Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
NYG L	7–38	-23.0dog 8.0	-0.23 → -0.20	+0.34 → +0.27	-0.47	1%raw 0%	0% – 47%	1 / 0
@ PHI W	38–7	+23.0fav 8.0	+0.34 → +0.30	-0.23 → -0.22	+0.52	100%raw 100%	53% – 100%	0 / 1
CIN W	27–10	+23.0dog 6.0	+0.22 → +0.28	+0.01 → -0.09	+0.37	98%raw 95%	43% – 100%	0 / 1
@ BUF L	10–27	-23.0fav 6.0	+0.01 → +0.03	+0.22 → +0.17	-0.14	17%raw 5%	0% – 57%	1 / 0
DAL L	12–19	-3.5dog 3.5	-0.09 → -0.03	+0.01 → -0.05	+0.02	56%raw 21%	1% – 63%	2 / 0
@ SF W	19–12	+3.5fav 3.5	+0.01 → +0.08	-0.09 → -0.13	+0.21	91%raw 79%	37% – 99%	0 / 2
JAX L	20–27	+3.0dog 10.0	+0.07 → +0.06	+0.21 → +0.07	-0.00	49%raw 13%	0% – 44%	2 / 0
@ KC W	27–20	-3.0fav 10.0	+0.21 → +0.20	+0.07 → +0.08	+0.12	79%raw 87%	56% – 100%	0 / 2

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Joe Burrow	CIN	BUF	36	+0.408	+0.333	+0.075	+14.7	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-1.7	+0.32	+5.6
Patrick Mahomes	KC	JAX	30	+0.271	+0.323	-0.053	+8.1	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.31	+9.8
Jalen Hurts	PHI	NYG	25	+0.235	+0.236	-0.001	+5.9	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-1.4	+0.21	-1.4
Brock Purdy	SF	DAL	31	+0.207	+0.116	+0.091	+6.4	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.3	+0.16	+4.7
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	KC	40	-0.000	+0.008	-0.008	-0.0	1 / 0	-2.4	2	-2.9	-0.15	-2.5
Josh Allen	BUF	CIN	43	-0.025	-0.041	+0.016	-1.1	1 / 0	-2.5	1	-1.3	-0.00	+1.1
Dak Prescott	DAL	SF	38	-0.131	-0.166	+0.035	-5.0	2 / 0	-9.1	1	-0.8	-0.27	-5.1
Daniel Jones	NYG	PHI	32	-0.415	-0.453	+0.038	-13.3	1 / 0	-5.6	5	-9.2	-0.13	-10.5

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.