Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO L | 0–34 | -20.0dog 14.0 | -0.35 → -0.33 | +0.26 → +0.21 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 34–0 | +20.0fav 14.0 | +0.26 → +0.27 | -0.35 → -0.33 | +0.61 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYG L | 7–34 | -17.5dog 9.5 | -0.43 → -0.46 | +0.08 → +0.09 | -0.55 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 3 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 34–7 | +17.5fav 9.5 | +0.08 → +0.05 | -0.43 → -0.35 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| PIT L | 17–34 | -10.0dog 7.0 | -0.18 → -0.13 | +0.18 → +0.04 | -0.17 | 13%raw 1% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 34–17 | +10.0fav 7.0 | +0.18 → +0.20 | -0.18 → -0.15 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CLE L | 6–24 | -8.0dog 10.0 | -0.28 → -0.32 | +0.11 → +0.08 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 3 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 24–6 | +8.0fav 10.0 | +0.11 → +0.15 | -0.28 → -0.15 | +0.30 | 97%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| DET W | 34–17 | +10.0fav 7.0 | +0.32 → +0.34 | +0.01 → +0.07 | +0.27 | 95%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 17–34 | -10.0dog 7.0 | +0.01 → +0.03 | +0.32 → +0.22 | -0.18 | 12%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| SF L | 17–29 | -14.0fav 2.0 | +0.06 → +0.08 | +0.16 → +0.17 | -0.09 | 27%raw 19% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 29–17 | +14.0dog 2.0 | +0.16 → +0.16 | +0.06 → -0.02 | +0.18 | 88%raw 81% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| PHI L | 33–36 | -7.0fav 4.0 | +0.03 → -0.02 | -0.08 → -0.14 | +0.12 | 79%raw 82% | 11% – 93% | 1 / 5 |
| @ WAS W | 36–33 | +7.0dog 4.0 | -0.08 → -0.03 | +0.03 → -0.05 | +0.02 | 57%raw 18% | 7% – 89% | 5 / 1 |
| TEN L | 30–38 | -4.0dog 4.0 | +0.04 → +0.03 | +0.22 → +0.26 | -0.23 | 7%raw 8% | 0% – 72% | 3 / 1 |
| @ IND W | 38–30 | +4.0fav 4.0 | +0.22 → +0.21 | +0.04 → +0.11 | +0.10 | 75%raw 92% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| LA W | 19–9 | +7.0fav 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.13 | -0.03 → +0.03 | +0.10 | 75%raw 87% | 21% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 9–19 | -7.0dog 3.0 | -0.03 → -0.06 | +0.11 → +0.09 | -0.14 | 17%raw 13% | 0% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
| NE L | 21–24 | +11.0dog 14.0 | -0.03 → -0.02 | +0.03 → -0.10 | +0.09 | 73%raw 31% | 3% – 81% | 3 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 24–21 | -11.0fav 14.0 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.03 → +0.07 | -0.06 | 34%raw 69% | 19% – 97% | 1 / 3 |
| HOU L | 19–27 | -4.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.15 → +0.12 | -0.02 | 46%raw 32% | 0% – 54% | 2 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 27–19 | +4.5fav 3.5 | +0.15 → +0.20 | +0.09 → +0.13 | +0.08 | 70%raw 68% | 46% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN L | 27–34 | -4.0dog 3.0 | +0.19 → +0.23 | +0.22 → +0.25 | -0.02 | 43%raw 40% | 1% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 34–27 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.28 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.07 | 70%raw 60% | 13% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| JAX L | 14–19 | -2.5dog 2.5 | -0.21 → -0.21 | -0.06 → +0.04 | -0.25 | 6%raw 11% | 2% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LV W | 19–14 | +2.5fav 2.5 | -0.06 → -0.13 | -0.21 → -0.19 | +0.05 | 65%raw 89% | 37% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| ARI L | 30–36 | -11.5fav 5.5 | +0.16 → +0.08 | +0.25 → +0.34 | -0.26 | 5%raw 24% | 8% – 69% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 36–30 | +11.5dog 5.5 | +0.25 → +0.20 | +0.16 → +0.15 | +0.05 | 64%raw 76% | 31% – 92% | 0 / 2 |
| MIN W | 27–24 | +0.5fav 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.04 → +0.05 | +0.04 | 60%raw 68% | 25% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 24–27 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.04 → +0.09 | +0.10 → +0.11 | -0.02 | 45%raw 32% | 3% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| TB L | 24–26 | -6.5fav 4.5 | +0.08 → +0.06 | +0.01 → +0.04 | +0.01 | 54%raw 72% | 3% – 48% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 26–24 | +6.5dog 4.5 | +0.01 → +0.01 | +0.08 → +0.02 | -0.01 | 47%raw 28% | 52% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 33 | +0.481 | +0.469 | +0.012 | +15.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.17 | +1.9 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | DET | 42 | +0.403 | +0.392 | +0.011 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.00 | +5.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 34 | +0.388 | +0.362 | +0.026 | +13.