Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W | 40–3 | +35.5fav 1.5 | +0.29 → +0.28 | -0.37 → -0.38 | +0.66 | 100%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIN L | 3–40 | -35.5dog 1.5 | -0.37 → -0.31 | +0.29 → +0.26 | -0.57 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 0 |
| SF W | 38–10 | +18.0fav 10.0 | +0.37 → +0.38 | -0.17 → -0.13 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 10–38 | -18.0dog 10.0 | -0.17 → -0.10 | +0.37 → +0.32 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| TEN W | 27–17 | +13.0dog 3.0 | +0.24 → +0.23 | -0.04 → -0.08 | +0.31 | 97%raw 98% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ GB L | 17–27 | -13.0fav 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.24 → +0.27 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 61% | 0 / 1 |
| CAR L | 3–13 | +3.0dog 13.0 | -0.41 → -0.44 | -0.12 → -0.13 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 13–3 | -3.0fav 13.0 | -0.12 → -0.11 | -0.41 → -0.37 | +0.26 | 95%raw 98% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| NYJ L | 3–10 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.42 → -0.38 | -0.13 → -0.12 | -0.25 | 6%raw 2% | 3% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 10–3 | +3.5fav 3.5 | -0.13 → -0.14 | -0.42 → -0.36 | +0.22 | 92%raw 98% | 43% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| KC W | 30–27 | -2.5fav 5.5 | +0.25 → +0.25 | +0.09 → +0.06 | +0.20 | 90%raw 91% | 15% – 96% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 27–30 | +2.5dog 5.5 | +0.09 → +0.08 | +0.25 → +0.11 | -0.03 | 41%raw 9% | 4% – 85% | 2 / 1 |
| WAS W | 23–10 | +10.0fav 3.0 | -0.06 → -0.09 | -0.40 → -0.28 | +0.19 | 89%raw 99% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 10–23 | -10.0dog 3.0 | -0.40 → -0.39 | -0.06 → -0.01 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| CIN W | 37–30 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.16 → +0.13 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.16 | 86%raw 93% | 28% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PIT L | 30–37 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.02 | +0.16 → +0.10 | -0.12 | 21%raw 7% | 0% – 72% | 0 / 2 |
| PHI W | 17–16 | -5.5fav 6.5 | -0.13 → -0.13 | -0.15 → -0.07 | -0.06 | 35%raw 54% | 9% – 91% | 2 / 1 |
| @ IND L | 16–17 | +5.5dog 6.5 | -0.15 → -0.12 | -0.13 → -0.22 | +0.10 | 76%raw 46% | 9% – 91% | 1 / 2 |
| CLE L | 23–31 | -0.5dog 7.5 | +0.08 → +0.13 | +0.13 → +0.04 | +0.09 | 74%raw 33% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 31–23 | +0.5fav 7.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.06 | 66%raw 67% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| LV W | 22–16 | +8.5dog 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.13 | -0.01 → +0.04 | +0.08 | 72%raw 82% | 13% – 79% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DEN L | 16–22 | -8.5fav 2.5 | -0.01 → -0.06 | +0.10 → +0.11 | -0.16 | 14%raw 18% | 21% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
| LA L | 20–27 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.00 → +0.05 | +0.09 → +0.14 | -0.08 | 29%raw 23% | 0% – 60% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 27–20 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.09 → +0.10 | -0.00 → +0.02 | +0.07 | 69%raw 77% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| DET W | 31–18 | +16.0dog 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.07 | -0.01 → +0.01 | +0.06 | 67%raw 84% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NYG L | 18–31 | -16.0fav 3.0 | -0.01 → -0.08 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.17 | 12%raw 16% | 0% – 69% | 3 / 0 |
| CHI L | 24–27 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.03 → -0.03 | -0.01 → +0.01 | -0.04 | 38%raw 63% | 2% – 78% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 27–24 | +0.0fav 3.0 | -0.01 → -0.08 | +0.03 → +0.08 | -0.16 | 14%raw 37% | 22% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | DAL | MIN | 25 | +0.741 | +0.736 | +0.005 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | +15.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | GB | 30 | +0.596 | +0.562 | +0.034 | +17.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.39 | +23.6 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | ARI | 29 | +0.560 | +0.560 | -0.000 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +0.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 35 | +0.544 | +0.514 | +0.030 | +19.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.56 | +0.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | BUF | 42 | +0.501 | +0.423 | +0.078 | +21.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.34 | +5.8 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | LA | 28 | +0.395 | +0.381 | +0.014 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | +0.57 | +14.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NO | 19 | +0.312 | +0.238 | +0.074 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.24 | -1.3 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 41 | +0.290 | +0.310 | -0.020 | +11.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.1 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.26 | -1.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | CLE | 29 | +0.283 | +0.240 | +0.044 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.26 | +2.9 |
| Derek Carr | LV | DEN | 38 | +0.220 | +0.187 | +0.033 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.38 | -3.1 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 35 | +0.188 | +0.193 | -0.004 | +6.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 5 | -6.1 | +0.10 | +10.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NYG | 26 | +0.104 | +0.108 | -0.004 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | -0.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | TEN | 41 | +0.067 | +0.066 | +0.001 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -0.5 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | CHI | 18 | +0.024 | +0.082 | -0.058 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -0.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | HOU | 27 | +0.023 | +0.042 | -0.019 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | +1.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | ATL | 25 | -0.018 | +0.059 | -0.077 | -0.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -5.4 | -0.14 | +6.0 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | LV | 34 | -0.033 | +0.043 | -0.076 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.30 | +16.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | CIN | 44 | -0.034 | -0.050 | +0.016 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.11 | +2.7 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DET | 47 | -0.044 | +0.054 | -0.097 | -2.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.13 | +1.2 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | PHI | 36 | -0.047 | -0.093 | +0.046 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.6 | -0.31 | +0.6 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 33 | -0.061 | -0.039 | -0.022 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -9.5 | -0.11 | +9.8 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | SF | 37 | -0.086 | -0.119 | +0.034 | -3.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 3 | -3.7 | -0.04 | +3.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CAR | 36 | -0.160 | -0.152 | -0.008 | -5.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.12 | +0.2 |
| Trace McSorley | ARI | SF | 10 | -0.198 | -0.232 | +0.034 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +3.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | IND | 28 | -0.209 | -0.194 | -0.015 | -5.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 3 | -11.0 | -0.39 | +9.2 |
| Bryce Perkins | LA | NO | 12 | -0.302 | -0.376 | +0.074 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.12 | -17.3 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 26 | -0.418 | -0.477 | +0.059 | -10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.49 | -22.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | BAL | 37 | -0.432 | -0.386 | -0.046 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -6.6 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.41 | -3.0 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | WAS | 38 | -0.508 | -0.490 | -0.017 | -19.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.9 | 5 | -9.9 | -0.47 | -8.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | DAL | 30 | -0.529 | -0.608 | +0.079 | -15.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 7 | -15.8 | -0.27 | -10.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.