Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX L | 10–47 | -33.0dog 4.0 | -0.24 → -0.24 | +0.45 → +0.32 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 49% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 47–10 | +33.0fav 4.0 | +0.45 → +0.39 | -0.24 → -0.22 | +0.61 | 100%raw 100% | 51% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NE L | 3–24 | -14.5dog 6.5 | -0.40 → -0.39 | +0.26 → +0.33 | -0.72 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYJ W | 24–3 | +14.5fav 6.5 | +0.26 → +0.24 | -0.40 → -0.32 | +0.56 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| DEN W | 26–7 | +25.0dog 6.0 | +0.08 → +0.08 | -0.38 → -0.46 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 7–26 | -25.0fav 6.0 | -0.38 → -0.34 | +0.08 → +0.09 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| MIA L | 3–24 | -17.0dog 4.0 | -0.43 → -0.46 | -0.00 → +0.01 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SEA W | 24–3 | +17.0fav 4.0 | -0.00 → +0.01 | -0.43 → -0.45 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| GB W | 30–14 | +19.0dog 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.10 | -0.37 → -0.31 | +0.41 | 99%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ TEN L | 14–30 | -19.0fav 3.0 | -0.37 → -0.34 | +0.12 → +0.06 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 3 / 0 |
| HOU L | 7–34 | -29.0fav 2.0 | -0.22 → -0.18 | +0.11 → +0.12 | -0.30 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 34–7 | +29.0dog 2.0 | +0.11 → +0.16 | -0.22 → -0.19 | +0.36 | 98%raw 99% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYG W | 21–15 | +12.5dog 6.5 | +0.04 → +0.08 | -0.40 → -0.28 | +0.35 | 98%raw 100% | 19% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 15–21 | -12.5fav 6.5 | -0.40 → -0.45 | +0.04 → +0.14 | -0.59 | 0%raw 0% | 1% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
| LAC L | 10–20 | -7.0dog 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.16 | +0.13 → +0.17 | -0.32 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 66% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 20–10 | +7.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.16 | -0.16 → -0.15 | +0.31 | 97%raw 98% | 34% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL W | 28–25 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.37 → +0.36 | +0.03 → +0.07 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 25–28 | -1.5dog 1.5 | +0.03 → +0.09 | +0.37 → +0.24 | -0.15 | 16%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| DET W | 20–13 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.04 → -0.01 | -0.24 → -0.26 | +0.26 | 95%raw 98% | 43% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 13–20 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.23 | +0.04 → -0.07 | -0.16 | 15%raw 2% | 1% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| CAR W | 36–22 | +19.5dog 5.5 | +0.22 → +0.23 | -0.10 → -0.01 | +0.24 | 93%raw 99% | 39% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 22–36 | -19.5fav 5.5 | -0.10 → -0.20 | +0.22 → +0.31 | -0.50 | 0%raw 1% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 0 |
| PHI W | 15–12 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.19 → -0.17 | +0.18 | 89%raw 94% | 16% – 94% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 12–15 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.19 → -0.14 | +0.02 → -0.06 | -0.07 | 31%raw 6% | 6% – 84% | 1 / 2 |
| KC W | 22–17 | +2.0fav 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.18 | 88%raw 94% | 25% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 17–22 | -2.0dog 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.10 | +0.10 → +0.07 | -0.16 | 14%raw 6% | 3% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
| WAS W | 38–33 | +12.5dog 7.5 | +0.52 → +0.50 | +0.39 → +0.36 | +0.14 | 82%raw 85% | 30% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CIN L | 33–38 | -12.5fav 7.5 | +0.39 → +0.36 | +0.52 → +0.48 | -0.12 | 20%raw 15% | 2% – 70% | 0 / 0 |
| SF L | 24–27 | -9.0fav 6.0 | +0.20 → +0.18 | +0.12 → +0.10 | +0.08 | 72%raw 75% | 9% – 94% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 27–24 | +9.0dog 6.0 | +0.12 → +0.12 | +0.20 → +0.13 | -0.01 | 47%raw 25% | 6% – 91% | 0 / 1 |
| CHI L | 16–21 | -3.5dog 1.5 | -0.19 → -0.20 | -0.21 → -0.19 | -0.02 | 45%raw 57% | 2% – 54% | 3 / 2 |
