Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI L | 13–38 | -22.0dog 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.15 | +0.41 → +0.34 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 38–13 | +22.0fav 3.0 | +0.41 → +0.42 | -0.14 → -0.09 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| ATL L | 21–42 | -15.0dog 6.0 | +0.09 → +0.14 | +0.46 → +0.48 | -0.34 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 71% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 42–21 | +15.0fav 6.0 | +0.46 → +0.45 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.36 | 98%raw 99% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| SEA W | 30–18 | +15.0dog 3.0 | +0.16 → +0.11 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.21 | 91%raw 96% | 30% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 18–30 | -15.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.10 | +0.16 → +0.17 | -0.27 | 5%raw 4% | 1% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| GB L | 31–34 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.16 | +0.06 → -0.05 | +0.21 | 91%raw 72% | 13% – 64% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 34–31 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.10 | +0.13 → +0.07 | +0.02 | 57%raw 28% | 36% – 87% | 1 / 1 |
| LV L | 13–28 | -8.0dog 7.0 | -0.15 → -0.16 | +0.12 → +0.06 | -0.22 | 8%raw 2% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 3 |
| @ TB W | 28–13 | +8.0fav 7.0 | +0.12 → +0.13 | -0.15 → -0.05 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 49% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| BUF L | 42–44 | -5.5fav 3.5 | +0.45 → +0.44 | +0.29 → +0.27 | +0.17 | 87%raw 90% | 2% – 48% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 44–42 | +5.5dog 3.5 | +0.29 → +0.30 | +0.45 → +0.32 | -0.02 | 45%raw 10% | 52% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN W | 27–20 | +2.0fav 5.0 | +0.16 → +0.13 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.12 | 79%raw 91% | 24% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 20–27 | -2.0dog 5.0 | -0.02 → -0.05 | +0.16 → +0.12 | -0.17 | 13%raw 9% | 1% – 76% | 1 / 1 |
| LAC L | 17–19 | +3.0dog 5.0 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.02 → -0.02 | +0.12 | 78%raw 72% | 9% – 60% | 0 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 19–17 | -3.0fav 5.0 | +0.02 → +0.05 | +0.09 → +0.11 | -0.07 | 33%raw 28% | 40% – 91% | 0 / 0 |
| JAX W | 10–6 | +7.0dog 3.0 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.16 → -0.09 | +0.11 | 76%raw 93% | 21% – 98% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 6–10 | -7.0fav 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.23 | +0.03 → +0.06 | -0.30 | 3%raw 7% | 2% – 79% | 0 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 26–32 | +0.5dog 6.5 | +0.23 → +0.26 | +0.22 → +0.22 | +0.03 | 59%raw 54% | 9% – 89% | 0 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 32–26 | -0.5fav 6.5 | +0.22 → +0.24 | +0.23 → +0.31 | -0.06 | 33%raw 46% | 11% – 91% | 0 / 0 |
| CAR L | 16–22 | +8.0dog 14.0 | +0.02 → +0.08 | +0.13 → +0.05 | +0.03 | 58%raw 19% | 1% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 22–16 | -8.0fav 14.0 | +0.13 → +0.04 | +0.02 → +0.10 | -0.06 | 33%raw 81% | 42% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| CLE L | 14–27 | -7.0dog 6.0 | -0.16 → -0.15 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.08 | 30%raw 32% | 0% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 27–14 | +7.0fav 6.0 | -0.11 → -0.08 | -0.16 → -0.03 | -0.05 | 37%raw 68% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| NO W | 14–11 | -2.5fav 5.5 | -0.08 → -0.12 | -0.15 → -0.06 | -0.06 | 34%raw 71% | 30% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 11–14 | +2.5dog 5.5 | -0.15 → -0.15 | -0.08 → -0.06 | -0.10 | 25%raw 29% | 5% – 70% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | CHI | 26 | +0.895 | +0.876 | +0.018 | +23.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.31 | +16.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | BUF | 30 | +0.823 | +0.819 | +0.004 | +24.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.59 | +7.8 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | ATL | 32 | +0.721 | +0.738 | -0.016 | +23.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.6 | +0.74 | +13.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 47 | +0.490 | +0.444 | +0.046 | +23.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +1.02 | +3.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LA | 37 | +0.460 | +0.455 | +0.005 | +17.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -5.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | MIA | 42 | +0.367 | +0.352 | +0.015 | +15.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.46 | +2.2 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 21 | +0.329 | +0.319 | +0.010 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.37 | +2.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 42 | +0.319 | +0.282 | +0.037 | +13.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.57 | +5.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 33 | +0.266 | +0.247 | +0.019 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.20 | +8.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | DAL | 46 | +0.210 | +0.230 | -0.020 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.51 | +8.0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | 30 | +0.169 | +0.239 | -0.070 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +10.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | LV | 33 | +0.158 | +0.143 | +0.014 | +5.2 | 2 / 1 | -12.7 | 4 | -8.6 | -0.01 | -2.3 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | TEN | 32 | +0.145 | +0.167 | -0.022 | +4.6 | 2 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.23 | +7.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | PHI | 35 | +0.121 | +0.080 | +0.042 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.02 | -2.4 |
| Derek Carr | NO | NYG | 32 | +0.080 | +0.133 | -0.053 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.15 | -0.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | MIN | 38 | +0.063 | +0.019 | +0.044 | +2.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.25 | -7.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 40 | +0.038 | +0.016 | +0.022 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.07 | +0.1 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | CLE | 27 | +0.030 | -0.021 | +0.050 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.18 | -1.7 |
| Desmond Ridder | LV | TB | 19 | +0.010 | +0.052 | -0.042 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.00 | -2.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CAR | 25 | -0.128 | -0.072 | -0.056 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.8 | +0.03 | +4.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 40 | -0.133 | -0.111 | -0.022 | -5.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.21 | -7.2 |
| Drew Lock | NYG | NO | 51 | -0.183 | -0.213 | +0.030 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -1.5 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.74 | -18.1 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | CIN | 34 | -0.199 | -0.175 | -0.023 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.24 | -15.9 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | PIT | 44 | -0.218 | -0.228 | +0.010 | -9.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.34 | +0.4 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | SF | 31 | -0.224 | -0.243 | +0.019 | -6.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 7 | -14.6 | -0.11 | +3.6 |
| Will Levis | TEN | JAX | 34 | -0.391 | -0.316 | -0.075 | -13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.87 | -9.2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | TB | 20 | -0.421 | -0.379 | -0.042 | -8.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.27 | -3.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.