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.48 | +7.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 24 | +0.318 | +0.295 | +0.023 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.21 | +0.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | HOU | 42 | +0.270 | +0.226 | +0.044 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.34 | +0.4 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | TB | 36 | +0.225 | +0.257 | -0.032 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.25 | +5.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NYJ | 19 | +0.207 | +0.168 | +0.039 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | -1.8 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | SEA | 38 | +0.206 | +0.220 | -0.014 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.43 | -1.7 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LAC | 42 | +0.196 | +0.170 | +0.026 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.17 | -1.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | SF | 34 | +0.193 | +0.166 | +0.027 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +0.8 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | NYG | 27 | +0.192 | +0.243 | -0.050 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.03 | -3.1 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | TEN | 12 | +0.180 | +0.202 | -0.023 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.02 | -6.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | KC | 41 | +0.166 | +0.147 | +0.019 | +6.8 | 2 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.08 | +0.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | PHI | 39 | +0.162 | +0.117 | +0.045 | +6.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 1 | +0.7 | +0.32 | -2.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | NO | 28 | +0.153 | +0.116 | +0.037 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | -4.4 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | MIA | 41 | +0.149 | +0.139 | +0.010 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.03 | -1.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 34 | +0.143 | +0.090 | +0.053 | +4.9 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 4 | -11.5 | +0.10 | +18.1 |
| Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 38 | +0.099 | +0.110 | -0.011 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.10 | +7.8 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | IND | 36 | +0.067 | +0.101 | -0.034 | +2.4 | 3 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.07 | -1.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | LA | 43 | +0.057 | +0.064 | -0.008 | +2.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 1 | -4.8 | +0.06 | -3.4 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | MIN | 45 | +0.051 | +0.007 | +0.044 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.09 | +6.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | DAL | 47 | +0.024 | +0.047 | -0.023 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.30 | +3.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 30 | +0.019 | +0.051 | -0.032 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.14 | -4.1 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CAR | 35 | -0.016 | +0.038 | -0.054 | -0.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.4 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.50 | -1.1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ARI | 29 | -0.033 | +0.038 | -0.071 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.22 | +5.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | PHI | WAS | 27 | -0.071 | -0.023 | -0.048 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.08 | -0.7 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | JAX | 41 | -0.072 | -0.006 | -0.067 | -3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.09 | -9.6 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | BAL | 35 | -0.103 | -0.188 | +0.085 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 3 | -4.0 | +0.09 | +17.2 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | LV | 40 | -0.127 | -0.134 | +0.007 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.14 | -3.6 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | CIN | 39 | -0.486 | -0.458 | -0.028 | -18.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.2 | 5 | -6.6 | -0.30 | -3.5 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | GB | 33 | -0.508 | -0.528 | +0.020 | -16.8 | 1 / 1 | -9.8 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.06 | -14.1 |
| Drew Lock | NYG | ATL | 42 | -0.556 | -0.511 | -0.045 | -23.4 | 2 / 1 | -22.7 | 3 | -8.8 | -0.36 | -8.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.