Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA L | 10–41 | -32.0fav 1.0 | -0.26 → -0.33 | +0.35 → +0.34 | -0.66 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 52% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI W | 41–10 | +32.0dog 1.0 | +0.35 → +0.34 | -0.26 → -0.29 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 48% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NO W | 44–19 | +31.5dog 6.5 | +0.46 → +0.45 | -0.17 → -0.15 | +0.59 | 100%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DAL L | 19–44 | -31.5fav 6.5 | -0.17 → -0.18 | +0.46 → +0.51 | -0.68 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 2 / 1 |
| BUF W | 31–10 | +23.5dog 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.25 | -0.27 → -0.28 | +0.53 | 100%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ MIA L | 10–31 | -23.5fav 2.5 | -0.27 → -0.26 | +0.23 → +0.10 | -0.36 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 0 |
| LAC W | 26–3 | +18.0fav 5.0 | +0.11 → +0.02 | -0.49 → -0.42 | +0.45 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 3–26 | -18.0dog 5.0 | -0.49 → -0.48 | +0.11 → +0.14 | -0.61 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 2 |
| ATL W | 22–21 | +6.5dog 5.5 | +0.17 → +0.23 | +0.11 → +0.03 | +0.21 | 91%raw 71% | 4% – 85% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 21–22 | -6.5fav 5.5 | +0.11 → +0.09 | +0.17 → +0.19 | -0.10 | 26%raw 29% | 15% – 96% | 1 / 0 |
| PIT W | 13–6 | +4.0fav 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.08 | -0.24 → -0.25 | +0.17 | 87%raw 84% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 6–13 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.24 | -0.12 → -0.09 | -0.14 | 17%raw 16% | 1% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| CIN L | 25–26 | +5.5dog 6.5 | +0.05 → +0.05 | -0.07 → -0.11 | +0.16 | 86%raw 83% | 33% – 75% | 1 / 3 |
| @ KC W | 26–25 | -5.5fav 6.5 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.05 → +0.00 | -0.11 | 23%raw 17% | 25% – 67% | 3 / 1 |
| CHI L | 13–19 | +0.0dog 6.0 | -0.31 → -0.27 | -0.15 → -0.12 | -0.15 | 16%raw 10% | 1% – 54% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU W | 19–13 | +0.0fav 6.0 | -0.15 → -0.15 | -0.31 → -0.27 | +0.12 | 79%raw 90% | 46% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| TB W | 20–16 | +11.5dog 7.5 | -0.10 → -0.08 | -0.07 → -0.19 | +0.11 | 76%raw 40% | 36% – 96% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DET L | 16–20 | -11.5fav 7.5 | -0.07 → -0.08 | -0.10 → -0.17 | +0.09 | 74%raw 60% | 4% – 64% | 2 / 1 |
| SF L | 17–23 | -10.5fav 4.5 | -0.07 → -0.03 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.01 | 52%raw 39% | 1% – 50% | 2 / 2 |
| @ MIN W | 23–17 | +10.5dog 4.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | -0.07 → -0.15 | +0.10 | 76%raw 61% | 50% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| LV W | 26–23 | +12.0dog 9.0 | -0.17 → -0.12 | -0.01 → -0.16 | +0.04 | 61%raw 11% | 11% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BAL L | 23–26 | -12.0fav 9.0 | -0.01 → -0.01 | -0.17 → -0.07 | +0.06 | 67%raw 89% | 9% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| IND L | 10–16 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.07 | -0.00 → -0.07 | +0.00 | 50%raw 22% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 16–10 | +9.0dog 3.0 | -0.00 → -0.01 | -0.10 → -0.06 | +0.06 | 66%raw 78% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| NYJ W | 24–17 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.09 → -0.02 | +0.04 | 61%raw 85% | 16% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ TEN L | 17–24 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.07 | +0.04 → +0.10 | -0.18 | 12%raw 15% | 1% – 84% | 2 / 0 |
| SEA W | 23–20 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.02 → -0.00 | +0.06 → +0.15 | -0.16 | 15%raw 39% | 14% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NE L | 20–23 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.01 | 53%raw 61% | 4% – 86% | 0 / 0 |
| NYG L | 18–21 | -1.5dog 1.5 | +0.14 → +0.10 | +0.16 → +0.11 | -0.01 | 47%raw 44% | 12% – 69% | 1 / 0 |
| @ WAS W | 21–18 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.16 → +0.13 | +0.14 → +0.24 | -0.11 | 23%raw 56% | 31% – 88% | 0 / 1 |
| CLE W | 18–13 | +8.0dog 3.0 | +0.02 → -0.05 | -0.03 → -0.00 | -0.05 | 38%raw 68% | 43% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| @ JAX L | 13–18 | -8.0fav 3.0 | -0.03 → -0.01 | +0.02 → +0.16 | -0.16 | 14%raw 32% | 4% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 22 | +0.833 | +0.823 | +0.010 | +18.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.12 | +17.5 |
| Derek Carr | NO | DAL | 17 | +0.820 | +0.825 | -0.005 | +13.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.51 | +3.1 |
