Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR L | 10–36 | -22.0dog 4.0 | -0.26 → -0.27 | +0.23 → +0.29 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 62% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 36–10 | +22.0fav 4.0 | +0.23 → +0.15 | -0.26 → -0.19 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| CLE L | 13–34 | -18.0dog 3.0 | -0.31 → -0.36 | +0.08 → +0.04 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 1 / 2 |
| @ WAS W | 34–13 | +18.0fav 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.12 | -0.31 → -0.18 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| NO L | 13–26 | -7.5dog 5.5 | -0.10 → -0.10 | +0.15 → +0.11 | -0.21 | 9%raw 3% | 0% – 51% | 1 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 26–13 | +7.5fav 5.5 | +0.15 → +0.15 | -0.10 → -0.07 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 49% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI W | 24–23 | +8.0dog 7.0 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.04 → -0.12 | +0.22 | 92%raw 88% | 7% – 89% | 1 / 3 |
| @ SF L | 23–24 | -8.0fav 7.0 | -0.04 → -0.10 | +0.11 → +0.09 | -0.19 | 11%raw 12% | 11% – 93% | 3 / 1 |
| LV L | 18–34 | -13.0dog 3.0 | -0.22 → -0.18 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.25 | 6%raw 2% | 0% – 78% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 34–18 | +13.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.22 → -0.13 | +0.20 | 90%raw 98% | 22% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| BAL W | 41–38 | +0.5fav 2.5 | +0.29 → +0.27 | +0.25 → +0.22 | +0.05 | 63%raw 62% | 8% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CIN L | 38–41 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.25 → +0.31 | +0.29 → +0.15 | +0.16 | 86%raw 38% | 2% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| TB L | 30–36 | -3.5dog 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.16 | +0.23 → +0.25 | -0.09 | 27%raw 31% | 25% – 94% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 36–30 | +3.5fav 2.5 | +0.23 → +0.23 | +0.17 → +0.11 | +0.12 | 80%raw 69% | 6% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
| GB W | 24–19 | +2.0fav 3.0 | +0.02 → -0.00 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.11 | 77%raw 81% | 23% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 19–24 | -2.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.06 | +0.02 → -0.04 | -0.01 | 47%raw 19% | 3% – 77% | 2 / 1 |
| BUF L | 20–23 | -2.0dog 1.0 | -0.02 → +0.04 | -0.06 → -0.03 | +0.06 | 67%raw 64% | 6% – 59% | 0 / 2 |
| @ HOU W | 23–20 | +2.0fav 1.0 | -0.06 → -0.05 | -0.02 → -0.15 | +0.11 | 76%raw 36% | 41% – 94% | 2 / 0 |
| NYG W | 29–20 | +16.0dog 7.0 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.10 | 76%raw 84% | 26% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 20–29 | -16.0fav 7.0 | -0.10 → -0.13 | +0.03 → +0.12 | -0.25 | 6%raw 16% | 0% – 74% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL W | 20–17 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.13 | +0.05 → +0.08 | +0.05 | 64%raw 72% | 25% – 93% | 3 / 1 |
| @ PIT L | 17–20 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.02 | +0.11 → +0.15 | -0.13 | 19%raw 28% | 7% – 75% | 1 / 3 |
| NYJ L | 17–23 | -3.5dog 2.5 | -0.34 → -0.30 | -0.28 → -0.28 | -0.02 | 45%raw 31% | 2% – 43% | 3 / 2 |
| @ MIN W | 23–17 | +3.5fav 2.5 | -0.28 → -0.27 | -0.34 → -0.28 | +0.01 | 53%raw 69% | 57% – 98% | 2 / 3 |
| MIA W | 15–10 | +3.0fav 2.0 | -0.06 → -0.09 | -0.08 → +0.01 | -0.10 | 25%raw 57% | 18% – 97% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NE L | 10–15 | -3.0dog 2.0 | -0.08 → -0.07 | -0.06 → -0.07 | -0.00 | 49%raw 43% | 3% – 82% | 0 / 1 |
| IND L | 34–37 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.26 → +0.19 | +0.28 → +0.32 | -0.13 | 20%raw 43% | 3% – 70% | 1 / 2 |
| @ JAX W | 37–34 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.28 → +0.28 | +0.26 → +0.30 | -0.02 | 45%raw 57% | 30% – 97% | 2 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 42 | +0.666 | +0.562 | +0.104 | +28.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.62 | +11.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 43 | +0.486 | +0.494 | -0.008 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.62 | -0.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 34 | +0.469 | +0.493 | -0.024 | +15.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | +11.4 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | CAR | 31 | +0.411 | +0.456 | -0.045 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.22 | +2.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ATL | 25 | +0.352 | +0.376 | -0.023 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.37 | +6.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | TB | 60 | +0.340 | +0.369 | -0.029 | +20.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -5.5 | +1.03 | +6.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PIT | 44 | +0.264 | +0.243 | +0.021 | +11.6 | 2 / 1 | -12.3 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.84 | +3.1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | SEA | 37 | +0.192 | +0.205 | -0.013 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.37 | +4.8 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | JAX | 48 | +0.157 | +0.217 | -0.059 | +7.6 | 0 / 1 | -3.5 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.02 | +8.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | BUF | 39 | +0.149 | +0.160 | -0.011 | +5.8 | 1 / 1 | -9.2 | 1 | -4.7 | -0.11 | +5.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | CLE | 28 | +0.139 | +0.085 | +0.054 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.08 | -6.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | NO | 41 | +0.108 | +0.072 | +0.036 | +4.4 | 1 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.10 | +10.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LV | 29 | +0.099 | +0.086 | +0.013 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.11 | +2.4 |
| Derek Carr | NO | KC | 29 | +0.012 | -0.001 | +0.014 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.08 | +9.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | LA | 28 | -0.034 | -0.027 | -0.008 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.13 | -12.4 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SF | 31 | -0.036 | -0.059 | +0.023 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.06 | -2.2 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | 37 | -0.099 | -0.024 | -0.075 | -3.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.09 | -2.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | HOU | 31 | -0.128 | -0.166 | +0.038 | -4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.32 | -27.2 |
| Tyler Huntley | MIA | NE | 35 | -0.136 | -0.100 | -0.036 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.21 | -6.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NYG | 47 | -0.142 | -0.088 | -0.055 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -12.9 | -0.28 | -0.5 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | DAL | 30 | -0.143 | -0.116 | -0.027 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.03 | -1.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | GB | 48 | -0.162 | -0.187 | +0.025 | -7.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.52 | -5.2 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | DEN | 21 | -0.246 | -0.254 | +0.008 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.04 | -9.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | MIN | 57 | -0.246 | -0.283 | +0.037 | -14.1 | 3 / 0 | -13.9 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.65 | -7.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | MIA | 35 | -0.251 | -0.251 | +0.000 | -8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.72 | -4.4 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | NYJ | 35 | -0.314 | -0.344 | +0.029 | -11.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.27 | -9.0 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | CHI | 31 | -0.412 | -0.403 | -0.008 | -12.8 | 1 / 0 | -1.3 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.35 | +0.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | WAS | 35 | -0.487 | -0.431 | -0.057 | -17.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.1 | 7 | -13.7 | -0.25 | -8.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | DEN | 19 | -0.537 | -0.545 | +0.008 | -10.2 | 2 / 0 | -15.1 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.22 | +4.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.