Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC L | 0–38 | -27.5dog 10.5 | -0.45 → -0.41 | +0.41 → +0.43 | -0.84 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 38–0 | +27.5fav 10.5 | +0.41 → +0.43 | -0.45 → -0.50 | +0.93 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| CLE L | 10–35 | -5.5dog 19.5 | -0.45 → -0.41 | +0.16 → +0.02 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 35–10 | +5.5fav 19.5 | +0.16 → +0.19 | -0.45 → -0.33 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| MIN L | 9–31 | -19.0dog 3.0 | -0.34 → -0.33 | +0.01 → -0.10 | -0.23 | 7%raw 1% | 0% – 54% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DET W | 31–9 | +19.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.07 | -0.34 → -0.34 | +0.41 | 99%raw 99% | 46% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| SF L | 24–47 | -18.5dog 4.5 | +0.01 → -0.04 | +0.27 → +0.26 | -0.30 | 3%raw 3% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 0 |
| @ ARI W | 47–24 | +18.5fav 4.5 | +0.27 → +0.27 | +0.01 → -0.07 | +0.34 | 98%raw 97% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| LAC W | 34–20 | +7.0fav 7.0 | +0.28 → +0.29 | -0.10 → -0.01 | +0.30 | 96%raw 99% | 25% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 20–34 | -7.0dog 7.0 | -0.10 → -0.08 | +0.28 → +0.31 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 75% | 1 / 0 |
| BUF L | 16–23 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.09 | +0.03 → +0.13 | -0.22 | 8%raw 20% | 1% – 57% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NE W | 23–16 | +10.0dog 3.0 | +0.03 → +0.04 | -0.07 → -0.21 | +0.25 | 94%raw 80% | 43% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| SEA W | 30–25 | -2.5fav 7.5 | +0.26 → +0.25 | +0.04 → +0.02 | +0.23 | 93%raw 95% | 37% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LA L | 25–30 | +2.5dog 7.5 | +0.04 → +0.03 | +0.26 → +0.28 | -0.25 | 5%raw 5% | 3% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| NO L | 19–27 | +6.5dog 14.5 | +0.00 → -0.00 | +0.22 → +0.16 | -0.17 | 13%raw 5% | 1% – 84% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 27–19 | -6.5fav 14.5 | +0.22 → +0.23 | +0.00 → +0.03 | +0.20 | 91%raw 95% | 16% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| MIA L | 20–32 | -10.5dog 1.5 | -0.13 → -0.11 | +0.04 → +0.11 | -0.23 | 7%raw 9% | 1% – 70% | 4 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 32–20 | +10.5fav 1.5 | +0.04 → +0.06 | -0.13 → -0.13 | +0.20 | 90%raw 91% | 30% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| HOU W | 23–14 | +11.5dog 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.21 → -0.14 | +0.19 | 89%raw 97% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 14–23 | -11.5fav 2.5 | -0.21 → -0.16 | +0.06 → +0.10 | -0.26 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN W | 19–17 | -0.5fav 2.5 | -0.03 → -0.02 | -0.17 → -0.15 | +0.13 | 81%raw 88% | 42% – 95% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PIT L | 17–19 | +0.5dog 2.5 | -0.17 → -0.21 | -0.03 → -0.07 | -0.14 | 17%raw 12% | 5% – 58% | 0 / 1 |
| CAR W | 44–38 | +13.5dog 7.5 | +0.41 → +0.41 | +0.29 → +0.31 | +0.10 | 75%raw 84% | 20% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 38–44 | -13.5fav 7.5 | +0.29 → +0.21 | +0.41 → +0.51 | -0.30 | 3%raw 16% | 4% – 80% | 1 / 0 |
| WAS W | 23–19 | -3.0fav 7.0 | +0.11 → +0.08 | -0.04 → -0.01 | +0.10 | 74%raw 89% | 17% – 93% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DAL L | 19–23 | +3.0dog 7.0 | -0.04 → -0.09 | +0.11 → +0.06 | -0.15 | 16%raw 11% | 7% – 83% | 0 / 0 |
| NYG L | 13–20 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.07 | -0.04 → -0.12 | +0.06 | 65%raw 26% | 1% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 20–13 | +4.0fav 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.08 | -0.12 → -0.03 | -0.05 | 37%raw 74% | 52% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| CHI W | 24–22 | +12.0dog 10.0 | -0.17 → -0.14 | -0.09 → -0.16 | +0.02 | 55%raw 26% | 30% – 92% | 2 / 2 |
| @ GB L | 22–24 | -12.0fav 10.0 | -0.09 → -0.09 | -0.17 → -0.12 | +0.03 | 59%raw 74% | 8% – 70% | 2 / 2 |
| JAX L | 23–26 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.01 → +0.05 | -0.02 | 45%raw 56% | 9% – 60% | 1 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 26–23 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.01 → -0.06 | +0.03 → +0.06 | -0.12 | 20%raw 44% | 40% – 91% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | KC | 29 | +0.930 | +0.895 | +0.034 | +27.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +19.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ATL | 34 | +0.572 | +0.589 | -0.017 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.96 | +6.1 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 37 | +0.523 | +0.498 | +0.025 | +19.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.6 | +0.33 | +10.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | DAL | 20 | +0.512 | +0.538 | -0.025 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.68 | +23.5 |
