Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF L | 10–38 | -21.5dog 6.5 | -0.42 → -0.40 | +0.13 → +0.06 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 38–10 | +21.5fav 6.5 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.42 → -0.51 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| TB W | 30–7 | +16.5fav 6.5 | +0.26 → +0.24 | -0.25 → -0.17 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 7–30 | -16.5dog 6.5 | -0.25 → -0.27 | +0.26 → +0.20 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| BAL W | 30–23 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.35 → +0.39 | +0.01 → +0.03 | +0.36 | 98%raw 99% | 19% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LAC L | 23–30 | -4.0dog 3.0 | +0.01 → +0.06 | +0.35 → +0.21 | -0.15 | 16%raw 1% | 0% – 81% | 0 / 0 |
| PHI W | 37–20 | +14.0fav 3.0 | +0.34 → +0.33 | -0.00 → -0.02 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LA L | 20–37 | -14.0dog 3.0 | -0.00 → +0.05 | +0.34 → +0.27 | -0.21 | 8%raw 1% | 0% – 67% | 1 / 0 |
| DET W | 24–6 | +11.0fav 7.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | -0.14 → -0.11 | +0.27 | 95%raw 98% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ IND L | 6–24 | -11.0dog 7.0 | -0.14 → -0.13 | +0.15 → +0.04 | -0.17 | 13%raw 2% | 0% – 70% | 0 / 0 |
| DEN W | 29–19 | +3.5fav 6.5 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.21 → -0.12 | +0.16 | 86%raw 97% | 27% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LV L | 19–29 | -3.5dog 6.5 | -0.21 → -0.17 | +0.04 → +0.05 | -0.22 | 8%raw 3% | 3% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| TEN W | 32–27 | +13.0dog 8.0 | -0.10 → -0.05 | -0.23 → -0.20 | +0.15 | 85%raw 86% | 24% – 98% | 2 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 27–32 | -13.0fav 8.0 | -0.23 → -0.25 | -0.10 → -0.03 | -0.23 | 7%raw 14% | 2% – 76% | 2 / 2 |
| NE L | 15–34 | -11.5dog 7.5 | -0.22 → -0.21 | +0.00 → +0.00 | -0.21 | 9%raw 5% | 0% – 56% | 2 / 1 |
| @ MIA W | 34–15 | +11.5fav 7.5 | +0.00 → -0.02 | -0.22 → -0.13 | +0.11 | 76%raw 95% | 44% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| ARI L | 6–16 | -11.0fav 1.0 | -0.18 → -0.20 | -0.07 → -0.06 | -0.15 | 16%raw 16% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 16–6 | +11.0dog 1.0 | -0.07 → -0.12 | -0.18 → -0.21 | +0.09 | 73%raw 84% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| MIN W | 30–27 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.06 → +0.11 | -0.04 | 40%raw 54% | 29% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CHI L | 27–30 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.11 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.03 | 58%raw 46% | 1% – 71% | 0 / 1 |
| PIT L | 19–24 | -8.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.00 → +0.14 | -0.13 | 18%raw 41% | 7% – 65% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CLE W | 24–19 | +8.5dog 3.5 | +0.00 → +0.02 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.01 | 53%raw 59% | 35% – 93% | 3 / 1 |
| DAL W | 34–26 | +18.5dog 10.5 | -0.06 → -0.10 | -0.05 → -0.10 | -0.00 | 49%raw 47% | 22% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| @ WAS L | 26–34 | -18.5fav 10.5 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.06 → -0.03 | -0.05 | 36%raw 53% | 1% – 78% | 3 / 1 |
| KC W | 30–27 | -8.0fav 11.0 | +0.28 → +0.20 | +0.18 → +0.27 | -0.07 | 32%raw 80% | 43% – 95% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CAR L | 27–30 | +8.0dog 11.0 | +0.18 → +0.19 | +0.28 → +0.25 | -0.06 | 33%raw 20% | 5% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NYG | 30 | +0.520 | +0.557 | -0.038 | +15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | LAC | 24 | +0.367 | +0.338 | +0.029 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.41 | +10.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LA | 23 | +0.325 | +0.325 | +0.000 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.29 | +9.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | SF | 25 | +0.295 | +0.265 | +0.029 | +7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.03 | -2.2 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | CLE | 33 | +0.293 | +0.237 | +0.056 | +9.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 4 | -9.1 | +0.10 | +26.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 42 | +0.285 | +0.311 | -0.026 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.21 | +3.4 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | CHI | 37 | +0.283 | +0.275 | +0.008 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.78 | +6.8 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | WAS | 33 | +0.217 | +0.259 | -0.042 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.22 | +3.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LV | 43 | +0.210 | +0.194 | +0.016 | +9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.30 | -7.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | IND | 39 | +0.208 | +0.239 | -0.031 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.28 | +7.1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | KC | 37 | +0.191 | +0.172 | +0.019 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.01 | +3.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CAR | 42 | +0.168 | +0.218 | -0.050 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.6 | +0.41 | +7.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | PHI | 42 | +0.140 | +0.099 | +0.042 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.2 | -0.10 | -0.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | MIN | 51 | +0.124 | +0.077 | +0.047 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.06 | +1.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | BAL | 40 | +0.045 | -0.046 | +0.091 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.13 | -8.0 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | PIT | 30 | -0.008 | -0.025 | +0.018 | -0.2 | 1 / 1 | -7.4 | 1 | -4.6 | -0.11 | +2.5 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | ARI | 36 | -0.016 | +0.059 | -0.075 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 5 | -10.7 | +0.11 | +8.9 |
| Will Levis | TEN | HOU | 32 | -0.025 | -0.062 | +0.037 | -0.8 | 1 / 0 | -8.5 | 8 | -9.2 | -0.20 | +4.9 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | DET | 28 | -0.095 | -0.093 | -0.002 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | -14.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | DAL | 41 | -0.143 | -0.116 | -0.027 | -5.9 | 2 / 0 | -6.4 | 4 | -3.4 | -0.18 | +6.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | 42 | -0.149 | -0.126 | -0.023 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -8.4 | 5 | -6.7 | -0.31 | +3.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | TEN | 37 | -0.200 | -0.172 | -0.028 | -7.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.20 | -4.7 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | TB | 35 | -0.220 | -0.179 | -0.041 | -7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.13 | +2.8 |
| Drake Maye | NE | MIA | 42 | -0.270 | -0.270 | -0.000 | -11.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 4 | -11.1 | -0.02 | -5.9 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | DEN | 44 | -0.290 | -0.299 | +0.009 | -12.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 3 | -2.9 | -0.34 | -5.6 |
| Brandon Allen | SF | GB | 31 | -0.323 | -0.344 | +0.021 | -10.0 | 1 / 1 | -11.4 | 2 | -7.0 | -0.10 | -3.9 |
| Desmond Ridder | LV | DEN | 12 | -0.434 | -0.443 | +0.009 | -5.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 2 | -9.2 | -0.11 | -17.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.