Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF L | 10–35 | -18.5dog 6.5 | -0.25 → -0.24 | +0.35 → +0.22 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 35–10 | +18.5fav 6.5 | +0.35 → +0.35 | -0.25 → -0.33 | +0.68 | 100%raw 100% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| TEN L | 19–42 | -17.0dog 6.0 | -0.08 → -0.13 | +0.29 → +0.25 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 44% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 42–19 | +17.0fav 6.0 | +0.29 → +0.28 | -0.08 → -0.02 | +0.30 | 97%raw 99% | 56% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT W | 44–38 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.28 → +0.25 | -0.00 → -0.04 | +0.30 | 96%raw 98% | 28% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CIN L | 38–44 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.00 → +0.01 | +0.28 → +0.32 | -0.30 | 3%raw 2% | 1% – 72% | 3 / 1 |
| PHI W | 24–19 | +8.0dog 3.0 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.00 → -0.15 | +0.25 | 94%raw 65% | 15% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BAL L | 19–24 | -8.0fav 3.0 | -0.00 → +0.05 | +0.05 → -0.04 | +0.09 | 73%raw 35% | 0% – 85% | 0 / 0 |
| SEA W | 26–21 | +6.0dog 1.0 | -0.02 → +0.00 | -0.29 → -0.24 | +0.24 | 93%raw 98% | 7% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NYJ L | 21–26 | -6.0fav 1.0 | -0.29 → -0.31 | -0.02 → -0.01 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 3% – 93% | 2 / 0 |
| LA W | 21–14 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.07 → -0.05 | +0.18 | 88%raw 94% | 27% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NO L | 14–21 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.13 → +0.11 | -0.21 | 9%raw 6% | 1% – 73% | 0 / 0 |
| LV L | 17–19 | +11.5dog 13.5 | +0.08 → +0.09 | -0.04 → -0.08 | +0.17 | 87%raw 84% | 4% – 60% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 19–17 | -11.5fav 13.5 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.08 → +0.18 | -0.22 | 8%raw 16% | 40% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| ARI L | 22–23 | +2.5dog 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.09 | -0.07 → -0.06 | +0.15 | 84%raw 80% | 10% – 89% | 2 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 23–22 | -2.5fav 3.5 | -0.07 → -0.12 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.14 | 17%raw 20% | 11% – 90% | 1 / 2 |
| MIA L | 17–30 | -9.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.12 | +0.21 → +0.15 | -0.03 | 41%raw 15% | 0% – 51% | 0 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 30–17 | +9.5fav 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.23 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.15 | 84%raw 85% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| TB W | 26–23 | -3.5fav 6.5 | -0.03 → -0.12 | +0.00 → +0.08 | -0.21 | 9%raw 39% | 17% – 96% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 23–26 | +3.5dog 6.5 | +0.00 → -0.00 | -0.03 → -0.10 | +0.10 | 75%raw 61% | 4% – 83% | 1 / 2 |
| LAC W | 17–13 | +3.0fav 1.0 | -0.32 → -0.35 | -0.24 → -0.24 | -0.11 | 23%raw 25% | 30% – 96% | 1 / 4 |
| @ ATL L | 13–17 | -3.0dog 1.0 | -0.24 → -0.22 | -0.32 → -0.31 | +0.09 | 73%raw 75% | 4% – 70% | 4 / 1 |
| CHI L | 20–23 | +6.5dog 9.5 | +0.01 → +0.03 | +0.07 → -0.04 | +0.07 | 68%raw 29% | 4% – 51% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 23–20 | -6.5fav 9.5 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.01 → +0.06 | +0.02 | 55%raw 71% | 49% – 96% | 1 / 0 |
| IND W | 25–24 | -1.5fav 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.05 | +0.17 → +0.27 | -0.22 | 8%raw 21% | 9% – 65% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 24–25 | +1.5dog 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.17 | +0.07 → +0.11 | +0.06 | 67%raw 79% | 35% – 91% | 1 / 2 |
| CLE L | 32–41 | -2.5dog 6.5 | -0.07 → -0.03 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.10 | 24%raw 12% | 0% – 65% | 3 / 2 |
| @ DEN W | 41–32 | +2.5fav 6.5 | +0.07 → +0.10 | -0.07 → +0.06 | +0.04 | 62%raw 88% | 35% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| HOU W | 23–20 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.07 → +0.01 | +0.08 → +0.12 | -0.12 | 22%raw 46% | 42% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| @ JAX L | 20–23 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.08 → +0.14 | +0.07 → +0.11 | +0.03 | 58%raw 54% | 2% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG L | 20–27 | -2.5dog 4.5 | -0.23 → -0.26 | -0.14 → -0.11 | -0.15 | 16%raw 23% | 1% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 27–20 | +2.5fav 4.5 | -0.14 → -0.18 | -0.23 → -0.14 | -0.04 | 40%raw 77% | 37% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | SF | 17 | +0.474 | +0.439 | +0.035 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | +9.