Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI L | 10–41 | -26.5dog 4.5 | -0.34 → -0.42 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.59 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 41–10 | +26.5fav 4.5 | +0.19 → +0.12 | -0.34 → -0.30 | +0.42 | 99%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LA L | 10–31 | -14.5dog 6.5 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.29 → +0.26 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 59% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 31–10 | +14.5fav 6.5 | +0.29 → +0.30 | -0.10 → -0.08 | +0.38 | 99%raw 99% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| CLE W | 24–10 | +15.0dog 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.20 | -0.18 → -0.13 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ WAS L | 10–24 | -15.0fav 1.0 | -0.18 → -0.19 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.36 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 71% | 3 / 0 |
| NO W | 20–10 | +15.5dog 5.5 | -0.06 → -0.03 | -0.27 → -0.36 | +0.33 | 98%raw 94% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 10–20 | -15.5fav 5.5 | -0.27 → -0.22 | -0.06 → -0.02 | -0.20 | 10%raw 6% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| IND L | 10–38 | -22.5dog 5.5 | -0.17 → -0.22 | +0.21 → +0.23 | -0.45 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 38–10 | +22.5fav 5.5 | +0.21 → +0.23 | -0.17 → -0.09 | +0.32 | 97%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| MIN L | 17–41 | -21.0dog 3.0 | -0.19 → -0.21 | +0.11 → +0.08 | -0.29 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 62% | 4 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 41–17 | +21.0fav 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.19 → -0.20 | +0.30 | 96%raw 98% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| JAX W | 31–3 | +24.5fav 3.5 | -0.08 → -0.10 | -0.51 → -0.39 | +0.28 | 96%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 3–31 | -24.5dog 3.5 | -0.51 → -0.54 | -0.08 → -0.08 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 1 / 2 |
| DEN L | 24–27 | +10.5dog 13.5 | -0.16 → -0.18 | +0.11 → -0.03 | -0.15 | 16%raw 2% | 2% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 27–24 | -10.5fav 13.5 | +0.11 → +0.14 | -0.16 → -0.12 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 28% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 6–23 | -18.0fav 1.0 | -0.32 → -0.36 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.32 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 23–6 | +18.0dog 1.0 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.32 → -0.26 | +0.22 | 93%raw 98% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| SF W | 37–34 | -7.0fav 10.0 | +0.31 → +0.27 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.20 | 91%raw 97% | 16% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LV L | 34–37 | +7.0dog 10.0 | +0.06 → +0.13 | +0.31 → +0.26 | -0.13 | 19%raw 3% | 0% – 84% | 2 / 1 |
| DAL W | 27–13 | +0.0fav 14.0 | +0.00 → +0.01 | -0.16 → -0.14 | +0.15 | 85%raw 91% | 39% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| @ TEN L | 13–27 | +0.0dog 14.0 | -0.16 → -0.10 | +0.00 → -0.04 | -0.06 | 33%raw 9% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 3 |
| PIT W | 16–13 | +4.0dog 1.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | +0.00 → -0.01 | +0.15 | 85%raw 89% | 14% – 95% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL L | 13–16 | -4.0fav 1.0 | +0.00 → -0.03 | +0.15 → +0.17 | -0.20 | 10%raw 11% | 5% – 86% | 1 / 0 |
| MIA L | 21–23 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.04 → +0.02 | -0.13 → -0.12 | +0.14 | 83%raw 78% | 2% – 74% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 23–21 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.13 → -0.12 | -0.04 → -0.04 | -0.08 | 29%raw 22% | 26% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| CAR L | 24–30 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.01 → +0.01 | +0.12 → +0.11 | -0.11 | 24%raw 14% | 1% – 87% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 30–24 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.12 → +0.14 | -0.01 → +0.05 | +0.09 | 74%raw 86% | 13% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| ARI L | 19–20 | +6.0dog 7.0 | +0.02 → -0.04 | -0.08 → -0.06 | +0.02 | 55%raw 79% | 22% – 70% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 20–19 | -6.0fav 7.0 | -0.08 → -0.08 | +0.02 → +0.06 | -0.14 | 18%raw 21% | 30% – 78% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | NYG | IND | 24 | +0.494 | +0.492 | +0.002 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +12.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LA | 28 | +0.381 | +0.365 | +0.016 | +10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +6.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CAR | 50 | +0.354 | +0.349 | +0.005 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.53 | +12.2 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | WAS | 23 | +0.343 | +0.344 | -0.002 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.1 | +0.17 | -7.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 42 | +0.286 | +0.253 | +0.032 | +12.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +5.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | TEN | 42 | +0.255 | +0.250 | +0.005 | +10.7 | 2 / 0 | -6.4 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.24 | +3.7 |
