Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN L | 10–41 | -22.0dog 9.0 | -0.16 → -0.11 | +0.42 → +0.28 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 41–10 | +22.0fav 9.0 | +0.42 → +0.48 | -0.16 → -0.16 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA L | 27–30 | +3.5dog 6.5 | +0.31 → +0.32 | +0.15 → +0.02 | +0.31 | 97%raw 89% | 11% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 30–27 | -3.5fav 6.5 | +0.15 → +0.17 | +0.31 → +0.31 | -0.14 | 17%raw 11% | 25% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| LV L | 24–41 | -9.0dog 8.0 | -0.28 → -0.33 | +0.09 → +0.05 | -0.37 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 41–24 | +9.0fav 8.0 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.28 → -0.19 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| DET W | 24–14 | +7.5fav 2.5 | +0.13 → +0.16 | -0.03 → -0.10 | +0.26 | 95%raw 90% | 34% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ GB L | 14–24 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.03 → -0.01 | +0.13 → +0.01 | -0.03 | 42%raw 10% | 0% – 66% | 1 / 0 |
| IND L | 13–21 | -1.5dog 6.5 | -0.33 → -0.29 | -0.04 → -0.04 | -0.25 | 6%raw 2% | 0% – 77% | 2 / 3 |
| @ MIN W | 21–13 | +1.5fav 6.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | -0.33 → -0.30 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 23% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| LAC W | 27–10 | +15.0fav 2.0 | +0.03 → +0.06 | -0.27 → -0.14 | +0.21 | 91%raw 98% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CLE L | 10–27 | -15.0dog 2.0 | -0.27 → -0.25 | +0.03 → +0.05 | -0.30 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 62% | 3 / 0 |
| LA W | 26–20 | +4.5fav 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.25 → -0.25 | +0.20 | 91%raw 95% | 10% – 95% | 1 / 3 |
| @ SEA L | 20–26 | -4.5dog 1.5 | -0.25 → -0.28 | -0.03 → -0.05 | -0.23 | 7%raw 5% | 5% – 90% | 3 / 1 |
| JAX L | 23–28 | +2.5dog 7.5 | -0.23 → -0.18 | +0.06 → -0.02 | -0.16 | 14%raw 2% | 1% – 51% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 28–23 | -2.5fav 7.5 | +0.06 → -0.01 | -0.23 → -0.20 | +0.19 | 90%raw 98% | 49% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| HOU L | 13–21 | -5.5dog 2.5 | -0.08 → -0.06 | +0.05 → +0.11 | -0.17 | 12%raw 16% | 0% – 78% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 21–13 | +5.5fav 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.08 → -0.04 | +0.14 | 83%raw 84% | 22% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| CHI L | 9–29 | -18.5dog 1.5 | -0.23 → -0.29 | -0.07 → -0.09 | -0.20 | 10%raw 10% | 0% – 58% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI W | 29–9 | +18.5fav 1.5 | -0.07 → -0.07 | -0.23 → -0.18 | +0.11 | 78%raw 90% | 42% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| DAL L | 21–27 | -3.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.04 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.18 | 12%raw 12% | 1% – 62% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 27–21 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.10 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.09 | 74%raw 88% | 38% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| TB L | 24–30 | +3.0dog 9.0 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.14 → +0.11 | +0.09 | 74%raw 66% | 6% – 75% | 0 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 30–24 | -3.0fav 9.0 | +0.14 → +0.14 | +0.19 → +0.13 | +0.01 | 53%raw 34% | 25% – 94% | 1 / 0 |
| WAS W | 27–22 | +0.5fav 4.5 | +0.31 → +0.29 | +0.14 → +0.24 | +0.05 | 63%raw 91% | 35% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 22–27 | -0.5dog 4.5 | +0.14 → +0.10 | +0.31 → +0.27 | -0.17 | 13%raw 9% | 1% – 65% | 1 / 0 |
| NE L | 17–20 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.01 → +0.08 | -0.19 | 10%raw 20% | 2% – 58% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 20–17 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → -0.01 | -0.09 → +0.00 | -0.02 | 45%raw 80% | 42% – 98% | 1 / 3 |