| Malik Willis | GB | IND | 14 | +0.620 | +0.642 | -0.022 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +20.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 19 | +0.606 | +0.587 | +0.019 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.24 | +4.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | PHI | 31 | +0.338 | +0.293 | +0.045 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.44 | +2.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | WAS | 31 | +0.177 | +0.220 | -0.043 | +5.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.36 | -3.1 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NE | 46 | +0.166 | +0.195 | -0.029 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | +0.53 | +8.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | KC | 39 | +0.118 | +0.101 | +0.017 | +4.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.8 | 3 | -8.9 | -0.04 | +4.9 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | DEN | 22 | +0.117 | +0.100 | +0.017 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.11 | +7.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | NYG | 34 | +0.089 | +0.138 | -0.050 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.9 | +0.22 | +6.4 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | MIN | 42 | +0.057 | +0.013 | +0.043 | +2.4 | 1 / 1 | -9.2 | 6 | -11.3 | -0.06 | +8.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | CHI | 39 | +0.042 | +0.041 | +0.001 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.04 | -3.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | LV | 34 | +0.040 | +0.029 | +0.012 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.03 | -0.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | BAL | 43 | +0.034 | -0.056 | +0.090 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 5 | -8.8 | -0.13 | +15.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | ATL | 31 | +0.031 | +0.058 | -0.027 | +1.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.30 | +13.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | TEN | 32 | +0.028 | +0.052 | -0.024 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.08 | -8.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CAR | 21 | +0.013 | +0.068 | -0.055 | +0.3 | 1 / 1 | -9.0 | 1 | -4.5 | +0.03 | +7.7 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | SF | 28 | -0.007 | -0.031 | +0.024 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.02 | +0.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | SEA | 30 | -0.024 | -0.006 | -0.019 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.20 | -4.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | JAX | 36 | -0.032 | +0.035 | -0.066 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.17 | -0.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CLE | 33 | -0.133 | -0.182 | +0.049 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.40 | -9.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | DET | 24 | -0.143 | -0.143 | +0.000 | -3.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 5 | -9.9 | -0.18 | -7.9 |
| Will Levis | TEN | NYJ | 32 | -0.170 | -0.201 | +0.032 | -5.4 | 1 / 1 | -6.6 | 4 | -8.2 | -0.16 | +7.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NO | 41 | -0.184 | -0.211 | +0.026 | -7.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.7 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.07 | +1.2 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | GB | 34 | -0.210 | -0.236 | +0.026 | -7.1 | 3 / 0 | -8.9 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.25 | -8.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | PIT | 37 | -0.224 | -0.233 | +0.009 | -8.3 | 2 / 0 | -6.1 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.33 | -4.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | TB | 54 | -0.295 | -0.253 | -0.042 | -15.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.91 | -4.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CIN | 28 | -0.370 | -0.345 | -0.025 | -10.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.30 | +4.6 |
| Skylar Thompson | MIA | BUF | 15 | -0.405 | -0.382 | -0.023 | -6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.5 | -0.02 | -4.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 26 | -0.433 | -0.410 | -0.023 | -11.3 | 3 / 0 | -15.7 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.19 | +3.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 32 | -0.433 | -0.349 | -0.085 | -13.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 5 | -13.3 | -0.16 | +1.4 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | HOU | 44 | -0.462 | -0.490 | +0.028 | -20.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 7 | -11.7 | -0.43 | -1.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | LAC | 28 | -0.786 | -0.788 | +0.002 | -22.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.32 | -6.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.