Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE L | 17–39 | -19.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.08 | +0.40 → +0.40 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 39–17 | +19.0fav 3.0 | +0.40 → +0.40 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| DAL L | 28–31 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.01 → -0.01 | +0.23 → +0.20 | -0.21 | 9%raw 4% | 3% – 94% | 2 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 31–28 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.23 → +0.31 | +0.01 → -0.03 | +0.34 | 98%raw 96% | 6% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| NO L | 10–20 | -9.0dog 1.0 | -0.29 → -0.33 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.36 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 20–10 | +9.0fav 1.0 | +0.02 → +0.07 | -0.29 → -0.26 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| WAS W | 32–21 | +22.0dog 11.0 | +0.08 → +0.11 | -0.12 → -0.21 | +0.32 | 97%raw 94% | 23% – 98% | 2 / 4 |
| @ PHI L | 21–32 | -22.0fav 11.0 | -0.12 → -0.11 | +0.08 → +0.13 | -0.24 | 6%raw 6% | 2% – 77% | 4 / 2 |
| MIN W | 33–30 | +9.5dog 6.5 | +0.07 → +0.12 | -0.06 → -0.15 | +0.27 | 96%raw 85% | 3% – 94% | 2 / 4 |
| @ BUF L | 30–33 | -9.5fav 6.5 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.15 | 16%raw 15% | 6% – 97% | 4 / 2 |
| LAC L | 16–22 | +2.5dog 8.5 | -0.15 → -0.09 | +0.06 → +0.00 | -0.09 | 26%raw 5% | 1% – 80% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 22–16 | -2.5fav 8.5 | +0.06 → +0.06 | -0.15 → -0.19 | +0.24 | 94%raw 95% | 20% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI W | 27–17 | +13.5dog 3.5 | +0.05 → +0.05 | -0.20 → -0.18 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 17–27 | -13.5fav 3.5 | -0.20 → -0.20 | +0.05 → +0.09 | -0.29 | 4%raw 3% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| IND W | 25–20 | +9.5dog 4.5 | +0.19 → +0.15 | -0.05 → -0.05 | +0.20 | 91%raw 97% | 34% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LV L | 20–25 | -9.5fav 4.5 | -0.05 → -0.04 | +0.19 → +0.28 | -0.32 | 3%raw 3% | 3% – 66% | 0 / 1 |
| JAX L | 17–27 | +0.0dog 10.0 | +0.09 → +0.08 | +0.27 → +0.13 | -0.05 | 35%raw 7% | 0% – 58% | 0 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 27–17 | +0.0fav 10.0 | +0.27 → +0.26 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.17 | 87%raw 93% | 42% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| SEA L | 16–21 | -2.5dog 2.5 | +0.03 → +0.05 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.11 | 23%raw 13% | 1% – 55% | 1 / 2 |
| @ TB W | 21–16 | +2.5fav 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.14 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.12 | 79%raw 87% | 45% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| ATL L | 15–25 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.11 → -0.10 | +0.08 → +0.14 | -0.24 | 6%raw 7% | 0% – 44% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 25–15 | +12.5dog 2.5 | +0.08 → +0.02 | -0.11 → -0.09 | +0.12 | 79%raw 93% | 56% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| DEN L | 10–17 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.13 → -0.12 | -0.08 → -0.06 | -0.06 | 34%raw 37% | 1% – 83% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 17–10 | +4.5fav 2.5 | -0.08 → -0.07 | -0.13 → -0.08 | +0.01 | 53%raw 63% | 17% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| DET W | 31–30 | +4.0dog 3.0 | +0.18 → +0.12 | +0.07 → +0.13 | -0.01 | 48%raw 81% | 3% – 95% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 30–31 | -4.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.01 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.16 | 14%raw 19% | 5% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
| HOU L | 16–24 | -2.5dog 5.5 | +0.01 → -0.04 | +0.14 → +0.16 | -0.20 | 10%raw 14% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 24–16 | +2.5fav 5.5 | +0.14 → +0.12 | +0.01 → +0.15 | -0.02 | 43%raw 86% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CLE | 32 | +0.612 | +0.561 | +0.051 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +8.6 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | HOU | 20 | +0.588 | +0.594 | -0.006 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.30 | +3.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 28 | +0.587 | +0.630 | -0.043 | +16.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.58 | +4.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | JAX | 35 | +0.526 | +0.573 | -0.047 | +18.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +6.9 |
| Tom Brady | TB | SEA | 29 | +0.496 | +0.528 | -0.032 | +14.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | +10.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | DAL | 22 | +0.411 | +0.313 | +0.098 | +9.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 2 | -7.1 | +0.57 | +11.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | LAC | 29 | +0.374 | +0.348 | +0.026 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.21 | -2.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 27 | +0.239 | +0.242 | -0.003 | +6.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.27 | -0.8 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | LV | 31 | +0.170 | +0.240 | -0.071 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.9 | +0.14 | +2.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | DEN | 37 | +0.161 | +0.130 | +0.032 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.14 | -15.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | BUF | 54 | +0.159 | +0.090 | +0.069 | +8.6 | 2 / 0 | -11.9 | 4 | -4.8 | +0.42 | -2.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | KC | 45 | +0.150 | +0.156 | -0.006 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.9 | +0.01 | +6.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | PHI | 30 | +0.144 | +0.094 | +0.050 | +4.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 3 | -7.0 | +0.14 | +6.9 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | NYG | 41 | +0.124 | +0.127 | -0.003 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.05 | -5.4 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | TB | 37 | +0.119 | +0.106 | +0.012 | +4.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.02 | +5.5 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | LA | 39 | +0.082 | +0.072 | +0.010 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.25 | +3.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIN | 45 | +0.056 | +0.061 | -0.005 | +2.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -5.1 | -0.31 | +6.3 |
| Derek Carr | LV | IND | 41 | +0.039 | +0.048 | -0.010 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.07 | -8.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | NO | 36 | +0.000 | -0.073 | +0.073 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -8.3 | -0.09 | +3.5 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | PIT | 29 | -0.078 | -0.049 | -0.030 | -2.3 | 2 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.01 | -2.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | GB | 48 | -0.123 | -0.140 | +0.017 | -5.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.20 | -4.5 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | TEN | 48 | -0.134 | -0.131 | -0.003 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.9 | 6 | -9.0 | -0.17 | -10.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | SF | 37 | -0.147 | -0.181 | +0.034 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.20 | -2.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | MIA | 38 | -0.149 | -0.158 | +0.009 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.8 | -0.06 | +0.8 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | ATL | 17 | -0.167 | -0.085 | -0.083 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.07 | -6.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | CAR | 34 | -0.233 | -0.227 | -0.006 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 5 | -11.8 | -0.10 | +6.7 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DET | 23 | -0.264 | -0.163 | -0.101 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.45 | +3.1 |
| John Wolford | LA | ARI | 39 | -0.324 | -0.302 | -0.022 | -12.6 | 1 / 1 | -12.8 | 3 | -8.1 | -0.31 | -3.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.