Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX W | 38–10 | +34.5dog 6.5 | +0.21 → +0.21 | -0.26 → -0.29 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 10–38 | -34.5fav 6.5 | -0.26 → -0.28 | +0.21 → +0.21 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 0 |
| CIN W | 27–12 | +8.5fav 6.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.32 → -0.26 | +0.31 | 97%raw 99% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ NYJ L | 12–27 | -8.5dog 6.5 | -0.32 → -0.31 | +0.06 → -0.00 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 60% | 4 / 1 |
| PHI W | 24–8 | +10.0fav 6.0 | +0.03 → +0.05 | -0.30 → -0.26 | +0.31 | 97%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 8–24 | -10.0dog 6.0 | -0.30 → -0.28 | +0.03 → -0.05 | -0.23 | 7%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL W | 37–26 | +8.5fav 2.5 | +0.22 → +0.28 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.25 | 94%raw 94% | 25% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| @ NE L | 26–37 | -8.5dog 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.01 | +0.22 → +0.22 | -0.21 | 8%raw 6% | 0% – 75% | 4 / 2 |
| LA W | 20–12 | +4.5fav 3.5 | +0.22 → +0.23 | -0.04 → -0.00 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 45% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 12–20 | -4.5dog 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.22 → +0.26 | -0.29 | 4%raw 3% | 1% – 55% | 0 / 1 |
| DAL W | 23–16 | +8.0dog 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.14 | -0.07 → -0.06 | +0.20 | 90%raw 97% | 23% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 16–23 | -8.0fav 1.0 | -0.07 → +0.00 | +0.18 → +0.15 | -0.15 | 16%raw 3% | 1% – 77% | 1 / 0 |
| SF L | 10–11 | -2.0fav 1.0 | -0.30 → -0.29 | -0.23 → -0.19 | -0.10 | 24%raw 28% | 7% – 79% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 11–10 | +2.0dog 1.0 | -0.23 → -0.18 | -0.30 → -0.37 | +0.19 | 90%raw 72% | 21% – 93% | 0 / 3 |
| BUF L | 19–21 | -6.0fav 4.0 | +0.11 → +0.12 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.01 | 47%raw 41% | 11% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 21–19 | +6.0dog 4.0 | +0.13 → +0.19 | +0.11 → +0.02 | +0.17 | 87%raw 59% | 26% – 89% | 0 / 1 |
| GB W | 14–12 | +3.0dog 1.0 | -0.10 → -0.08 | -0.19 → -0.21 | +0.13 | 80%raw 78% | 35% – 96% | 2 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 12–14 | -3.0fav 1.0 | -0.19 → -0.21 | -0.10 → -0.14 | -0.07 | 30%raw 22% | 4% – 65% | 2 / 2 |
| KC L | 17–20 | -7.5fav 4.5 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.16 → -0.09 | +0.12 | 79%raw 92% | 4% – 83% | 1 / 1 |
| @ IND W | 20–17 | +7.5dog 4.5 | -0.16 → -0.18 | +0.02 → -0.13 | -0.05 | 37%raw 8% | 17% – 96% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 17–29 | -7.5dog 4.5 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.15 | 16%raw 12% | 1% – 66% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 29–17 | +7.5fav 4.5 | +0.11 → +0.09 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.11 | 78%raw 88% | 34% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL W | 27–23 | +5.0dog 1.0 | +0.32 → +0.30 | +0.19 → +0.19 | +0.11 | 78%raw 85% | 30% – 96% | 2 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 23–27 | -5.0fav 1.0 | +0.19 → +0.14 | +0.32 → +0.35 | -0.21 | 8%raw 15% | 4% – 70% | 1 / 2 |
| DET L | 24–28 | +2.5dog 6.5 | +0.04 → +0.03 | -0.02 → -0.02 | +0.05 | 63%raw 70% | 6% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 28–24 | -2.5fav 6.5 | -0.02 → -0.09 | +0.04 → +0.03 | -0.11 | 22%raw 30% | 9% – 94% | 1 / 1 |
| LV L | 22–24 | -3.5fav 1.5 | +0.12 → +0.13 | +0.19 → +0.22 | -0.09 | 27%raw 28% | 2% – 48% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 24–22 | +3.5dog 1.5 | +0.19 → +0.15 | +0.12 → +0.12 | +0.02 | 57%raw 72% | 52% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| NO L | 14–22 | -10.0fav 2.0 | -0.06 → -0.05 | -0.11 → -0.06 | +0.01 | 53%raw 67% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 22–14 | +10.0dog 2.0 | -0.11 → -0.06 | -0.06 → -0.02 | -0.04 | 39%raw 33% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| HOU L | 20–23 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.17 | -0.03 → +0.02 | -0.19 | 11%raw 29% | 13% – 65% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CHI W | 23–20 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.03 → -0.05 | -0.09 → +0.04 | -0.09 | 26%raw 71% | 35% – 87% | 2 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | SEA | 23 | +0.623 | +0.649 | -0.026 | +14.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.49 | +12.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 19 | +0.530 | +0.456 | +0.074 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.36 | +5.