Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
WAS W	45–31	+22.5dog 8.5	+0.29 → +0.32	+0.08 → -0.04	+0.36	98%raw 95%	26% – 100%	0 / 5
@ DET L	31–45	-22.5fav 8.5	+0.08 → +0.03	+0.29 → +0.24	-0.21	9%raw 5%	0% – 74%	5 / 0
BAL L	25–27	-3.5fav 1.5	+0.18 → +0.19	+0.08 → -0.06	+0.25	94%raw 80%	3% – 63%	3 / 0
@ BUF W	27–25	+3.5dog 1.5	+0.08 → +0.13	+0.18 → +0.04	+0.09	74%raw 20%	37% – 97%	0 / 3
LA L	22–28	+1.0dog 7.0	-0.07 → -0.01	+0.08 → +0.00	-0.02	45%raw 11%	1% – 59%	2 / 0
@ PHI W	28–22	-1.0fav 7.0	+0.08 → +0.06	-0.07 → -0.09	+0.15	85%raw 89%	41% – 99%	0 / 2
HOU L	14–23	+0.5dog 9.5	+0.10 → +0.11	+0.04 → +0.00	+0.11	77%raw 70%	0% – 54%	0 / 0
@ KC W	23–14	-0.5fav 9.5	+0.04 → +0.09	+0.10 → +0.14	-0.05	37%raw 30%	46% – 100%	0 / 0

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Jayden Daniels	WAS	DET	31	+0.633	+0.618	+0.015	+19.6	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.56	+6.2
Lamar Jackson	BAL	BUF	29	+0.149	+0.157	-0.009	+4.3	1 / 1	-10.8	2	-9.8	-0.17	+8.9
Matthew Stafford	LA	PHI	49	+0.117	+0.076	+0.041	+5.7	0 / 1	-4.4	5	-10.5	-0.11	-5.1
C.J. Stroud	HOU	KC	36	+0.045	+0.027	+0.018	+1.6	0 / 0	+0.0	8	-13.3	+0.01	+7.1
Patrick Mahomes	KC	HOU	28	+0.018	-0.019	+0.037	+0.5	0 / 0	+0.0	3	-4.5	+0.06	+0.3
Josh Allen	BUF	BAL	23	+0.014	-0.075	+0.089	+0.3	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-1.1	+0.03	+5.5
Jared Goff	DET	WAS	39	-0.135	-0.085	-0.050	-5.3	3 / 1	-19.0	2	-6.8	+0.05	-5.4
Jalen Hurts	PHI	LA	27	-0.189	-0.176	-0.012	-5.1	0 / 0	+0.0	7	-11.9	-0.24	+4.6

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.