Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL L | 6–26 | -27.5fav 7.5 | -0.48 → -0.48 | -0.19 → -0.15 | -0.33 | 2%raw 2% | 0% – 43% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 26–6 | +27.5dog 7.5 | -0.19 → -0.13 | -0.48 → -0.53 | +0.41 | 99%raw 98% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI L | 13–38 | -11.0dog 14.0 | -0.36 → -0.31 | +0.05 → -0.01 | -0.30 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 4 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 38–13 | +11.0fav 14.0 | +0.05 → +0.05 | -0.36 → -0.34 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| KC W | 31–13 | +9.0fav 9.0 | +0.26 → +0.22 | -0.16 → -0.16 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LV L | 13–31 | -9.0dog 9.0 | -0.16 → -0.17 | +0.26 → +0.12 | -0.29 | 4%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 2 / 0 |
| DET W | 20–16 | +9.5dog 5.5 | +0.15 → +0.14 | -0.15 → -0.19 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 20% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ GB L | 16–20 | -9.5fav 5.5 | -0.15 → -0.23 | +0.15 → +0.14 | -0.37 | 2%raw 1% | 1% – 80% | 2 / 0 |
| MIN W | 29–13 | +9.5fav 6.5 | +0.25 → +0.19 | -0.14 → -0.09 | +0.28 | 96%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 13–29 | -9.5dog 6.5 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.25 → +0.26 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 2 |
| TB L | 17–30 | -7.0dog 6.0 | -0.17 → -0.24 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.31 | 3%raw 5% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 30–17 | +7.0fav 6.0 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.17 → -0.19 | +0.26 | 95%raw 95% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NE L | 23–35 | -4.0dog 8.0 | -0.02 → +0.03 | +0.10 → +0.01 | +0.02 | 55%raw 16% | 0% – 62% | 3 / 2 |
| @ BUF W | 35–23 | +4.0fav 8.0 | +0.10 → +0.16 | -0.02 → -0.01 | +0.17 | 87%raw 84% | 38% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| LAC L | 28–31 | +3.0dog 6.0 | +0.04 → +0.06 | +0.15 → +0.20 | -0.14 | 17%raw 18% | 3% – 73% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 31–28 | -3.0fav 6.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | +0.04 → +0.01 | +0.14 | 82%raw 82% | 27% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| NYG L | 16–22 | +10.5dog 16.5 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.00 → -0.08 | +0.13 | 81%raw 55% | 1% – 43% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 22–16 | -10.5fav 16.5 | -0.00 → -0.05 | +0.01 → +0.03 | -0.07 | 30%raw 45% | 57% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL L | 16–27 | +0.0dog 11.0 | -0.32 → -0.31 | -0.20 → -0.27 | -0.04 | 38%raw 16% | 0% – 45% | 4 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 27–16 | +0.0fav 11.0 | -0.20 → -0.22 | -0.32 → -0.34 | +0.12 | 79%raw 84% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| CLE L | 14–28 | -11.5dog 2.5 | -0.01 → -0.04 | +0.06 → +0.08 | -0.12 | 21%raw 26% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 28–14 | +11.5fav 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.06 | -0.01 → -0.03 | +0.09 | 73%raw 74% | 37% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| LA L | 16–19 | +2.5dog 5.5 | -0.12 → -0.15 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.04 | 40%raw 44% | 5% – 79% | 1 / 2 |
| @ SEA W | 19–16 | -2.5fav 5.5 | -0.10 → -0.10 | -0.12 → -0.10 | -0.00 | 49%raw 56% | 21% – 95% | 2 / 1 |
| TEN L | 16–20 | +2.0dog 6.0 | -0.09 → -0.12 | -0.11 → -0.11 | -0.01 | 48%raw 55% | 3% – 77% | 2 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 20–16 | -2.0fav 6.0 | -0.11 → -0.10 | -0.09 → -0.07 | -0.03 | 42%raw 45% | 23% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| CAR W | 10–7 | +6.5dog 3.5 | -0.22 → -0.17 | -0.18 → -0.15 | -0.02 | 44%raw 39% | 18% – 78% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 7–10 | -6.5fav 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.18 | -0.22 → -0.17 | -0.01 | 47%raw 61% | 22% – 82% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 6–11 | -1.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.14 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.04 | 39%raw 32% | 8% – 60% | 0 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 11–6 | +1.5fav 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.14 → -0.08 | -0.02 | 45%raw 68% | 40% – 92% | 0 / 0 |
