Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB W | 19–3 | +13.5fav 2.5 | +0.01 → +0.09 | -0.34 → -0.39 | +0.48 | 100%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 3–19 | -13.5dog 2.5 | -0.34 → -0.33 | +0.01 → +0.00 | -0.34 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 1 |
| BUF W | 31–10 | +20.0fav 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.19 | -0.27 → -0.26 | +0.44 | 99%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 4 / 3 |
| @ LA L | 10–31 | -20.0dog 1.0 | -0.27 → -0.23 | +0.18 → +0.09 | -0.32 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 3 / 4 |
| KC W | 44–21 | +17.0fav 6.0 | +0.42 → +0.44 | +0.01 → +0.04 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 21–44 | -17.0dog 6.0 | +0.01 → -0.01 | +0.42 → +0.28 | -0.29 | 4%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 0 / 1 |
| GB L | 7–23 | -13.5dog 2.5 | -0.19 → -0.22 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.35 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 23–7 | +13.5fav 2.5 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.19 → -0.23 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NE L | 7–20 | -10.0dog 3.0 | -0.25 → -0.24 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.28 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 56% | 3 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 20–7 | +10.0fav 3.0 | +0.04 → +0.10 | -0.25 → -0.24 | +0.34 | 98%raw 98% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| SF L | 10–19 | -15.5fav 6.5 | -0.16 → -0.24 | -0.05 → -0.00 | -0.24 | 6%raw 17% | 0% – 85% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CHI W | 19–10 | +15.5dog 6.5 | -0.05 → +0.01 | -0.16 → -0.23 | +0.24 | 94%raw 83% | 15% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| BAL W | 24–9 | +8.5fav 6.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.20 → -0.14 | +0.19 | 89%raw 97% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NYJ L | 9–24 | -8.5dog 6.5 | -0.20 → -0.22 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.27 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 58% | 2 / 1 |
| PIT W | 23–20 | +10.5dog 7.5 | -0.13 → -0.12 | -0.23 → -0.30 | +0.18 | 88%raw 79% | 3% – 97% | 0 / 5 |
| @ CIN L | 20–23 | -10.5fav 7.5 | -0.23 → -0.27 | -0.13 → -0.13 | -0.14 | 17%raw 21% | 3% – 97% | 5 / 0 |
| LV L | 19–24 | -1.5dog 3.5 | -0.13 → -0.13 | +0.08 → +0.06 | -0.19 | 10%raw 5% | 1% – 56% | 3 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 24–19 | +1.5fav 3.5 | +0.08 → +0.04 | -0.13 → -0.13 | +0.17 | 87%raw 95% | 44% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| PHI W | 38–35 | -3.0fav 6.0 | +0.28 → +0.22 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.11 | 78%raw 89% | 23% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 35–38 | +3.0dog 6.0 | +0.12 → +0.16 | +0.28 → +0.21 | -0.05 | 38%raw 11% | 3% – 77% | 1 / 0 |
| NO W | 27–26 | -5.0fav 6.0 | +0.12 → +0.06 | -0.02 → -0.00 | +0.06 | 67%raw 87% | 2% – 73% | 1 / 2 |
| @ ATL L | 26–27 | +5.0dog 6.0 | -0.02 → +0.03 | +0.12 → +0.16 | -0.13 | 18%raw 13% | 27% – 98% | 2 / 1 |
| DEN L | 16–17 | -7.0fav 6.0 | +0.08 → +0.06 | +0.02 → +0.01 | +0.05 | 63%raw 70% | 8% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 17–16 | +7.0dog 6.0 | +0.02 → +0.04 | +0.08 → +0.14 | -0.10 | 25%raw 30% | 43% – 92% | 1 / 2 |
| IND T | 20–20 | -7.0fav 7.0 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.18 → -0.04 | +0.01 | 53%raw 91% | 1% – 88% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU T | 20–20 | +7.0dog 7.0 | -0.18 → -0.17 | -0.01 → +0.07 | -0.24 | 6%raw 9% | 12% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| CLE W | 26–24 | +4.5dog 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.02 → +0.07 | -0.05 | 38%raw 50% | 34% – 94% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 24–26 | -4.5fav 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.01 | +0.02 → +0.00 | +0.01 | 52%raw 50% | 6% – 66% | 1 / 0 |
| JAX L | 22–28 | -3.0dog 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.09 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.01 | 47%raw 58% | 2% – 87% | 1 / 3 |
| @ WAS W | 28–22 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.05 | 37%raw 42% | 13% – 98% | 3 / 1 |
