Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT L | 3–38 | -21.0dog 14.0 | -0.12 → -0.08 | +0.40 → +0.32 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 52% | 1 / 2 |
| @ BUF W | 38–3 | +21.0fav 14.0 | +0.40 → +0.39 | -0.12 → -0.11 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 48% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| DET L | 0–29 | -26.0dog 3.0 | -0.44 → -0.39 | +0.08 → +0.09 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NE W | 29–0 | +26.0fav 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.01 | -0.44 → -0.47 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| SF W | 37–15 | +16.0fav 6.0 | +0.27 → +0.29 | -0.16 → -0.11 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 15–37 | -16.0dog 6.0 | -0.16 → -0.10 | +0.27 → +0.22 | -0.32 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA L | 17–40 | -26.0fav 3.0 | -0.22 → -0.23 | +0.14 → +0.21 | -0.44 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 53% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NYJ W | 40–17 | +26.0dog 3.0 | +0.14 → +0.15 | -0.22 → -0.23 | +0.38 | 99%raw 99% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYG W | 27–22 | +13.5dog 8.5 | +0.28 → +0.28 | +0.07 → +0.03 | +0.25 | 94%raw 95% | 13% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| @ GB L | 22–27 | -13.5fav 8.5 | +0.07 → +0.02 | +0.28 → +0.31 | -0.29 | 4%raw 5% | 2% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
| DAL W | 22–10 | +17.5dog 5.5 | -0.10 → -0.10 | -0.27 → -0.26 | +0.15 | 85%raw 91% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ LA L | 10–22 | -17.5fav 5.5 | -0.27 → -0.21 | -0.10 → -0.14 | -0.07 | 32%raw 9% | 0% – 56% | 3 / 0 |
| LAC W | 30–28 | +1.0fav 1.0 | +0.29 → +0.29 | +0.18 → +0.17 | +0.13 | 81%raw 83% | 15% – 93% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE L | 28–30 | -1.0dog 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.17 | +0.29 → +0.27 | -0.10 | 25%raw 17% | 7% – 85% | 1 / 0 |
| LV L | 29–30 | +6.5dog 7.5 | +0.19 → +0.18 | +0.22 → +0.08 | +0.10 | 76%raw 39% | 7% – 89% | 0 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 30–29 | -6.5fav 7.5 | +0.22 → +0.18 | +0.19 → +0.19 | -0.01 | 46%raw 61% | 11% – 93% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN L | 17–19 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.08 | -0.04 → -0.05 | -0.03 | 43%raw 43% | 12% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 19–17 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.03 | -0.07 → -0.13 | +0.10 | 76%raw 57% | 43% – 88% | 1 / 1 |
| CHI L | 22–29 | +3.0dog 10.0 | +0.03 → +0.01 | +0.22 → +0.23 | -0.21 | 8%raw 7% | 1% – 51% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 29–22 | -3.0fav 10.0 | +0.22 → +0.16 | +0.03 → +0.08 | +0.08 | 70%raw 93% | 49% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI W | 20–17 | -2.5fav 5.5 | +0.14 → +0.15 | +0.10 → +0.14 | +0.01 | 52%raw 64% | 45% – 95% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 17–20 | +2.5dog 5.5 | +0.10 → +0.14 | +0.14 → +0.07 | +0.07 | 69%raw 36% | 5% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| SEA L | 32–39 | -1.5dog 5.5 | +0.02 → +0.07 | +0.08 → +0.12 | -0.05 | 36%raw 30% | 1% – 73% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NO W | 39–32 | +1.5fav 5.5 | +0.08 → +0.05 | +0.02 → +0.01 | +0.04 | 62%raw 70% | 27% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| HOU W | 13–6 | +14.0dog 7.0 | -0.06 → -0.08 | -0.11 → -0.11 | +0.03 | 58%raw 66% | 27% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 6–13 | -14.0fav 7.0 | -0.11 → -0.14 | -0.06 → +0.07 | -0.21 | 9%raw 34% | 1% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| TEN W | 21–17 | +3.0fav 1.0 | -0.02 → +0.00 | -0.05 → +0.01 | -0.00 | 49%raw 60% | 26% – 95% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 17–21 | -3.0dog 1.0 | -0.05 → -0.04 | -0.02 → +0.01 | -0.05 | 37%raw 40% | 5% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| ATL L | 15–21 | +4.5dog 10.5 | +0.07 → +0.09 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.04 | 40%raw 29% | 1% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 21–15 | -4.5fav 10.5 | +0.13 → +0.08 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.01 | 46%raw 71% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| IND W | 12–9 | +6.5dog 3.5 | -0.20 → -0.19 | -0.21 → -0.16 | -0.02 | 43%raw 52% | 8% – 76% | 2 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 9–12 | -6.5fav 3.5 | -0.21 → -0.21 | -0.20 → -0.13 | -0.08 | 30%raw 48% | 24% – 92% | 2 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | PIT | 31 | +0.790 | +0.802 | -0.012 | +24.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +4.7 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | CAR | 32 | +0.584 | +0.573 | +0.011 | +18.