| Jarrett Stidham | LV | SF | 34 | +0.226 | +0.183 | +0.042 | +7.7 | 2 / 0 | -13.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +8.9 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | TB | 37 | +0.223 | +0.208 | +0.015 | +8.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.8 | 2 | -6.7 | +0.16 | +12.2 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | PIT | 21 | +0.199 | +0.223 | -0.024 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.07 | +4.4 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | LV | 35 | +0.151 | +0.224 | -0.073 | +5.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.48 | -3.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 30 | +0.137 | +0.192 | -0.055 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.17 | -1.1 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | BAL | 29 | +0.109 | +0.143 | -0.035 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.30 | -1.5 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIA | NE | 20 | +0.101 | +0.034 | +0.067 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.00 | +1.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | MIN | 24 | +0.064 | +0.071 | -0.007 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -4.6 | -0.12 | +3.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 22 | +0.045 | +0.069 | -0.025 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.03 | +11.6 |
| Sam Ehlinger | IND | NYG | 15 | +0.030 | +0.043 | -0.013 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.01 | -5.7 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | NE | 22 | -0.006 | -0.073 | +0.067 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.18 | -10.0 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | ARI | 27 | -0.021 | -0.007 | -0.014 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.12 | +3.5 |
| David Blough | ARI | ATL | 42 | -0.038 | +0.042 | -0.080 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.00 | -2.3 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 36 | -0.081 | -0.089 | +0.007 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -7.9 | -0.04 | -2.4 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NYJ | 33 | -0.098 | -0.075 | -0.023 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.09 | +4.1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | TEN | DAL | 41 | -0.120 | -0.205 | +0.085 | -4.9 | 1 / 1 | -8.3 | 2 | -5.7 | -0.12 | -10.1 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | PHI | 28 | -0.126 | -0.170 | +0.044 | -3.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 6 | -10.1 | -0.16 | +14.5 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | CLE | 31 | -0.230 | -0.261 | +0.031 | -7.1 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.23 | -9.5 |
| Gardner Minshew | PHI | NO | 38 | -0.232 | -0.299 | +0.066 | -8.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 6 | -7.4 | -0.38 | -10.4 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | KC | 42 | -0.314 | -0.298 | -0.016 | -13.2 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 4 | -9.0 | -0.61 | -0.5 |
| Mike White | NYJ | SEA | 50 | -0.427 | -0.378 | -0.049 | -21.4 | 2 / 1 | -10.6 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.22 | -15.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | GB | 33 | -0.506 | -0.522 | +0.015 | -16.7 | 3 / 1 | -22.9 | 2 | -6.9 | -0.37 | -7.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | LA | LAC | 22 | -0.518 | -0.526 | +0.008 | -11.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 3 | -9.3 | -0.18 | -3.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | JAX | 41 | -0.622 | -0.548 | -0.074 | -25.5 | 0 / 1 | -7.7 | 1 | -7.7 | -0.25 | -8.1 |
| Nick Foles | IND | NYG | 14 | -0.689 | -0.676 | -0.013 | -9.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.06 | -8.6 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DET | 28 | -1.079 | -0.964 | -0.115 | -30.2 | 1 / 1 | -5.8 | 7 | -15.4 | -0.32 | -28.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.