| NYG W | 21–20 | +6.5dog 5.5 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.03 → +0.05 | -0.03 | 42%raw 46% | 6% – 59% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 20–21 | -6.5fav 5.5 | +0.03 → -0.02 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.05 | 36%raw 54% | 41% – 94% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | ARI | 39 | +0.857 | +0.851 | +0.006 | +33.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.44 | +11.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LA | 33 | +0.434 | +0.414 | +0.020 | +14.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.35 | +11.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 34 | +0.373 | +0.440 | -0.067 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | +6.4 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | SEA | 44 | +0.312 | +0.345 | -0.032 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.43 | +7.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | DEN | 30 | +0.311 | +0.276 | +0.035 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.09 | +12.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | GB | 33 | +0.308 | +0.281 | +0.027 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.18 | +5.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 36 | +0.234 | +0.163 | +0.072 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.16 | +8.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | NYG | 33 | +0.231 | +0.231 | +0.000 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.27 | -0.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | NO | 32 | +0.229 | +0.152 | +0.077 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | -6.9 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | JAX | 44 | +0.140 | +0.197 | -0.056 | +6.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.4 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.27 | -0.2 |
| Tom Brady | TB | DAL | 29 | +0.126 | +0.036 | +0.090 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.11 | +3.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NYJ | 32 | +0.116 | +0.132 | -0.016 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.01 | -3.6 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | HOU | 52 | +0.040 | +0.058 | -0.018 | +2.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.91 | -4.8 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | ATL | 37 | +0.030 | +0.109 | -0.079 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.4 | +0.24 | +7.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DET | 33 | +0.018 | +0.108 | -0.091 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.14 | -10.0 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | KC | 38 | -0.000 | +0.009 | -0.009 | -0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.16 | +1.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | PHI | 38 | -0.008 | -0.056 | +0.047 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -2.5 | -0.17 | -12.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | CLE | 31 | -0.014 | -0.052 | +0.038 | -0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.09 | -9.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | WAS | 45 | -0.027 | -0.018 | -0.008 | -1.2 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.14 | +2.7 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | SF | 19 | -0.050 | -0.089 | +0.039 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.05 | -16.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | LAC | 43 | -0.114 | -0.128 | +0.014 | -4.9 | 3 / 0 | -13.1 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.15 | -2.4 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | CIN | 38 | -0.131 | -0.145 | +0.015 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.45 | -7.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 32 | -0.135 | -0.140 | +0.005 | -4.3 | 1 / 1 | -12.7 | 2 | -8.2 | -0.19 | +2.9 |
| Joe Flacco | NYJ | BAL | 62 | -0.156 | -0.115 | -0.041 | -9.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.8 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.52 | -4.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | IND | 40 | -0.176 | -0.162 | -0.014 | -7.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 3 | -8.3 | -0.28 | -6.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | CAR | 33 | -0.231 | -0.222 | -0.009 | -7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.07 | -2.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | TEN | 27 | -0.259 | -0.253 | -0.006 | -7.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.4 | 5 | -10.9 | -0.02 | +13.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | BUF | 48 | -0.291 | -0.349 | +0.058 | -14.0 | 3 / 0 | -15.6 | 7 | -11.3 | -0.29 | -0.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 61 | -0.297 | -0.264 | -0.033 | -18.1 | 4 / 1 | -22.2 | 7 | -15.5 | -0.29 | -0.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | MIN | 38 | -0.323 | -0.306 | -0.017 | -12.3 | 1 / 1 | -7.8 | 4 | -12.7 | -0.13 | -2.8 |
| Trey Lance | SF | CHI | 30 | -0.369 | -0.304 | -0.065 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.10 | -18.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | TB | 31 | -0.404 | -0.403 | -0.002 | -12.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.32 | -23.0 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | TB | 15 | -0.506 | -0.504 | -0.002 | -7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.02 | -3.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.