Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR L | 7–40 | -23.0dog 10.0 | -0.47 → -0.53 | +0.27 → +0.23 | -0.76 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| @ WAS W | 40–7 | +23.0fav 10.0 | +0.27 → +0.19 | -0.47 → -0.41 | +0.59 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN W | 33–10 | +20.5fav 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.13 | -0.36 → -0.34 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NO L | 10–33 | -20.5dog 2.5 | -0.36 → -0.32 | +0.12 → +0.13 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 1 |
| PHI W | 28–3 | +22.0fav 3.0 | +0.15 → +0.12 | -0.43 → -0.35 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NYG L | 3–28 | -22.0dog 3.0 | -0.43 → -0.38 | +0.15 → +0.07 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 0 / 0 |
| BAL W | 41–31 | +5.5fav 4.5 | +0.47 → +0.48 | +0.12 → +0.06 | +0.42 | 99%raw 99% | 16% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 31–41 | -5.5dog 4.5 | +0.12 → +0.18 | +0.47 → +0.34 | -0.16 | 14%raw 1% | 0% – 84% | 2 / 1 |
| TEN L | 10–34 | -14.5dog 9.5 | -0.22 → -0.22 | +0.22 → +0.09 | -0.31 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 34–10 | +14.5fav 9.5 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.22 → -0.16 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 25% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| KC W | 28–18 | +12.5dog 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.17 → -0.25 | +0.26 | 95%raw 93% | 40% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| @ SF L | 18–28 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.17 → -0.16 | +0.02 → -0.01 | -0.15 | 16%raw 7% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 2 |
| SEA W | 34–14 | +23.0dog 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.19 | 89%raw 95% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ ATL L | 14–34 | -23.0fav 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.11 → +0.13 | -0.24 | 6%raw 5% | 0% – 59% | 3 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 15–37 | -25.0fav 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.16 → +0.19 | -0.22 | 8%raw 6% | 0% – 84% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 37–15 | +25.0dog 3.0 | +0.16 → +0.18 | -0.04 → +0.02 | +0.16 | 85%raw 94% | 16% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| HOU L | 22–24 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.13 | -0.08 → -0.14 | +0.01 | 53%raw 24% | 29% – 76% | 0 / 2 |
| @ GB W | 24–22 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.03 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.10 | 76%raw 76% | 24% – 71% | 2 / 0 |
| DET W | 31–29 | +3.0dog 1.0 | +0.13 → +0.19 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.10 | 76%raw 69% | 16% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIN L | 29–31 | -3.0fav 1.0 | +0.07 → +0.09 | +0.13 → +0.02 | +0.08 | 70%raw 31% | 9% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA L | 10–16 | -3.0dog 3.0 | -0.26 → -0.27 | -0.19 → -0.17 | -0.10 | 24%raw 30% | 1% – 83% | 2 / 1 |
| @ IND W | 16–10 | +3.0fav 3.0 | -0.19 → -0.18 | -0.26 → -0.27 | +0.08 | 72%raw 70% | 17% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN W | 21–14 | +1.5fav 5.5 | -0.19 → -0.17 | -0.17 → -0.04 | -0.13 | 19%raw 42% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 14–21 | -1.5dog 5.5 | -0.17 → -0.21 | -0.19 → -0.24 | +0.03 | 60%raw 58% | 0% – 60% | 2 / 0 |
| NE L | 16–32 | -9.5dog 6.5 | +0.09 → +0.03 | +0.23 → +0.27 | -0.24 | 6%raw 14% | 0% – 74% | 0 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 32–16 | +9.5fav 6.5 | +0.23 → +0.21 | +0.09 → +0.19 | +0.02 | 55%raw 86% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| LAC L | 15–17 | -3.0fav 1.0 | +0.05 → -0.00 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.02 | 44%raw 55% | 22% – 61% | 1 / 2 |
| @ ARI W | 17–15 | +3.0dog 1.0 | +0.04 → +0.07 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.01 | 48%raw 45% | 39% – 78% | 2 / 1 |
| LV L | 15–20 | +2.0dog 7.0 | -0.34 → -0.37 | -0.29 → -0.32 | -0.05 | 35%raw 33% | 2% – 62% | 4 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 20–15 | -2.0fav 7.0 | -0.29 → -0.29 | -0.34 → -0.25 | -0.04 | 39%raw 67% | 38% – 98% | 1 / 4 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | TB | 24 | +1.035 | +1.047 | -0.011 | +24.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.46 | +15.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 29 | +0.571 | +0.514 | +0.056 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | +0.59 | +15.5 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | CIN | 13 | +0.517 | +0.541 | -0.024 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.01 | -11.