Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR L | 10–47 | -33.5dog 3.5 | -0.49 → -0.50 | +0.21 → +0.24 | -0.74 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 47–10 | +33.5fav 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.12 | -0.49 → -0.42 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIN W | 28–6 | +21.0fav 1.0 | +0.16 → +0.12 | -0.36 → -0.28 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 32% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ NYG L | 6–28 | -21.0dog 1.0 | -0.36 → -0.32 | +0.16 → +0.17 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 68% | 2 / 2 |
| BAL L | 20–27 | -4.0dog 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.09 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.09 | 27%raw 15% | 3% – 62% | 1 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 27–20 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.21 → +0.27 | +0.08 → -0.06 | +0.33 | 98%raw 85% | 38% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| DEN L | 20–26 | +0.5dog 6.5 | -0.31 → -0.33 | -0.06 → -0.06 | -0.28 | 4%raw 3% | 1% – 72% | 3 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 26–20 | -0.5fav 6.5 | -0.06 → -0.02 | -0.31 → -0.32 | +0.30 | 97%raw 97% | 28% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| GB L | 29–34 | -3.0dog 2.0 | +0.20 → +0.26 | +0.06 → -0.02 | +0.29 | 96%raw 88% | 3% – 67% | 1 / 3 |
| @ PHI W | 34–29 | +3.0fav 2.0 | +0.06 → +0.09 | +0.20 → +0.14 | -0.05 | 36%raw 12% | 33% – 97% | 3 / 1 |
| PIT W | 18–10 | +12.0dog 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.35 → -0.35 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 31% – 98% | 0 / 3 |
| @ ATL L | 10–18 | -12.0fav 4.0 | -0.35 → -0.35 | -0.10 → -0.07 | -0.28 | 4%raw 3% | 2% – 69% | 3 / 0 |
| NE W | 16–10 | +14.0dog 8.0 | -0.01 → -0.04 | -0.18 → -0.23 | +0.19 | 89%raw 91% | 43% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CIN L | 10–16 | -14.0fav 8.0 | -0.18 → -0.21 | -0.01 → +0.09 | -0.30 | 3%raw 9% | 1% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| LV L | 10–22 | -9.0dog 3.0 | -0.33 → -0.32 | -0.07 → -0.05 | -0.26 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 73% | 3 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 22–10 | +9.0fav 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.07 | -0.33 → -0.25 | +0.18 | 88%raw 97% | 27% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| ARI L | 28–34 | +0.5dog 6.5 | +0.05 → +0.06 | +0.22 → +0.09 | -0.03 | 41%raw 8% | 1% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 34–28 | -0.5fav 6.5 | +0.22 → +0.18 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.15 | 84%raw 92% | 16% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| WAS L | 20–37 | -13.0dog 4.0 | +0.14 → +0.14 | +0.27 → +0.21 | -0.07 | 32%raw 15% | 0% – 45% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 37–20 | +13.0fav 4.0 | +0.27 → +0.23 | +0.14 → +0.09 | +0.14 | 82%raw 85% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| JAX L | 17–20 | +0.5dog 3.5 | -0.15 → -0.14 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.16 | 14%raw 9% | 21% – 91% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 20–17 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.02 → -0.05 | -0.15 → -0.12 | +0.07 | 70%raw 91% | 9% – 79% | 0 / 1 |
| LA L | 20–26 | -1.0dog 5.0 | +0.04 → +0.07 | +0.11 → -0.01 | +0.07 | 69%raw 30% | 5% – 76% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 26–20 | +1.0fav 5.0 | +0.11 → +0.09 | +0.04 → +0.02 | +0.06 | 67%raw 70% | 24% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 19–32 | -9.5dog 3.5 | -0.01 → -0.02 | +0.10 → +0.03 | -0.05 | 38%raw 18% | 0% – 54% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 32–19 | +9.5fav 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.01 → +0.05 | +0.07 | 68%raw 82% | 46% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DAL W | 33–17 | +18.5dog 2.5 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.27 → -0.15 | +0.06 | 66%raw 90% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 17–33 | -18.5fav 2.5 | -0.27 → -0.31 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.23 | 7%raw 10% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| HOU W | 29–27 | -1.0fav 3.0 | +0.16 → +0.15 | +0.08 → +0.11 | +0.04 | 62%raw 75% | 38% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ IND L | 27–29 | +1.0dog 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.13 | +0.16 → +0.19 | -0.06 | 33%raw 25% | 4% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| TEN L | 17–24 | -3.0dog 4.0 | -0.26 → -0.27 | -0.27 → -0.23 | -0.04 | 39%raw 53% | 1% – 92% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 24–17 | +3.0fav 4.0 | -0.27 → -0.30 | -0.26 → -0.20 | -0.10 | 24%raw 47% | 8% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | TB | WAS | 31 | +0.631 | +0.664 | -0.033 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.35 | +12.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BAL | 30 | +0.470 | +0.369 | +0.101 | +14.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.24 | +4.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | GB | 35 | +0.344 | +0.306 | +0.039 | +12.1 | 2 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.29 | +1.2 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | NYG | 25 | +0.336 | +0.382 | -0.046 | +8.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.15 | +16.7 |
