Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI W | 48–22 | +18.5fav 7.5 | +0.40 → +0.36 | -0.08 → -0.06 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 22–48 | -18.5dog 7.5 | -0.08 → -0.04 | +0.40 → +0.33 | -0.37 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| TB L | 7–35 | -24.5dog 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.12 | +0.17 → +0.11 | -0.23 | 7%raw 1% | 0% – 46% | 3 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 35–7 | +24.5fav 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.19 | -0.18 → -0.20 | +0.39 | 99%raw 99% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| NE W | 27–13 | +12.0fav 2.0 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.38 → -0.36 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 19% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 13–27 | -12.0dog 2.0 | -0.38 → -0.34 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.37 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
| JAX W | 36–22 | +17.0dog 3.0 | +0.19 → +0.20 | -0.15 → -0.13 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 20% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ TEN L | 22–36 | -17.0fav 3.0 | -0.15 → -0.17 | +0.19 → +0.19 | -0.37 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 80% | 4 / 0 |
| CAR W | 30–24 | +9.5dog 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.14 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 24–30 | -9.5fav 3.5 | -0.08 → -0.07 | +0.17 → +0.23 | -0.30 | 3%raw 3% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 0 |
| CLE L | 10–23 | -8.5dog 4.5 | -0.14 → -0.12 | +0.04 → -0.02 | -0.10 | 25%raw 8% | 0% – 60% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 23–10 | +8.5fav 4.5 | +0.04 → +0.03 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.19 | 89%raw 92% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| KC W | 34–28 | -2.5fav 8.5 | +0.10 → +0.13 | -0.10 → -0.05 | +0.17 | 87%raw 94% | 40% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 28–34 | +2.5dog 8.5 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.10 → -0.05 | -0.07 | 33%raw 6% | 0% – 60% | 2 / 3 |
| MIN L | 23–34 | -8.5dog 2.5 | +0.08 → +0.01 | +0.23 → +0.22 | -0.21 | 9%raw 11% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 34–23 | +8.5fav 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.22 | +0.08 → +0.08 | +0.14 | 83%raw 89% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| MIA L | 17–23 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.03 → -0.00 | -0.09 | 27%raw 18% | 1% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 23–17 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.03 → +0.04 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.13 | 81%raw 82% | 54% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| LV L | 16–17 | -7.5fav 6.5 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.12 → -0.09 | +0.12 | 80%raw 87% | 10% – 96% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 17–16 | +7.5dog 6.5 | -0.12 → -0.17 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.19 | 10%raw 13% | 4% – 90% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 12–20 | +2.0dog 10.0 | -0.17 → -0.12 | -0.10 → -0.20 | +0.08 | 70%raw 29% | 0% – 60% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 20–12 | -2.0fav 10.0 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.17 → -0.11 | -0.01 | 47%raw 71% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| HOU L | 23–27 | +13.0dog 17.0 | -0.19 → -0.12 | -0.02 → -0.06 | -0.06 | 34%raw 10% | 2% – 88% | 2 / 2 |
| @ DAL W | 27–23 | -13.0fav 17.0 | -0.02 → -0.05 | -0.19 → -0.05 | +0.00 | 51%raw 90% | 12% – 98% | 2 / 2 |
| BAL W | 16–14 | +3.5dog 1.5 | +0.05 → +0.02 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.01 | 48%raw 61% | 36% – 95% | 0 / 3 |
| @ PIT L | 14–16 | -3.5fav 1.5 | +0.02 → +0.01 | +0.05 → +0.04 | -0.04 | 40%raw 39% | 5% – 64% | 3 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 43 | +0.432 | +0.422 | +0.009 | +18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +4.5 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | TB | 21 | +0.425 | +0.407 | +0.018 | +8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +8.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | DAL | 20 | +0.414 | +0.318 | +0.096 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +17.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | DET | 45 | +0.390 | +0.481 | -0.091 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.30 | +14.0 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 39 | +0.367 | +0.366 | +0.000 | +14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +2.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | BAL | 31 | +0.177 | +0.212 | -0.035 | +5.5 | 3 / 0 | -10.8 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.05 | +11.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 44 | +0.162 | +0.131 | +0.031 | +7.1 | 3 / 0 | -11.3 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.14 | -1.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 35 | +0.155 | +0.157 | -0.002 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.5 | +0.15 | +3.9 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | PIT | 13 | +0.107 | +0.134 | -0.027 | +1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.02 | +1.3 |
| Mike White | NYJ | BUF | 47 | +0.103 | +0.040 | +0.064 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.01 | -1.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | MIA | 55 | +0.041 | +0.031 | +0.011 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.23 | +7.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 34 | -0.007 | -0.044 | +0.037 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.02 | -13.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | CAR | 39 | -0.015 | -0.012 | -0.004 | -0.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.22 | -1.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | LA | LV | 38 | -0.026 | +0.052 | -0.078 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | +0.44 | -6.2 |
| Derek Carr | LV | LA | 20 | -0.037 | -0.042 | +0.004 | -0.7 | 2 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.06 | -9.3 |
| Mac Jones | NE | ARI | 36 | -0.078 | -0.062 | -0.016 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.05 | -2.6 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | CIN | 43 | -0.104 | -0.119 | +0.015 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.08 | +1.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | HOU | 40 | -0.114 | -0.092 | -0.022 | -4.6 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.12 | -8.4 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | PHI | 31 | -0.116 | -0.164 | +0.047 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.8 | -0.12 | -1.0 |
| Tom Brady | TB | SF | 55 | -0.140 | -0.172 | +0.032 | -7.7 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -1.4 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | SEA | 26 | -0.143 | -0.103 | -0.040 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.04 | +3.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | JAX | 43 | -0.146 | -0.084 | -0.062 | -6.3 | 1 / 1 | -10.7 | 4 | -8.7 | -0.41 | +0.9 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | KC | 42 | -0.178 | -0.166 | -0.012 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -7.9 | 6 | -9.8 | -0.23 | -6.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 30 | -0.181 | -0.159 | -0.022 | -5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.10 | -8.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | LAC | 30 | -0.250 | -0.264 | +0.014 | -7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.29 | -24.5 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | NE | 46 | -0.386 | -0.444 | +0.058 | -17.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 6 | -11.1 | -0.58 | -1.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.