Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC W | 44–23 | +20.0fav 1.0 | +0.60 → +0.69 | +0.05 → -0.00 | +0.69 | 100%raw 100% | 21% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ SF L | 23–44 | -20.0dog 1.0 | +0.05 → +0.04 | +0.60 → +0.47 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 79% | 3 / 1 |
| CHI W | 33–14 | +28.5dog 9.5 | +0.14 → +0.20 | -0.25 → -0.25 | +0.44 | 99%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ NE L | 14–33 | -28.5fav 9.5 | -0.25 → -0.33 | +0.14 → +0.19 | -0.52 | 0%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 4 / 1 |
| SEA W | 37–23 | +19.5dog 5.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.24 → -0.28 | +0.41 | 99%raw 99% | 31% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 23–37 | -19.5fav 5.5 | -0.24 → -0.28 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 69% | 2 / 2 |
| ATL L | 17–35 | -11.5dog 6.5 | +0.01 → +0.03 | +0.42 → +0.37 | -0.34 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 35–17 | +11.5fav 6.5 | +0.42 → +0.37 | +0.01 → +0.04 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| TB L | 3–21 | -31.0fav 13.0 | -0.15 → -0.15 | +0.14 → +0.20 | -0.34 | 2%raw 2% | 0% – 49% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 21–3 | +31.0dog 13.0 | +0.14 → +0.16 | -0.15 → -0.17 | +0.33 | 98%raw 98% | 51% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| DET L | 6–24 | -11.0dog 7.0 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.03 → -0.01 | -0.22 | 8%raw 1% | 0% – 68% | 5 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 24–6 | +11.0fav 7.0 | +0.03 → -0.04 | -0.29 → -0.32 | +0.28 | 96%raw 99% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| CLE L | 20–23 | +3.5dog 6.5 | +0.08 → +0.07 | -0.07 → -0.08 | +0.15 | 84%raw 88% | 5% – 69% | 2 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 23–20 | -3.5fav 6.5 | -0.07 → -0.08 | +0.08 → +0.06 | -0.15 | 16%raw 12% | 31% – 95% | 1 / 2 |
| HOU L | 20–38 | -11.0dog 7.0 | +0.06 → +0.01 | +0.32 → +0.34 | -0.32 | 3%raw 3% | 0% – 75% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 38–20 | +11.0fav 7.0 | +0.32 → +0.31 | +0.06 → +0.20 | +0.11 | 78%raw 97% | 25% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NO L | 34–42 | -5.5dog 2.5 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.11 → +0.15 | -0.12 | 21%raw 25% | 0% – 72% | 3 / 0 |
| @ ARI W | 42–34 | +5.5fav 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.17 | +0.03 → +0.08 | +0.10 | 75%raw 75% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| GB L | 21–23 | -6.0fav 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.08 | -0.06 → -0.01 | -0.07 | 31%raw 37% | 5% – 77% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 23–21 | +6.0dog 4.0 | -0.06 → -0.08 | -0.10 → -0.14 | +0.06 | 66%raw 63% | 23% – 95% | 1 / 0 |
| IND L | 10–19 | -6.5dog 2.5 | -0.22 → -0.21 | -0.12 → -0.10 | -0.12 | 21%raw 21% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 19–10 | +6.5fav 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.11 | -0.22 → -0.14 | +0.03 | 59%raw 79% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| PIT L | 10–16 | +1.5dog 7.5 | -0.10 → -0.09 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.05 | 36%raw 29% | 1% – 48% | 3 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 16–10 | -1.5fav 7.5 | -0.03 → -0.06 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.03 | 57%raw 71% | 52% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| NYG W | 23–17 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.17 → +0.15 | +0.13 → +0.13 | +0.02 | 57%raw 65% | 15% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ JAX L | 17–23 | -9.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.08 | +0.17 → +0.19 | -0.11 | 23%raw 35% | 4% – 85% | 1 / 0 |
| NYJ W | 16–9 | +5.0fav 2.0 | -0.14 → -0.12 | -0.16 → -0.12 | -0.01 | 48%raw 58% | 31% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DEN L | 9–16 | -5.0dog 2.0 | -0.16 → -0.18 | -0.14 → -0.08 | -0.10 | 24%raw 42% | 1% – 69% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | SF | 35 | +0.907 | +0.852 | +0.055 | +31.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.71 | +10.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | ATL | 45 | +0.535 | +0.601 | -0.066 | +24.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.32 | +14.7 |
| Derek Carr | LV | HOU | 28 | +0.426 | +0.435 | -0.009 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.47 | +7.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | DET | 27 | +0.268 | +0.359 | -0.090 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.4 | +0.11 | +10.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NYG | 43 | +0.263 | +0.264 | -0.001 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | -9.9 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | TB | 23 | +0.244 | +0.229 | +0.014 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.05 | +10.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LAC | 29 | +0.180 | +0.157 | +0.023 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.21 | +10.9 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | NE | 25 | +0.167 | +0.096 | +0.072 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.13 | -1.3 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | NO | 32 | +0.167 | +0.089 | +0.077 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.01 | -1.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 22 | +0.153 | +0.160 | -0.007 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.06 | -0.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | PIT | 35 | +0.135 | +0.159 | -0.024 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -6.2 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | CIN | 16 | +0.087 | +0.069 | +0.018 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.05 | +3.7 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | KC | 42 | +0.048 | +0.057 | -0.009 | +2.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.00 | -0.4 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | JAX | 31 | +0.003 | +0.060 | -0.057 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.05 | -2.7 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | LV | 42 | -0.004 | +0.073 | -0.077 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -10.2 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.37 | -0.0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | GB | 34 | -0.013 | -0.032 | +0.019 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -9.2 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.01 | -2.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | BAL | 32 | -0.023 | +0.015 | -0.038 | -0.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.5 | 5 | -8.8 | -0.01 | +17.5 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | ARI | 47 | -0.041 | -0.029 | -0.012 | -1.9 | 3 / 0 | -20.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -0.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CAR | 50 | -0.053 | -0.048 | -0.005 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.06 | -1.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | WAS | 34 | -0.094 | -0.083 | -0.010 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.34 | -4.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | MIA | 45 | -0.117 | -0.124 | +0.007 | -5.3 | 3 / 0 | -11.6 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.10 | +8.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | DAL | 31 | -0.130 | -0.214 | +0.084 | -4.0 | 2 / 2 | -16.1 | 5 | -13.7 | +0.16 | +9.3 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | CHI | 23 | -0.173 | -0.110 | -0.064 | -4.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.5 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.16 | -4.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 19 | -0.192 | -0.225 | +0.033 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.05 | -10.2 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | TEN | 47 | -0.200 | -0.194 | -0.006 | -9.4 | 2 / 0 | -14.7 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.35 | +9.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | SEA | 54 | -0.236 | -0.192 | -0.044 | -12.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.9 | 3 | -10.5 | -0.16 | -4.9 |
| Brett Rypien | DEN | NYJ | 47 | -0.299 | -0.272 | -0.027 | -14.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.65 | -9.3 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | DEN | 29 | -0.349 | -0.369 | +0.020 | -10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.20 | -4.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.