| HOU W | 32–31 | +4.0dog 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.08 | -0.08 → -0.01 | -0.07 | 32%raw 50% | 7% – 89% | 3 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 31–32 | -4.0fav 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.11 | -0.08 → +0.05 | -0.16 | 14%raw 50% | 11% – 93% | 2 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | 20 | +0.788 | +0.831 | -0.042 | +15.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +23.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 38 | +0.443 | +0.406 | +0.037 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.28 | -2.0 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | CHI | 13 | +0.387 | +0.429 | -0.042 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +16.3 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | CLE | 31 | +0.373 | +0.328 | +0.045 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.21 | -13.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 33 | +0.330 | +0.256 | +0.074 | +10.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.23 | +0.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | 24 | +0.241 | +0.249 | -0.008 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | +0.20 | +4.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 35 | +0.239 | +0.214 | +0.025 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.24 | -0.0 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | TB | 32 | +0.219 | +0.206 | +0.013 | +7.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 2 | -7.2 | +0.29 | +6.8 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LAC | 26 | +0.176 | +0.156 | +0.021 | +4.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.15 | +1.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | IND | 40 | +0.175 | +0.182 | -0.007 | +7.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.49 | -1.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 33 | +0.134 | +0.132 | +0.003 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.18 | +3.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | ATL | 17 | +0.094 | +0.176 | -0.082 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +6.8 |
| Mac Jones | NE | BUF | 42 | +0.024 | -0.041 | +0.065 | +1.0 | 3 / 0 | -12.9 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.13 | +0.5 |
| Joe Flacco | NYJ | MIA | 33 | +0.011 | +0.002 | +0.009 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | -6.6 |
| Davis Webb | NYG | PHI | 41 | -0.015 | -0.060 | +0.045 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.17 | -7.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 28 | -0.040 | +0.036 | -0.076 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.0 | +0.19 | +6.7 |
| Joshua Dobbs | TEN | JAX | 33 | -0.077 | -0.017 | -0.060 | -2.6 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 4 | -11.7 | -0.58 | +10.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 38 | -0.129 | -0.120 | -0.009 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.07 | -4.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | PIT | 35 | -0.137 | -0.109 | -0.028 | -4.8 | 2 / 0 | -6.6 | 7 | -8.7 | -0.07 | +1.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | DET | 29 | -0.144 | -0.043 | -0.101 | -4.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -4.8 | -0.12 | +3.5 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | CAR | 26 | -0.199 | -0.190 | -0.008 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.38 | -9.9 |
| Nathan Peterman | CHI | MIN | 20 | -0.201 | -0.184 | -0.017 | -4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | -0.10 | -7.8 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 44 | -0.224 | -0.182 | -0.042 | -9.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.9 | -0.05 | -5.1 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 33 | -0.230 | -0.235 | +0.005 | -7.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 3 | -2.5 | -0.24 | +0.6 |
| Jarrett Stidham | LV | KC | 42 | -0.239 | -0.226 | -0.013 | -10.0 | 1 / 1 | -4.7 | 6 | -11.5 | -0.22 | -2.8 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | NYJ | 32 | -0.248 | -0.221 | -0.026 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.17 | +7.6 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | DAL | 22 | -0.253 | -0.339 | +0.086 | -5.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.09 | -4.9 |
| David Blough | ARI | SF | 21 | -0.287 | -0.313 | +0.027 | -6.0 | 2 / 1 | -12.5 | 3 | -8.5 | -0.07 | +6.9 |
| Anthony Brown | BAL | CIN | 46 | -0.312 | -0.321 | +0.010 | -14.3 | 2 / 1 | -14.7 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.34 | -21.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 38 | -0.365 | -0.347 | -0.018 | -13.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.20 | -24.0 |
| Sam Ehlinger | IND | HOU | 37 | -0.377 | -0.352 | -0.025 | -13.9 | 2 / 0 | -14.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.65 | +0.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | LA | SEA | 31 | -0.419 | -0.370 | -0.048 | -13.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 5 | -8.5 | -0.02 | -10.3 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | NO | 17 | -0.699 | -0.759 | +0.060 | -11.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -1.2 | -0.49 | -21.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.