| @ IND W | 21–16 | +3.5fav 1.5 | -0.21 → -0.22 | -0.19 → -0.15 | -0.07 | 31%raw 43% | 46% – 98% | 2 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | CIN | 25 | +0.865 | +0.864 | +0.000 | +21.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.55 | +28.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DAL | 15 | +0.700 | +0.711 | -0.011 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +4.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | JAX | 30 | +0.698 | +0.747 | -0.050 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | NE | 37 | +0.470 | +0.492 | -0.022 | +17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.31 | +12.7 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | LA | 31 | +0.462 | +0.462 | +0.000 | +14.3 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 1 | -3.1 | +0.20 | +8.3 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | CAR | 13 | +0.372 | +0.427 | -0.056 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.00 | +5.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | WAS | 41 | +0.353 | +0.391 | -0.038 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.23 | +9.2 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | CLE | 36 | +0.329 | +0.274 | +0.056 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.25 | +7.8 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | LV | 40 | +0.327 | +0.309 | +0.019 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.44 | -2.5 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | LAC | 34 | +0.267 | +0.241 | +0.026 | +9.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.33 | +10.2 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | HOU | 32 | +0.205 | +0.164 | +0.041 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.0 | +0.11 | +1.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | BAL | 56 | +0.205 | +0.111 | +0.094 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.03 | -10.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | ARI | 25 | +0.165 | +0.235 | -0.070 | +4.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.23 | +10.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 28 | +0.147 | +0.122 | +0.025 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.06 | +3.7 |
| Malik Willis | GB | TEN | 22 | +0.143 | +0.160 | -0.017 | +3.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.25 | -1.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | KC | 31 | +0.107 | +0.090 | +0.017 | +3.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.04 | +6.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | PIT | 20 | +0.091 | +0.078 | +0.013 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.11 | +3.4 |
| Derek Carr | NO | PHI | 27 | +0.061 | +0.022 | +0.039 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.10 | -6.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | ATL | 39 | +0.032 | +0.062 | -0.030 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +1.3 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | TB | 36 | +0.025 | +0.059 | -0.034 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +4.9 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | MIA | 37 | -0.017 | -0.022 | +0.005 | -0.6 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.03 | +6.7 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | MIN | 13 | -0.058 | -0.097 | +0.039 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.00 | -6.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NO | 42 | -0.090 | -0.120 | +0.030 | -3.8 | 1 / 1 | -10.5 | 4 | -12.4 | +0.13 | +9.9 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | DET | 35 | -0.162 | -0.161 | -0.001 | -5.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.15 | -1.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | IND | 56 | -0.170 | -0.131 | -0.040 | -9.5 | 2 / 1 | -14.9 | 4 | -10.6 | -0.34 | +2.7 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | CAR | 31 | -0.194 | -0.139 | -0.056 | -6.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.11 | -6.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | MIN | 34 | -0.220 | -0.259 | +0.039 | -7.5 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.16 | -5.7 |
| Will Levis | TEN | GB | 42 | -0.385 | -0.404 | +0.020 | -16.2 | 2 / 1 | -15.8 | 8 | -18.2 | -0.30 | +5.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BUF | 42 | -0.410 | -0.383 | -0.027 | -17.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 4 | -8.0 | -0.14 | -5.6 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | SEA | 24 | -0.438 | -0.407 | -0.030 | -10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.4 | -0.17 | +7.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | NYJ | 23 | -0.453 | -0.477 | +0.024 | -10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.2 | -0.22 | +6.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | DEN | 40 | -0.453 | -0.457 | +0.004 | -18.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 7 | -11.4 | -0.35 | +3.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | NYG | 46 | -0.488 | -0.424 | -0.063 | -22.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.0 | 8 | -17.7 | -0.42 | -7.5 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | CHI | 21 | -0.501 | -0.490 | -0.011 | -10.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.15 | -9.8 |
| Drake Maye | NE | NYJ | 10 | -0.517 | -0.541 | +0.024 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.8 | -0.00 | -23.0 |
| Tim Boyle | MIA | SEA | 14 | -0.569 | -0.539 | -0.030 | -8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.07 | -10.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.