Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Week 12345678910111213141516171819202122

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

TeamScorevs lineOff EPA/playraw → adj Def EPA/playraw → adjAdj marginWin exp Win prob rangeTurnoverslost / forced
WAS L 23–55 -26.0dog 6.0 -0.09 → -0.04 +0.42 → +0.35 -0.39 1%raw 0% 0% – 56% 3 / 0
@ PHI W 55–23 +26.0fav 6.0 +0.42 → +0.39 -0.09 → -0.15 +0.53 100%raw 100% 44% – 100% 0 / 3
BUF L 29–32 -1.5dog 1.5 +0.19 → +0.20 +0.26 → +0.23 -0.03 43%raw 29% 2% – 63% 0 / 1
@ KC W 32–29 +1.5fav 1.5 +0.26 → +0.27 +0.19 → +0.06 +0.22 92%raw 71% 37% – 98% 1 / 0

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

QuarterbackTeam Opp DropbacksAdj EPA/dbRaw EPA/dbScheduleTotal adj EPA INT / FLTurnover EPASacksSack EPAWPACPOE
Patrick Mahomes KC BUF 29 +0.595 +0.594 +0.001 +17.2 0 / 0 +0.0 2 -3.4 +0.47 +5.2
Jalen Hurts PHI WAS 30 +0.498 +0.534 -0.036 +14.9 0 / 0 +0.0 2 -4.1 +0.18 +15.4
Josh Allen BUF KC 37 +0.217 +0.197 +0.020 +8.0 0 / 0 +0.0 2 -2.1 +0.10 +5.2
Jayden Daniels WAS PHI 53 +0.042 +0.000 +0.042 +2.2 1 / 0 -3.4 3 -6.2 -0.12 -6.1
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.