Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX L | 6–52 | -32.0dog 14.0 | -0.37 → -0.36 | +0.57 → +0.47 | -0.83 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 49% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 52–6 | +32.0fav 14.0 | +0.57 → +0.52 | -0.37 → -0.35 | +0.87 | 100%raw 100% | 51% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL L | 6–38 | -30.0dog 2.0 | -0.27 → -0.23 | +0.38 → +0.39 | -0.63 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 38–6 | +30.0fav 2.0 | +0.38 → +0.37 | -0.27 → -0.27 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU W | 34–10 | +16.5fav 7.5 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.31 → -0.28 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DAL L | 10–34 | -16.5dog 7.5 | -0.31 → -0.26 | +0.19 → +0.23 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 2 / 1 |
| WAS L | 18–26 | -3.5dog 4.5 | -0.14 → -0.08 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.21 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 79% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 26–18 | +3.5fav 4.5 | +0.20 → +0.16 | -0.14 → -0.19 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 21% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| LA W | 28–22 | +2.0fav 4.0 | +0.40 → +0.39 | +0.10 → +0.20 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 21% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 22–28 | -2.0dog 4.0 | +0.10 → +0.08 | +0.40 → +0.39 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 1% – 79% | 2 / 0 |
| CLE L | 14–35 | -22.0fav 1.0 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.31 → +0.35 | -0.32 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 51% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NO W | 35–14 | +22.0dog 1.0 | +0.31 → +0.35 | +0.03 → +0.17 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 49% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| KC L | 21–30 | -6.5dog 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.13 | +0.10 → -0.03 | +0.16 | 86%raw 54% | 0% – 46% | 2 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 30–21 | +6.5fav 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.11 | +0.12 → +0.08 | +0.03 | 58%raw 46% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| BAL L | 16–18 | -5.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.08 | -0.25 → -0.23 | +0.15 | 84%raw 90% | 4% – 48% | 3 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 18–16 | +5.0dog 3.0 | -0.25 → -0.21 | -0.09 → -0.24 | +0.03 | 59%raw 10% | 52% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| LV L | 19–34 | -7.0dog 8.0 | +0.10 → +0.12 | +0.31 → +0.32 | -0.21 | 9%raw 5% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 34–19 | +7.0fav 8.0 | +0.31 → +0.33 | +0.10 → +0.20 | +0.13 | 81%raw 95% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| IND W | 28–27 | +5.0dog 4.0 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.10 → -0.04 | +0.10 | 76%raw 88% | 15% – 89% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYJ L | 27–28 | -5.0fav 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.19 | 10%raw 12% | 11% – 85% | 0 / 1 |
| SEA W | 20–17 | +9.0dog 6.0 | +0.00 → -0.00 | +0.10 → +0.03 | -0.03 | 41%raw 21% | 16% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF L | 17–20 | -9.0fav 6.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.00 → +0.01 | +0.08 | 71%raw 79% | 11% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN L | 27–34 | -6.0dog 1.0 | +0.10 → +0.14 | +0.05 → +0.07 | +0.07 | 67%raw 68% | 3% – 68% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 34–27 | +6.0fav 1.0 | +0.05 → +0.02 | +0.10 → +0.06 | -0.05 | 37%raw 32% | 32% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
| GB W | 20–19 | -5.0fav 6.0 | +0.30 → +0.31 | +0.22 → +0.28 | +0.03 | 59%raw 74% | 14% – 73% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CHI L | 19–20 | +5.0dog 6.0 | +0.22 → +0.26 | +0.30 → +0.24 | +0.02 | 55%raw 26% | 27% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| MIN W | 23–13 | +4.0fav 6.0 | -0.05 → -0.07 | -0.14 → -0.08 | +0.00 | 50%raw 77% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 13–23 | -4.0dog 6.0 | -0.14 → -0.10 | -0.05 → -0.05 | -0.05 | 36%raw 23% | 0% – 68% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | JAX | 29 | +1.095 | +1.137 | -0.042 | +31.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +18.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 18 | +0.741 | +0.726 | +0.015 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.54 | +12.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | LV | 37 | +0.691 | +0.663 | +0.027 | +25.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.55 | +10.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | ATL | 34 | +0.652 | +0.668 | -0.017 | +22.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.38 | +13.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NE | 27 | +0.574 | +0.593 | -0.019 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +10.0 |
| Derek Carr | NO | CLE | 28 | +0.497 | +0.438 | +0.059 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.19 | +7.9 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | NYJ | 33 | +0.305 | +0.263 | +0.041 | +10.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -8.5 | +0.35 | +7.3 |
| Drake Maye | NE | LA | 42 | +0.262 | +0.264 | -0.002 | +11.0 | 1 / 1 | -6.7 | 3 | -7.1 | +0.07 | +8.9 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | NO | 50 | +0.226 | +0.190 | +0.037 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.23 | +1.1 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | TEN | 34 | +0.200 | +0.219 | -0.019 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.28 | +3.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 40 | +0.169 | +0.149 | +0.020 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +4.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | DAL | 35 | +0.163 | +0.183 | -0.021 | +5.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.26 | -5.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 35 | +0.149 | +0.160 | -0.011 | +5.2 | 2 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.01 | +9.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | LAC | 53 | +0.146 | +0.121 | +0.024 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.16 | -2.5 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | GB | 35 | +0.126 | +0.091 | +0.035 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.32 | +6.7 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | MIA | 46 | +0.116 | +0.107 | +0.009 | +5.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.10 | +2.0 |
| Will Levis | TEN | MIN | 36 | +0.097 | +0.052 | +0.045 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -1.5 | 5 | -8.3 | +0.04 | -4.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | PHI | 36 | +0.078 | +0.039 | +0.040 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.06 | -4.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CIN | 37 | +0.044 | +0.062 | -0.018 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.13 | -11.7 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 30 | +0.010 | +0.026 | -0.016 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.18 | +2.0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | SF | 36 | +0.005 | -0.021 | +0.026 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -6.6 | +0.14 | +16.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 30 | -0.016 | +0.029 | -0.045 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.04 | +2.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | IND | 32 | -0.051 | -0.014 | -0.037 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.39 | +3.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 36 | -0.054 | -0.068 | +0.014 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -1.5 | -0.48 | -10.7 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | HOU | 60 | -0.198 | -0.228 | +0.030 | -11.9 | 1 / 1 | -12.8 | 5 | -17.8 | -0.18 | -12.1 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | BAL | 40 | -0.206 | -0.290 | +0.084 | -8.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.11 | +1.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | DEN | 29 | -0.235 | -0.245 | +0.011 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.01 | -1.0 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | DET | 30 | -0.404 | -0.396 | -0.009 | -12.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -4.0 | -0.00 | -3.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.