| Derek Carr | NO | CAR | 24 | +0.305 | +0.356 | -0.051 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.09 | +13.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | ARI | 25 | +0.303 | +0.366 | -0.063 | +7.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 2 | -6.5 | +0.34 | +9.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | NYJ | 31 | +0.248 | +0.210 | +0.039 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.17 | +1.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 36 | +0.177 | +0.209 | -0.032 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.3 | +0.43 | +9.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | SF | 22 | +0.176 | +0.148 | +0.028 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.02 | -5.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | PHI | 35 | +0.121 | +0.080 | +0.040 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | +0.4 | +0.06 | -10.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DET | 51 | +0.092 | +0.089 | +0.003 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.06 | +0.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | MIA | 24 | +0.080 | +0.071 | +0.009 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.07 | -0.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | JAX | 40 | +0.044 | +0.108 | -0.064 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.09 | -7.7 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | LAC | 37 | -0.016 | -0.034 | +0.018 | -0.6 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 4 | -11.4 | +0.10 | +1.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | KC | 42 | -0.044 | -0.059 | +0.015 | -1.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 1 | -5.6 | -0.12 | -3.7 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | BUF | 35 | -0.045 | -0.034 | -0.011 | -1.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.9 | 4 | -9.3 | -0.24 | +1.2 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | ATL | 25 | -0.086 | -0.054 | -0.032 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.01 | +4.9 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | CIN | 25 | -0.097 | -0.079 | -0.018 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | +0.2 | +0.07 | +1.1 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | TB | 27 | -0.098 | -0.064 | -0.034 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.15 | -3.2 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | HOU | 21 | -0.104 | -0.144 | +0.040 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.05 | -14.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | CLE | 35 | -0.145 | -0.190 | +0.046 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.01 | -6.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | NE | 32 | -0.167 | -0.130 | -0.037 | -5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.30 | -0.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | LA | 30 | -0.172 | -0.160 | -0.011 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.15 | -7.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 27 | -0.175 | -0.181 | +0.006 | -4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.15 | -0.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | DEN | 28 | -0.192 | -0.205 | +0.013 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.17 | +5.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | PIT | 27 | -0.402 | -0.407 | +0.005 | -10.9 | 2 / 0 | -12.4 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.30 | -2.0 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | TEN | 32 | -0.412 | -0.380 | -0.033 | -13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.22 | -19.8 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | SEA | 44 | -0.442 | -0.415 | -0.027 | -19.5 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 2 | -1.2 | -0.57 | -5.1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | MIN | 47 | -0.447 | -0.481 | +0.033 | -21.0 | 2 / 0 | -11.7 | 5 | -5.4 | -0.27 | -10.7 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | DAL | 51 | -0.487 | -0.453 | -0.034 | -24.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 6 | -10.1 | -0.25 | -8.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NO | 34 | -0.502 | -0.525 | +0.022 | -17.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.6 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.11 | -15.3 |
| Will Levis | TEN | CHI | 35 | -0.530 | -0.519 | -0.011 | -18.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.3 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.79 | +4.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.