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NE | 21 | +0.514 | +0.533 | -0.019 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.33 | +4.6 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | CAR | 24 | +0.447 | +0.493 | -0.046 | +10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.04 | +15.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | TEN | 34 | +0.362 | +0.378 | -0.016 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.22 | +2.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | BAL | 50 | +0.340 | +0.245 | +0.095 | +17.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.01 | +3.6 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | NYJ | 30 | +0.334 | +0.292 | +0.042 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.12 | -1.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | ARI | 41 | +0.248 | +0.316 | -0.068 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.26 | +4.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ATL | 29 | +0.219 | +0.246 | -0.027 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.30 | +6.6 |
| Drake Maye | NE | JAX | 40 | +0.109 | +0.172 | -0.062 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.12 | +5.2 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | NO | 26 | +0.077 | +0.045 | +0.032 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -8.0 |
| Jordan Love | GB | HOU | 36 | +0.019 | -0.017 | +0.036 | +0.7 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.01 | +6.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | PIT | 41 | +0.017 | +0.002 | +0.015 | +0.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.05 | -5.4 |
| Tim Boyle | MIA | IND | 12 | +0.017 | +0.055 | -0.038 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.03 | -4.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LAC | 26 | +0.011 | -0.013 | +0.024 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -17.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | CIN | 19 | -0.007 | +0.017 | -0.024 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.13 | +15.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 28 | -0.014 | -0.063 | +0.049 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.8 | -0.08 | -1.1 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | DET | 32 | -0.021 | -0.024 | +0.003 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -3.9 | -0.25 | +13.5 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | BUF | 42 | -0.103 | -0.087 | -0.016 | -4.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.14 | -1.9 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | LA | 10 | -0.135 | -0.113 | -0.022 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +4.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 18 | -0.168 | -0.115 | -0.053 | -3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.0 | -0.04 | +9.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | SF | 29 | -0.174 | -0.197 | +0.024 | -5.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.09 | -2.5 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | MIA | 24 | -0.220 | -0.222 | +0.002 | -5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -18.7 |
| Tyler Huntley | MIA | IND | 15 | -0.232 | -0.194 | -0.038 | -3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.05 | -5.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | SEA | 38 | -0.273 | -0.248 | -0.025 | -10.4 | 2 / 1 | -18.9 | 3 | -11.6 | +0.03 | +1.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | LV | 24 | -0.299 | -0.302 | +0.003 | -7.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.6 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.11 | -9.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | KC | 33 | -0.315 | -0.324 | +0.009 | -10.4 | 3 / 0 | -13.4 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.36 | -9.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | GB | 25 | -0.434 | -0.455 | +0.021 | -10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.3 | -0.41 | -14.8 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | PHI | 27 | -0.537 | -0.564 | +0.027 | -14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -12.9 | -0.38 | +4.1 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | LA | 36 | -0.665 | -0.643 | -0.022 | -23.9 | 3 / 1 | -18.9 | 2 | -9.6 | -0.57 | -14.3 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | DEN | 41 | -0.682 | -0.685 | +0.003 | -28.0 | 0 / 2 | -15.6 | 6 | -20.6 | -0.27 | -0.1 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | CIN | 25 | -0.797 | -0.773 | -0.024 | -19.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.39 | -16.4 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | WAS | 18 | -0.982 | -0.915 | -0.068 | -17.7 | 2 / 0 | -14.7 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.30 | -0.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.