| Joe Milton III | NE | BUF | 29 | +0.399 | +0.407 | -0.007 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +17.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NO | 33 | +0.327 | +0.285 | +0.042 | +10.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.69 | +2.9 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 30 | +0.327 | +0.328 | -0.001 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.53 | +6.4 |
| Will Levis | TEN | HOU | 19 | +0.291 | +0.249 | +0.042 | +5.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | -2.6 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SF | 35 | +0.258 | +0.229 | +0.029 | +9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +8.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 31 | +0.224 | +0.170 | +0.054 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -8.0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | BUF | NE | 21 | +0.181 | +0.216 | -0.036 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | +6.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | GB | 29 | +0.163 | +0.136 | +0.027 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.11 | +14.2 |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | NYG | 43 | +0.124 | +0.175 | -0.050 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.19 | -2.2 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | HOU | 10 | +0.095 | +0.053 | +0.042 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.01 | +0.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 35 | +0.090 | +0.045 | +0.045 | +3.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.27 | +10.0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | CAR | 39 | +0.088 | +0.140 | -0.052 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.35 | -6.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | MIA | 39 | +0.058 | +0.052 | +0.006 | +2.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.09 | -3.0 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | IND | 34 | +0.047 | +0.080 | -0.034 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.28 | -2.7 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LA | SEA | 45 | +0.028 | +0.046 | -0.018 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.13 | -3.1 |
| Joshua Dobbs | SF | ARI | 44 | +0.000 | +0.075 | -0.075 | +0.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.28 | -0.3 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 50 | -0.014 | -0.029 | +0.014 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.05 | +8.2 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | TB | 44 | -0.062 | -0.024 | -0.037 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.04 | +1.9 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | LAC | 34 | -0.095 | -0.114 | +0.018 | -3.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.27 | +4.4 |
| Trey Lance | DAL | WAS | 36 | -0.119 | -0.071 | -0.048 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.05 | -8.7 |
| Tyler Huntley | MIA | NYJ | 45 | -0.122 | -0.154 | +0.032 | -5.5 | 2 / 1 | -11.7 | 4 | -9.2 | -0.43 | +4.8 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | JAX | 43 | -0.155 | -0.086 | -0.069 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.03 | -7.9 |
| Malik Willis | GB | CHI | 17 | -0.167 | -0.162 | -0.005 | -2.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.16 | +11.9 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | CIN | 35 | -0.176 | -0.154 | -0.022 | -6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.0 | -0.58 | -9.4 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | TEN | 23 | -0.186 | -0.164 | -0.023 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.05 | -13.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 12 | -0.238 | -0.233 | -0.005 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.08 | -12.0 |
| Drew Lock | NYG | PHI | 29 | -0.267 | -0.299 | +0.032 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -1.7 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.23 | +4.5 |
| Carson Wentz | KC | DEN | 21 | -0.415 | -0.418 | +0.003 | -8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.05 | -5.4 |
| Bailey Zappe | CLE | BAL | 32 | -0.447 | -0.527 | +0.080 | -14.3 | 2 / 0 | -11.9 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.27 | -13.6 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | DET | 43 | -0.589 | -0.577 | -0.012 | -25.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.45 | -17.7 |
| Mike White | BUF | NE | 11 | -0.686 | -0.650 | -0.036 | -7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.22 | -36.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | DAL | 16 | -0.739 | -0.713 | -0.025 | -11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.31 | -18.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.