Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI W | 34–6 | +20.5fav 7.5 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.71 → -0.70 | +0.62 | 100%raw 100% | 44% – 100% | 2 / 5 |
| @ DAL L | 6–34 | -20.5dog 7.5 | -0.71 → -0.67 | -0.05 → -0.13 | -0.54 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 56% | 5 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 6–31 | -27.0fav 2.0 | -0.16 → -0.22 | +0.38 → +0.37 | -0.58 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI W | 31–6 | +27.0dog 2.0 | +0.38 → +0.40 | -0.16 → -0.10 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NE W | 19–3 | +22.5dog 6.5 | +0.00 → +0.01 | -0.40 → -0.36 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CHI L | 3–19 | -22.5fav 6.5 | -0.40 → -0.44 | +0.00 → +0.10 | -0.54 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 0 / 1 |
| SF W | 23–20 | -3.5fav 6.5 | +0.24 → +0.24 | -0.06 → -0.13 | +0.37 | 98%raw 98% | 21% – 83% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB L | 20–23 | +3.5dog 6.5 | -0.06 → -0.06 | +0.24 → +0.17 | -0.23 | 7%raw 2% | 17% – 79% | 0 / 0 |
| MIN W | 12–7 | -2.0fav 7.0 | -0.00 → -0.07 | -0.34 → -0.32 | +0.24 | 94%raw 99% | 28% – 97% | 3 / 3 |
| @ JAX L | 7–12 | +2.0dog 7.0 | -0.34 → -0.30 | -0.00 → +0.00 | -0.30 | 3%raw 1% | 3% – 72% | 3 / 3 |
| BUF W | 30–20 | +5.5fav 4.5 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.25 → -0.23 | +0.24 | 94%raw 98% | 29% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| @ IND L | 20–30 | -5.5dog 4.5 | -0.25 → -0.25 | +0.02 → -0.12 | -0.13 | 19%raw 2% | 0% – 71% | 4 / 2 |
| CIN L | 34–35 | +5.0dog 6.0 | +0.11 → +0.17 | +0.31 → +0.17 | -0.00 | 49%raw 6% | 5% – 92% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 35–34 | -5.0fav 6.0 | +0.31 → +0.29 | +0.11 → +0.07 | +0.21 | 91%raw 94% | 8% – 95% | 0 / 1 |
| DET W | 26–23 | -1.5fav 4.5 | -0.10 → -0.06 | -0.23 → -0.20 | +0.14 | 83%raw 84% | 7% – 74% | 5 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 23–26 | +1.5dog 4.5 | -0.23 → -0.21 | -0.10 → -0.22 | +0.01 | 53%raw 16% | 26% – 93% | 2 / 5 |
| MIA W | 23–15 | +10.5dog 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.15 | -0.24 → -0.27 | +0.13 | 81%raw 84% | 40% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 15–23 | -10.5fav 2.5 | -0.24 → -0.23 | -0.12 → -0.13 | -0.11 | 23%raw 16% | 1% – 60% | 2 / 2 |
| PIT W | 28–27 | +2.5dog 1.5 | -0.02 → -0.07 | -0.14 → -0.19 | +0.12 | 80%raw 82% | 15% – 90% | 2 / 0 |
| @ WAS L | 27–28 | -2.5fav 1.5 | -0.14 → -0.13 | -0.02 → +0.01 | -0.14 | 18%raw 18% | 10% – 85% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN L | 14–16 | +5.5dog 7.5 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.00 → -0.03 | +0.11 | 78%raw 72% | 27% – 78% | 0 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 16–14 | -5.5fav 7.5 | +0.00 → +0.05 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.03 | 42%raw 28% | 22% – 73% | 0 / 0 |
| ATL L | 17–20 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.00 → +0.03 | +0.04 | 62%raw 72% | 9% – 46% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 20–17 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.00 → -0.01 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.10 | 25%raw 28% | 54% – 91% | 0 / 1 |
| TEN L | 17–27 | -2.0dog 8.0 | +0.12 → +0.15 | +0.20 → +0.23 | -0.08 | 29%raw 24% | 0% – 67% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 27–17 | +2.0fav 8.0 | +0.20 → +0.19 | +0.12 → +0.19 | -0.00 | 49%raw 76% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| NYG L | 17–20 | -9.5fav 6.5 | -0.12 → -0.22 | -0.02 → +0.06 | -0.28 | 4%raw 19% | 7% – 58% | 3 / 1 |