| NO L | 22–23 | -8.0fav 7.0 | +0.14 → +0.06 | +0.01 → +0.09 | -0.04 | 39%raw 86% | 8% – 84% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CAR W | 23–22 | +8.0dog 7.0 | +0.01 → +0.01 | +0.14 → +0.18 | -0.16 | 14%raw 14% | 16% – 92% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DEN | 20 | +1.004 | +0.967 | +0.037 | +20.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.3 | +0.25 | +16.5 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 29 | +0.606 | +0.605 | +0.001 | +17.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.45 | +21.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | NYG | 22 | +0.405 | +0.446 | -0.041 | +8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +11.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | TB | 48 | +0.306 | +0.336 | -0.030 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.76 | +12.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | DAL | 26 | +0.305 | +0.323 | -0.019 | +7.9 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 2 | -5.6 | +0.38 | +11.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | HOU | 34 | +0.296 | +0.253 | +0.043 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.47 | -1.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 23 | +0.294 | +0.258 | +0.036 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.18 | +18.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | KC | 33 | +0.251 | +0.231 | +0.020 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.26 | +3.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 40 | +0.239 | +0.227 | +0.012 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.25 | -2.3 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | LV | 40 | +0.191 | +0.175 | +0.015 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.6 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.33 | +6.0 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | NE | 34 | +0.123 | +0.152 | -0.029 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.44 | +9.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CLE | 33 | +0.091 | +0.040 | +0.051 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -6.0 | +0.17 | +8.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | JAX | 28 | +0.089 | +0.149 | -0.060 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.03 | +12.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 44 | +0.071 | +0.088 | -0.017 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.58 | -3.0 |
| Derek Carr | NO | CAR | 33 | +0.047 | +0.103 | -0.056 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.07 | +0.3 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | CIN | 18 | +0.028 | +0.053 | -0.025 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | +1.0 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | ATL | 26 | +0.021 | +0.055 | -0.034 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -15.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | NO | 28 | +0.013 | -0.020 | +0.033 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.07 | +1.7 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CHI | 23 | -0.059 | -0.058 | -0.001 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.14 | -0.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 40 | -0.078 | -0.077 | -0.001 | -3.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.31 | -0.2 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | WAS | 30 | -0.114 | -0.066 | -0.048 | -3.4 | 0 / 1 | -8.1 | 2 | -9.8 | -0.18 | +9.0 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 41 | -0.145 | -0.133 | -0.012 | -6.0 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 7 | -9.3 | -0.14 | +0.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | ATL | 26 | -0.166 | -0.132 | -0.034 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.01 | +6.6 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | IND | 38 | -0.200 | -0.163 | -0.037 | -7.6 | 2 / 1 | -20.9 | 4 | -14.4 | -0.11 | +20.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | PHI | 35 | -0.217 | -0.251 | +0.035 | -7.6 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 2 | -4.7 | -0.54 | -9.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | BAL | 37 | -0.220 | -0.309 | +0.090 | -8.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -7.9 | -0.12 | -4.3 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | MIN | 30 | -0.256 | -0.293 | +0.037 | -7.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -3.1 | -0.18 | -10.5 |
| Drake Maye | NE | TEN | 44 | -0.277 | -0.251 | -0.026 | -12.2 | 2 / 1 | -11.3 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.57 | +5.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | ARI | 47 | -0.315 | -0.232 | -0.082 | -14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -11.0 | -0.06 | -4.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | NYJ | 38 | -0.323 | -0.354 | +0.031 | -12.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 8 | -16.3 | -0.45 | -15.0 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | LAC | 52 | -0.390 | -0.403 | +0.013 | -20.3 | 3 / 0 | -15.1 | 6 | -6.5 | -0.36 | -8.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | LV | CIN | 20 | -0.552 | -0.527 | -0.025 | -11.0 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 4 | -11.4 | -0.08 | +2.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.