Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN L | 10–35 | -20.0dog 5.0 | -0.23 → -0.20 | +0.32 → +0.25 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 35–10 | +20.0fav 5.0 | +0.32 → +0.34 | -0.23 → -0.21 | +0.55 | 100%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| IND L | 19–54 | -24.0dog 11.0 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.23 → +0.20 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 62% | 5 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 54–19 | +24.0fav 11.0 | +0.23 → +0.25 | -0.29 → -0.22 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| JAX L | 14–40 | -25.0dog 1.0 | -0.11 → -0.18 | +0.29 → +0.28 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 40–14 | +25.0fav 1.0 | +0.29 → +0.27 | -0.11 → -0.11 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA L | 17–33 | -11.5dog 4.5 | -0.33 → -0.27 | -0.00 → -0.06 | -0.21 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 68% | 4 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 33–17 | +11.5fav 4.5 | -0.00 → +0.01 | -0.33 → -0.34 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| BUF W | 24–10 | +10.5fav 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.23 | -0.03 → -0.02 | +0.25 | 94%raw 93% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NE L | 10–24 | -10.5dog 3.5 | -0.03 → +0.02 | +0.17 → +0.08 | -0.06 | 34%raw 7% | 0% – 64% | 0 / 1 |
| SEA W | 27–23 | -3.0fav 7.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | -0.05 → -0.02 | +0.18 | 88%raw 93% | 28% – 98% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 23–27 | +3.0dog 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.08 | +0.15 → +0.14 | -0.22 | 8%raw 7% | 2% – 72% | 2 / 2 |
| KC L | 24–27 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.24 → +0.27 | +0.26 → +0.21 | +0.06 | 66%raw 43% | 2% – 75% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 27–24 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.26 → +0.26 | +0.24 → +0.10 | +0.16 | 86%raw 57% | 25% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| PIT W | 19–16 | +2.0fav 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.12 | -0.01 → +0.01 | +0.11 | 78%raw 93% | 43% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 16–19 | -2.0dog 1.0 | -0.01 → -0.04 | +0.18 → +0.20 | -0.24 | 7%raw 7% | 2% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| WAS T | 20–20 | -2.5fav 2.5 | +0.04 → -0.00 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.09 | 72%raw 88% | 2% – 83% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG T | 20–20 | +2.5dog 2.5 | -0.10 → -0.08 | +0.04 → +0.10 | -0.18 | 12%raw 12% | 17% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| CLE W | 27–14 | +5.5fav 7.5 | -0.23 → -0.26 | -0.44 → -0.31 | +0.05 | 63%raw 94% | 25% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| @ HOU L | 14–27 | -5.5dog 7.5 | -0.44 → -0.46 | -0.23 → -0.25 | -0.20 | 9%raw 6% | 0% – 75% | 3 / 2 |
| LAC L | 20–27 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.11 → -0.16 | -0.09 → -0.09 | -0.07 | 33%raw 45% | 1% – 81% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LV W | 27–20 | +4.5fav 2.5 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.11 → -0.14 | +0.04 | 61%raw 55% | 19% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| NO L | 16–17 | +2.5dog 3.5 | -0.03 → -0.01 | -0.03 → -0.04 | +0.03 | 58%raw 49% | 27% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ TB W | 17–16 | -2.5fav 3.5 | -0.03 → +0.03 | -0.03 → +0.01 | +0.02 | 54%raw 51% | 1% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| DEN L | 9–10 | +8.5dog 9.5 | -0.14 → -0.15 | -0.14 → -0.15 | +0.00 | 50%raw 52% | 30% – 90% | 0 / 2 |
| @ BAL W | 10–9 | -8.5fav 9.5 | -0.14 → -0.12 | -0.14 → -0.09 | -0.04 | 40%raw 48% | 10% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 22–27 | -2.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.07 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.08 | 28%raw 30% | 3% – 52% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 27–22 | +2.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.00 | -0.05 → +0.02 | -0.01 | 47%raw 70% | 48% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| GB W | 28–19 | +5.0fav 4.0 | +0.17 → +0.10 | +0.12 → +0.18 | -0.07 | 31%raw 65% | 11% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CHI L | 19–28 | -5.0dog 4.0 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.17 → +0.14 | -0.03 | 42%raw 35% | 1% – 89% | 3 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | KC | 32 | +0.619 | +0.617 | +0.002 | +19.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.64 | +10.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TEN | 41 | +0.458 | +0.448 | +0.010 | +18.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.7 | +0.45 | +14.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | JAX | 43 | +0.454 | +0.503 | -0.049 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.20 | +4.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 35 | +0.412 | +0.336 | +0.076 | +14.4 | 0 / 1 | -3.5 | 2 | -4.3 | +0.26 | +3.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CIN | 29 | +0.284 | +0.258 | +0.026 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.15 | +5.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 43 | +0.259 | +0.246 | +0.013 | +11.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.5 | 4 | -8.3 | +0.54 | +6.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | ATL | 28 | +0.253 | +0.326 | -0.073 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.9 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | GB | 25 | +0.199 | +0.177 | +0.022 | +5.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | +14.5 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | TB | 30 | +0.134 | +0.122 | +0.013 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.06 | +8.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | IND | 31 | +0.101 | +0.110 | -0.009 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.07 | -4.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | CHI | 32 | +0.088 | +0.143 | -0.055 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -3.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | BUF | 37 | +0.088 | +0.021 | +0.067 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.03 | -5.1 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NO | 55 | +0.082 | +0.008 | +0.074 | +4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.47 | -2.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | MIA | 40 | +0.027 | +0.016 | +0.011 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.4 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.16 | -0.3 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | DEN | 33 | +0.003 | -0.020 | +0.023 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.07 | +16.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | BAL | 24 | -0.003 | +0.033 | -0.037 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.03 | +16.0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | NYG | 46 | -0.013 | -0.007 | -0.006 | -0.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 5 | -9.7 | -0.18 | +2.7 |
| Derek Carr | LV | LAC | 30 | -0.065 | -0.081 | +0.016 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.20 | -5.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | NYJ | 37 | -0.071 | -0.051 | -0.020 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.07 | -2.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | WAS | 33 | -0.076 | -0.069 | -0.007 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.1 | +0.01 | +15.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 52 | -0.091 | -0.010 | -0.081 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.12 | -4.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | DET | 34 | -0.137 | -0.036 | -0.100 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.03 | -10.1 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | DAL | 41 | -0.137 | -0.221 | +0.084 | -5.6 | 3 / 1 | -19.3 | 3 | -10.3 | -0.08 | -10.4 |
| Mike White | NYJ | MIN | 58 | -0.152 | -0.139 | -0.013 | -8.8 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.57 | -9.8 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | HOU | 23 | -0.222 | -0.198 | -0.024 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.36 | -13.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | PIT | 25 | -0.232 | -0.200 | -0.032 | -5.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.02 | -5.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | PHI | 28 | -0.268 | -0.311 | +0.044 | -7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -10.5 | -0.06 | -2.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | SF | 36 | -0.285 | -0.314 | +0.028 | -10.3 | 2 / 1 | -18.3 | 3 | -11.7 | -0.09 | -8.2 |
| John Wolford | LA | SEA | 30 | -0.313 | -0.266 | -0.047 | -9.4 | 2 / 0 | -6.2 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.21 | -8.3 |
| Kyle Allen | HOU | CLE | 40 | -0.454 | -0.479 | +0.026 | -18.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.37 | -13.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.