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | MIA | 28 | +0.470 | +0.452 | +0.017 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +7.0 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | HOU | 34 | +0.461 | +0.420 | +0.041 | +15.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | -1.8 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | CIN | 40 | +0.378 | +0.388 | -0.010 | +15.1 | 1 / 0 | -8.3 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.42 | +12.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | TEN | 32 | +0.299 | +0.316 | -0.018 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.11 | +10.9 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | KC | 37 | +0.271 | +0.250 | +0.021 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.33 | -1.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | GB | 53 | +0.260 | +0.225 | +0.035 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.4 | -0.01 | +8.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 35 | +0.208 | +0.204 | +0.004 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.24 | -2.6 |
| Drake Maye | NE | IND | 35 | +0.194 | +0.223 | -0.029 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -5.0 | +0.16 | +10.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | CLE | 35 | +0.147 | +0.094 | +0.053 | +5.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | MIN | 45 | +0.062 | +0.017 | +0.045 | +2.8 | 2 / 0 | -2.7 | 1 | -0.8 | -0.09 | +1.9 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 47 | +0.062 | +0.096 | -0.035 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.59 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NO | 26 | +0.044 | +0.011 | +0.032 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.28 | -3.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 50 | +0.035 | +0.024 | +0.011 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.7 | -0.06 | -7.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PHI | 39 | +0.016 | -0.025 | +0.041 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.34 | +2.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | BAL | 21 | +0.015 | -0.075 | +0.090 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.02 | -2.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | 36 | +0.013 | +0.079 | -0.066 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.13 | -1.0 |
| Will Levis | TEN | WAS | 40 | +0.002 | +0.048 | -0.046 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.09 | -10.2 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NYJ | 34 | -0.012 | -0.046 | +0.034 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.4 | -0.28 | +3.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 42 | -0.014 | -0.028 | +0.014 | -0.6 | 1 / 2 | -17.9 | 4 | -16.3 | -0.01 | +9.5 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | DEN | 62 | -0.024 | -0.038 | +0.014 | -1.5 | 3 / 0 | -26.7 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.03 | -3.3 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | DET | 44 | -0.027 | -0.029 | +0.002 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.1 | -0.49 | -8.3 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | ARI | 36 | -0.044 | +0.030 | -0.074 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | +0.06 | +1.9 |
| Derek Carr | NO | LA | 38 | -0.052 | -0.042 | -0.009 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -2.4 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | NE | 24 | -0.094 | -0.059 | -0.035 | -2.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.08 | -2.8 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | NYG | 36 | -0.132 | -0.076 | -0.057 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -11.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | ATL | 29 | -0.218 | -0.179 | -0.039 | -6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.7 | -0.23 | +1.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | LAC | 40 | -0.278 | -0.291 | +0.013 | -11.1 | 4 / 0 | -18.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.66 | -5.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 37 | -0.290 | -0.228 | -0.062 | -10.7 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.05 | -2.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | BUF | 19 | -0.364 | -0.341 | -0.023 | -6.9 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 2 | -6.6 | -0.07 | -8.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | SEA | 41 | -0.369 | -0.342 | -0.027 | -15.1 | 1 / 0 | -10.9 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.40 | -10.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 10 | -0.463 | -0.504 | +0.041 | -4.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.18 | -17.2 |
| Drew Lock | NYG | DAL | 38 | -0.580 | -0.547 | -0.033 | -22.0 | 1 / 1 | -13.9 | 6 | -14.1 | -0.73 | -1.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.