Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN L | 7–31 | -16.5dog 7.5 | -0.13 → -0.12 | +0.32 → +0.19 | -0.31 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 31–7 | +16.5fav 7.5 | +0.32 → +0.37 | -0.13 → -0.12 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| MIN L | 9–27 | -20.5fav 2.5 | -0.38 → -0.42 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 27–9 | +20.5dog 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.09 | -0.38 → -0.39 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LAC L | 12–32 | -23.0fav 3.0 | -0.52 → -0.48 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 73% | 4 / 3 |
| @ HOU W | 32–12 | +23.0dog 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.52 → -0.51 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 27% – 100% | 3 / 4 |
| GB L | 10–22 | -6.5dog 5.5 | -0.07 → -0.02 | +0.05 → -0.04 | +0.01 | 54%raw 16% | 0% – 43% | 3 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 22–10 | +6.5fav 5.5 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.07 → -0.14 | +0.22 | 92%raw 84% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| PIT L | 14–28 | -4.5dog 9.5 | +0.12 → +0.17 | +0.30 → +0.16 | +0.01 | 53%raw 8% | 0% – 44% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 28–14 | +4.5fav 9.5 | +0.30 → +0.32 | +0.12 → +0.15 | +0.17 | 87%raw 92% | 56% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| WAS W | 23–20 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.11 | +0.11 → +0.04 | +0.07 | 69%raw 52% | 3% – 82% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TB L | 20–23 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.06 | +0.11 → +0.06 | -0.00 | 50%raw 48% | 18% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | TB | WAS | 19 | +0.675 | +0.710 | -0.035 | +12.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | +0.52 | +20.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | DEN | 29 | +0.578 | +0.551 | +0.027 | +16.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.17 | +16.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 21 | +0.500 | +0.475 | +0.026 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.08 | +12.8 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | BAL | 33 | +0.341 | +0.246 | +0.095 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.0 | -0.06 | +12.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | TB | 36 | +0.277 | +0.308 | -0.030 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.55 | +10.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | MIN | 29 | +0.232 | +0.183 | +0.048 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.06 | +3.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | LAC | 36 | +0.054 | +0.032 | +0.022 | +1.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.04 | -1.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | GB | 23 | +0.053 | +0.023 | +0.030 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.07 | +3.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | PHI | 35 | -0.122 | -0.157 | +0.036 | -4.3 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.19 | -5.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | BUF | 24 | -0.326 | -0.310 | -0.016 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.05 | -4.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | HOU | 36 | -0.619 | -0.640 | +0.022 | -22.3 | 4 / 0 | -23.5 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.39 | -20.7 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | LA | 50 | -0.620 | -0.598 | -0.022 | -31.0 | 1 / 1 | -13.5 | 9 | -25.2 | -0.38 | -5.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.