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | NYJ | 38 | +0.421 | +0.431 | -0.010 | +16.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.30 | +4.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 38 | +0.406 | +0.405 | +0.001 | +15.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.25 | +4.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LAC | 40 | +0.395 | +0.368 | +0.027 | +15.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +2.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 26 | +0.385 | +0.389 | -0.004 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.23 | +6.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | LV | 28 | +0.368 | +0.436 | -0.068 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.33 | +6.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NE | 33 | +0.291 | +0.217 | +0.074 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -4.1 | +0.04 | +4.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | IND | 37 | +0.201 | +0.209 | -0.007 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.1 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.23 | -4.4 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | CAR | 42 | +0.190 | +0.189 | +0.001 | +8.0 | 2 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.09 | +4.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 40 | +0.188 | +0.194 | -0.006 | +7.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -1.3 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ATL | 46 | +0.184 | +0.258 | -0.074 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.16 | +9.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | TB | 36 | +0.137 | +0.125 | +0.012 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +10.9 |
| Derek Carr | LV | TEN | 46 | +0.120 | +0.117 | +0.003 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.05 | +6.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 66 | +0.110 | +0.096 | +0.014 | +7.3 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 4 | -10.3 | -0.11 | +4.3 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | NYG | 31 | +0.105 | +0.109 | -0.004 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +4.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | GB | 46 | +0.023 | +0.003 | +0.020 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.30 | +4.9 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | PIT | 33 | +0.018 | +0.044 | -0.026 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | -0.07 | -0.8 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | CLE | 33 | -0.006 | -0.043 | +0.037 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.11 | +0.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | BAL | 36 | -0.039 | -0.002 | -0.037 | -1.4 | 3 / 0 | -10.4 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.10 | +6.4 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 60 | -0.076 | -0.081 | +0.005 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.14 | -5.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | NO | 28 | -0.101 | -0.171 | +0.070 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.18 | -19.4 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | KC | 42 | -0.108 | -0.096 | -0.012 | -4.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 5 | -11.9 | +0.09 | +2.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | DET | 41 | -0.117 | -0.018 | -0.099 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.24 | -4.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | DEN | 33 | -0.150 | -0.173 | +0.024 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.75 | -6.5 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DAL | 42 | -0.192 | -0.278 | +0.086 | -8.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 5 | -6.1 | -0.42 | -6.6 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | CHI | 33 | -0.237 | -0.174 | -0.063 | -7.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.42 | -2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | JAX | 46 | -0.262 | -0.197 | -0.065 | -12.0 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 1 | -5.0 | -0.17 | -6.7 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | SF | 38 | -0.279 | -0.310 | +0.030 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.39 | -4.9 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | PHI | 53 | -0.369 | -0.408 | +0.039 | -19.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 9 | -20.3 | -0.46 | -7.6 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | HOU | 22 | -0.375 | -0.351 | -0.023 | -8.2 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 5 | -6.5 | -0.42 | -19.0 |
| Joe Flacco | NYJ | CIN | 56 | -0.411 | -0.419 | +0.007 | -23.0 | 2 / 2 | -16.3 | 4 | -12.2 | -0.33 | -4.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.