Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE W | 38–15 | +25.5dog 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.27 → -0.29 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CLE L | 15–38 | -25.5fav 2.5 | -0.27 → -0.23 | +0.17 → +0.18 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 3 / 1 |
| NYJ W | 27–10 | +24.5dog 7.5 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.34 → -0.39 | +0.40 | 99%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ GB L | 10–27 | -24.5fav 7.5 | -0.34 → -0.36 | +0.03 → +0.10 | -0.46 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| SF L | 14–28 | -17.5fav 3.5 | -0.12 → -0.19 | +0.12 → +0.15 | -0.33 | 2%raw 4% | 0% – 50% | 3 / 0 |
| @ ATL W | 28–14 | +17.5dog 3.5 | +0.12 → +0.19 | -0.12 → -0.18 | +0.37 | 98%raw 96% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| CAR L | 10–24 | -4.0dog 10.0 | -0.35 → -0.36 | +0.01 → +0.03 | -0.39 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 66% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 24–10 | +4.0fav 10.0 | +0.01 → +0.02 | -0.35 → -0.31 | +0.33 | 97%raw 99% | 34% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN W | 30–26 | +1.0fav 3.0 | +0.31 → +0.37 | +0.11 → +0.16 | +0.22 | 92%raw 94% | 14% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NO L | 26–30 | -1.0dog 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.13 | +0.31 → +0.25 | -0.12 | 20%raw 6% | 3% – 86% | 0 / 0 |
| BUF W | 24–20 | +1.5fav 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.05 → -0.10 | +0.21 | 92%raw 73% | 21% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| @ KC L | 20–24 | -1.5dog 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.10 | +0.12 → +0.03 | +0.07 | 68%raw 27% | 2% – 79% | 2 / 1 |
| DAL L | 17–26 | -2.5dog 6.5 | -0.06 → -0.03 | +0.03 → -0.05 | +0.02 | 55%raw 22% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 26–17 | +2.5fav 6.5 | +0.03 → +0.10 | -0.06 → -0.10 | +0.21 | 91%raw 78% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| DEN L | 16–19 | +0.5dog 3.5 | -0.15 → -0.16 | -0.16 → -0.20 | +0.03 | 59%raw 52% | 12% – 77% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 19–16 | -0.5fav 3.5 | -0.16 → -0.14 | -0.15 → -0.11 | -0.04 | 39%raw 48% | 23% – 88% | 1 / 0 |
| TB L | 18–20 | -12.0fav 10.0 | +0.09 → +0.06 | +0.03 → +0.04 | +0.02 | 55%raw 68% | 3% – 52% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 20–18 | +12.0dog 10.0 | +0.03 → +0.05 | +0.09 → +0.08 | -0.03 | 42%raw 32% | 48% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| MIN W | 24–16 | +5.0fav 3.0 | -0.13 → -0.13 | -0.12 → -0.13 | +0.00 | 50%raw 45% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ MIA L | 16–24 | -5.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.14 | -0.13 → -0.14 | -0.00 | 50%raw 55% | 0% – 72% | 3 / 0 |
| BAL L | 20–24 | -9.5fav 5.5 | +0.12 → +0.08 | +0.13 → +0.15 | -0.07 | 33%raw 49% | 2% – 85% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 24–20 | +9.5dog 5.5 | +0.13 → +0.12 | +0.12 → +0.12 | -0.00 | 50%raw 51% | 15% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| ARI L | 9–19 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.20 → -0.24 | -0.19 → -0.21 | -0.03 | 41%raw 46% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 19–9 | +12.5dog 2.5 | -0.19 → -0.20 | -0.20 → -0.17 | -0.02 | 44%raw 54% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| JAX L | 27–34 | -6.0dog 1.0 | +0.22 → +0.24 | +0.21 → +0.30 | -0.06 | 34%raw 52% | 3% – 83% | 1 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 34–27 | +6.0fav 1.0 | +0.21 → +0.20 | +0.22 → +0.22 | -0.03 | 42%raw 48% | 17% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| WAS W | 12–7 | +4.0fav 1.0 | -0.09 → -0.17 | -0.11 → -0.07 | -0.10 | 24%raw 56% | 30% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 7–12 | -4.0dog 1.0 | -0.11 → -0.10 | -0.09 → -0.04 | -0.05 | 35%raw 44% | 4% – 70% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | TB | 13 | +0.806 | +0.791 | +0.015 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.40 | +9.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | SF | 16 | +0.373 | +0.326 | +0.047 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +19.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | NO | 41 | +0.321 | +0.239 | +0.082 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | +0.45 | +6.4 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | BAL | 31 | +0.298 | +0.329 | -0.030 | +9.2 | 0 / 1 | -0.3 | 4 | -4.3 | +0.33 | +9.9 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | CLE | 36 | +0.277 | +0.234 | +0.043 | +10.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 2 | -6.0 | +0.31 | +9.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 41 | +0.269 | +0.272 | -0.004 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.64 | +5.2 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | JAX | 59 | +0.229 | +0.283 | -0.054 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.72 | +3.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 29 | +0.205 | +0.112 | +0.093 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.1 | +0.10 | -5.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 43 | +0.172 | +0.102 | +0.070 | +7.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.03 | +1.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | PIT | 42 | +0.164 | +0.187 | -0.023 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.07 | +0.8 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | CIN | 33 | +0.121 | +0.101 | +0.020 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.11 | -7.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CAR | 34 | +0.088 | +0.090 | -0.001 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -8.1 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.15 | +8.3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIA | MIN | 40 | +0.064 | +0.072 | -0.008 | +2.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.8 | 5 | -7.5 | -0.22 | +5.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 27 | +0.013 | +0.023 | -0.010 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.7 | +0.04 | +15.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | ATL | 41 | +0.008 | +0.087 | -0.079 | +0.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -0.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NYG | 34 | -0.053 | -0.047 | -0.006 | -1.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.0 | 2 | -5.7 | -0.33 | -7.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | MIA | 34 | -0.125 | -0.132 | +0.006 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.00 | +1.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | TB | 19 | -0.128 | -0.143 | +0.015 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.11 | +1.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | NE | 50 | -0.170 | -0.232 | +0.062 | -8.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.9 | 4 | -11.1 | -0.24 | -9.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | GB | 20 | -0.177 | -0.191 | +0.014 | -3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.10 | -9.8 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | PHI | 38 | -0.178 | -0.221 | +0.043 | -6.8 | 3 / 0 | -10.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -17.3 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | MIN | 14 | -0.179 | -0.171 | -0.008 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | 36 | -0.192 | -0.175 | -0.017 | -6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.8 | -0.15 | -3.0 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LAC | 32 | -0.200 | -0.213 | +0.013 | -6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.50 | -4.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 59 | -0.245 | -0.267 | +0.021 | -14.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.79 | -5.3 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 43 | -0.318 | -0.271 | -0.046 | -13.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 6 | -10.6 | -0.32 | +0.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | NYJ | 45 | -0.324 | -0.295 | -0.029 | -14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.8 | -0.35 | -2.0 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | CHI | 26 | -0.410 | -0.343 | -0.067 | -10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.29 | -16.3 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | WAS | 32 | -0.463 | -0.449 | -0.014 | -14.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 5 | -6.9 | -0.82 | -6.1 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | LA | 18 | -0.601 | -0.594 | -0.007 | -10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.30 | -19.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.