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.23 | -5.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | GB | 28 | +0.510 | +0.478 | +0.032 | +14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.46 | +11.3 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NO | 29 | +0.352 | +0.272 | +0.080 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.8 | +0.00 | +2.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | MIN | 24 | +0.313 | +0.312 | +0.000 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.07 | +2.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | LAC | 34 | +0.231 | +0.206 | +0.025 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +4.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | 42 | +0.228 | +0.278 | -0.050 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.33 | +7.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 47 | +0.224 | +0.295 | -0.071 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.46 | +2.0 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | DET | 21 | +0.221 | +0.312 | -0.091 | +4.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +13.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | PHI | 41 | +0.220 | +0.168 | +0.052 | +9.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.36 | +1.8 |
| Derek Carr | LV | KC | 32 | +0.207 | +0.212 | -0.005 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.20 | +8.0 |
| Tom Brady | TB | ATL | 53 | +0.191 | +0.265 | -0.074 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.39 | +0.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CLE | 35 | +0.169 | +0.126 | +0.043 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.04 | +0.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | ARI | 38 | +0.088 | +0.099 | -0.010 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.22 | +1.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | NYG | 41 | +0.064 | +0.069 | -0.005 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.29 | -2.5 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | MIA | 23 | +0.051 | +0.038 | +0.013 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.8 | +0.01 | +0.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | BUF | 55 | +0.024 | -0.041 | +0.065 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.02 | +1.4 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | TEN | 41 | +0.016 | +0.016 | -0.000 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.16 | +1.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | WAS | 30 | -0.029 | -0.019 | -0.010 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.0 | +0.07 | +5.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | TB | 31 | -0.037 | -0.046 | +0.009 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.04 | -6.4 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | SEA | 25 | -0.037 | +0.001 | -0.038 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.07 | -2.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 33 | -0.160 | -0.172 | +0.012 | -5.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.03 | +4.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 37 | -0.160 | -0.118 | -0.043 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.07 | -1.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | JAX | 25 | -0.164 | -0.101 | -0.063 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.16 | -1.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 46 | -0.192 | -0.169 | -0.023 | -8.8 | 2 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.34 | -10.7 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | DEN | 46 | -0.219 | -0.240 | +0.021 | -10.1 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 6 | -10.2 | -0.11 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DAL | 47 | -0.223 | -0.306 | +0.083 | -10.5 | 1 / 2 | -14.9 | 5 | -15.8 | -0.37 | -1.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | SF | 40 | -0.239 | -0.271 | +0.031 | -9.6 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 4 | -7.8 | -0.21 | -8.8 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | IND | 43 | -0.320 | -0.302 | -0.017 | -13.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.78 | -8.4 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | LA | 19 | -0.353 | -0.351 | -0.002 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.05 | -5.1 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | NYJ | 35 | -0.498 | -0.465 | -0.033 | -17.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.4 | 2 | -8.1 | -0.41 | -3.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NE | 37 | -0.505 | -0.559 | +0.054 | -18.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.9 | 2 | -10.9 | -0.38 | +0.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.