0.486 | +0.495 | -0.009 | +13.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.10 | +15.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | TEN | 39 | +0.425 | +0.416 | +0.009 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.39 | +3.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | CHI | 28 | +0.364 | +0.412 | -0.048 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.24 | +4.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | MIN | 34 | +0.347 | +0.349 | -0.002 | +11.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.26 | +15.0 |
| Joe Flacco | NYJ | CLE | 46 | +0.315 | +0.268 | +0.047 | +14.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.41 | +0.2 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | CIN | 31 | +0.284 | +0.262 | +0.023 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.12 | -6.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 36 | +0.156 | +0.135 | +0.021 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.16 | +4.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NO | 35 | +0.145 | +0.069 | +0.076 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.45 | -13.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | PIT | 35 | +0.124 | +0.148 | -0.024 | +4.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -5.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | DAL | 43 | +0.115 | +0.022 | +0.093 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.9 | +0.13 | -2.3 |
| Derek Carr | LV | ARI | 40 | +0.103 | +0.114 | -0.011 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.34 | -5.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ATL | 37 | +0.099 | +0.175 | -0.076 | +3.7 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.02 | +7.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | SEA | 22 | +0.062 | +0.101 | -0.039 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -3.6 |
| Jared Goff | DET | WAS | 37 | +0.026 | +0.033 | -0.007 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.04 | -6.6 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | HOU | 34 | -0.011 | +0.009 | -0.020 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.32 | -12.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 50 | -0.029 | -0.018 | -0.010 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | -13.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.27 | +4.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | LA | 30 | -0.048 | -0.056 | +0.007 | -1.5 | 2 / 1 | -11.3 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.28 | +1.3 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | DET | 53 | -0.050 | +0.046 | -0.096 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 5 | -8.3 | -0.04 | +0.5 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | NE | 37 | -0.064 | -0.129 | +0.065 | -2.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.13 | -4.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | CAR | 37 | -0.076 | -0.072 | -0.004 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.01 | -1.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | SF | 32 | -0.219 | -0.247 | +0.028 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.06 | +13.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LV | 51 | -0.234 | -0.154 | -0.080 | -11.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | -5.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | PHI | 48 | -0.250 | -0.292 | +0.042 | -12.0 | 3 / 0 | -13.1 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.13 | -7.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | DEN | 41 | -0.259 | -0.279 | +0.021 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.62 | -13.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | NYG | 31 | -0.261 | -0.248 | -0.012 | -8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.37 | -15.7 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | TB | 46 | -0.351 | -0.352 | +0.000 | -16.2 | 3 / 0 | -17.8 | 6 | -5.0 | -0.30 | -2.3 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | GB | 14 | -0.451 | -0.459 | +0.008 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.00 | -1.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | BUF | 22 | -0.468 | -0.524 | +0.056 | -10.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.4 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.07 | -11.2 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | JAX | 35 | -0.656 | -0.581 | -0.075 | -23.0 | 3 / 0 | -10.9 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.12 | -5.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.