| @ CAR W | 20–17 | +9.5dog 6.5 | -0.02 → -0.05 | -0.12 → -0.04 | -0.02 | 45%raw 81% | 42% – 93% | 1 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | ARI | NYJ | 25 | +0.772 | +0.719 | +0.053 | +19.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.35 | +18.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 33 | +0.592 | +0.596 | -0.004 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.92 | +12.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | TEN | 18 | +0.522 | +0.537 | -0.015 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +8.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | TB | 38 | +0.416 | +0.443 | -0.027 | +15.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.79 | +8.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 60 | +0.300 | +0.204 | +0.096 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.7 | +0.42 | +0.7 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | KC | 32 | +0.261 | +0.241 | +0.020 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.43 | +12.6 |
| Derek Carr | NO | ATL | 25 | +0.222 | +0.249 | -0.027 | +5.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +5.7 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | WAS | 31 | +0.193 | +0.236 | -0.043 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.33 | -2.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 46 | +0.102 | +0.084 | +0.017 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.7 | +0.22 | +2.3 |
| Will Levis | TEN | LAC | 30 | +0.069 | +0.045 | +0.023 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -7.1 | +0.07 | +10.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | NO | 41 | +0.001 | -0.030 | +0.031 | +0.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.57 | -2.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | HOU | 30 | -0.027 | -0.062 | +0.036 | -0.8 | 5 / 0 | -17.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -2.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | SF | 31 | -0.028 | -0.049 | +0.021 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.11 | -8.5 |
| Drake Maye | NE | CHI | 26 | -0.052 | -0.051 | -0.000 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.08 | +5.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | LA | 31 | -0.060 | -0.049 | -0.010 | -1.8 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 3 | -8.3 | +0.06 | -3.3 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | JAX | 39 | -0.129 | -0.062 | -0.067 | -5.0 | 3 / 0 | -14.9 | 1 | -2.6 | -0.12 | +0.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NYG | 26 | -0.147 | -0.092 | -0.055 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.41 | -5.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | MIA | 49 | -0.150 | -0.152 | +0.002 | -7.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 4 | -8.5 | -0.22 | +1.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | DET | 37 | -0.161 | -0.159 | -0.003 | -6.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.16 | -8.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | IND | 39 | -0.205 | -0.166 | -0.039 | -8.0 | 2 / 0 | -11.5 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.02 | -8.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 25 | -0.219 | -0.192 | -0.027 | -5.5 | 1 / 1 | -12.2 | 5 | -12.2 | -0.09 | +19.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | PIT | 37 | -0.241 | -0.250 | +0.009 | -8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.52 | -12.7 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | MIN | 25 | -0.323 | -0.360 | +0.037 | -8.1 | 2 / 0 | -5.5 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.53 | -1.0 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | CAR | 38 | -0.336 | -0.273 | -0.063 | -12.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.47 | +0.7 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | BUF | 39 | -0.341 | -0.319 | -0.022 | -13.3 | 3 / 1 | -23.3 | 4 | -12.9 | -0.45 | +6.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | ARI | 38 | -0.370 | -0.287 | -0.083 | -14.1 | 0 / 1 | -3.7 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.14 | -2.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | NE | 39 | -0.619 | -0.573 | -0.046 | -24.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -14.2 | -0.43 | -8.3 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | PHI | 24 | -0.683 | -0.706 | +0.023 | -16.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | -0.32 | -13.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.