Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET W | 47–9 | +34.5fav 3.5 | +0.37 → +0.36 | -0.55 → -0.53 | +0.89 | 100%raw 100% | 34% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| @ DAL L | 9–47 | -34.5dog 3.5 | -0.55 → -0.54 | +0.37 → +0.27 | -0.81 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 66% | 5 / 0 |
| TB W | 51–27 | +20.5fav 3.5 | +0.24 → +0.25 | -0.41 → -0.39 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 22% – 100% | 3 / 3 |
| @ NO L | 27–51 | -20.5dog 3.5 | -0.41 → -0.43 | +0.24 → +0.17 | -0.60 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 78% | 3 / 3 |
| ARI L | 13–34 | -15.5dog 5.5 | -0.12 → -0.09 | +0.29 → +0.23 | -0.33 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 3 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 34–13 | +15.5fav 5.5 | +0.29 → +0.24 | -0.12 → -0.15 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| SF W | 36–24 | +8.5fav 3.5 | +0.36 → +0.36 | +0.01 → +0.02 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 24–36 | -8.5dog 3.5 | +0.01 → +0.01 | +0.36 → +0.30 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 0 |
| HOU W | 41–21 | +13.5fav 6.5 | +0.12 → +0.09 | -0.31 → -0.22 | +0.31 | 97%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ NE L | 21–41 | -13.5dog 6.5 | -0.31 → -0.26 | +0.12 → +0.15 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 4 / 1 |
| PIT W | 32–13 | +15.5fav 3.5 | +0.11 → +0.12 | -0.23 → -0.14 | +0.26 | 95%raw 99% | 24% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ LV L | 13–32 | -15.5dog 3.5 | -0.23 → -0.23 | +0.11 → +0.15 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 76% | 3 / 0 |
| ATL W | 38–20 | +12.0fav 6.0 | +0.27 → +0.18 | -0.10 → -0.02 | +0.20 | 91%raw 99% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CAR L | 20–38 | -12.0dog 6.0 | -0.10 → -0.12 | +0.27 → +0.29 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| JAX L | 16–35 | -20.5fav 1.5 | +0.01 → +0.01 | +0.29 → +0.35 | -0.34 | 2%raw 2% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CHI W | 35–16 | +20.5dog 1.5 | +0.29 → +0.23 | +0.01 → +0.04 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| LAC W | 23–16 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.14 | -0.04 → -0.04 | +0.18 | 88%raw 85% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DEN L | 16–23 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.02 | +0.09 → +0.11 | -0.13 | 20%raw 15% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| WAS L | 23–30 | -0.5dog 6.5 | +0.10 → +0.16 | +0.17 → +0.03 | +0.13 | 81%raw 29% | 1% – 62% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 30–23 | +0.5fav 6.5 | +0.17 → +0.13 | +0.10 → +0.05 | +0.07 | 70%raw 71% | 38% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| CLE L | 16–20 | +4.0dog 8.0 | -0.02 → +0.03 | +0.17 → +0.09 | -0.06 | 34%raw 7% | 2% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 20–16 | -4.0fav 8.0 | +0.17 → +0.21 | -0.02 → +0.11 | +0.09 | 74%raw 93% | 43% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| BUF W | 23–20 | +2.0fav 1.0 | +0.28 → +0.31 | +0.19 → +0.26 | +0.05 | 63%raw 78% | 30% – 94% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 20–23 | -2.0dog 1.0 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.28 → +0.15 | +0.05 | 64%raw 22% | 6% – 70% | 1 / 0 |
| CIN W | 17–7 | +5.5fav 4.5 | +0.03 → -0.00 | -0.14 → -0.05 | +0.05 | 63%raw 91% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 7–17 | -5.5dog 4.5 | -0.14 → -0.17 | +0.03 → -0.01 | -0.17 | 14%raw 9% | 0% – 60% | 1 / 1 |
| IND W | 20–17 | +5.5dog 2.5 | -0.09 → -0.12 | -0.03 → +0.05 | -0.16 | 14%raw 28% | 21% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 17–20 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.03 → -0.03 | -0.09 → -0.06 | +0.03 | 59%raw 72% | 5% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | DAL | 27 | +0.711 | +0.724 | -0.013 | +19.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.18 | +8.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 27 | +0.445 | +0.402 | +0.043 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.32 | +18.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 28 | +0.411 | +0.419 | -0.008 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +1.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | ARI | 32 | +0.402 | +0.464 | -0.062 | +12.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +4.2 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | JAX | 32 | +0.392 | +0.446 | -0.054 | +12.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -2.9 | +0.24 | +15.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | CAR | 30 | +0.363 | +0.410 | -0.047 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.21 | +0.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | WAS | 28 | +0.354 | +0.393 | -0.039 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.33 | +15.8 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | BAL | 38 | +0.347 | +0.250 | +0.097 | +13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.12 | +9.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CLE | 26 | +0.332 | +0.275 | +0.057 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.21 | +2.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | BUF | 38 | +0.286 | +0.294 | -0.008 | +10.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 3 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -0.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | GB | 32 | +0.276 | +0.241 | +0.035 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -1.1 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 37 | +0.239 | +0.219 | +0.020 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.20 | +1.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CHI | 39 | +0.221 | +0.218 | +0.004 | +8.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.04 | +6.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NO | 38 | +0.120 | +0.084 | +0.035 | +4.5 | 3 / 0 | -14.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.23 | -6.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | SF | 52 | +0.110 | +0.085 | +0.025 | +5.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.13 | +0.6 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | PHI | 28 | +0.094 | +0.054 | +0.040 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.5 | +0.14 | -0.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | NE | 33 | +0.048 | +0.080 | -0.032 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.19 | +4.2 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | TEN | 38 | +0.017 | +0.041 | -0.024 | +0.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | -4.2 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | LV | 28 | -0.001 | -0.015 | +0.014 | -0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.12 | -6.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | NYG | 32 | -0.065 | -0.016 | -0.049 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.0 | +0.11 | +11.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LAC | 36 | -0.074 | -0.096 | +0.022 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.21 | -6.0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | PIT | 42 | -0.078 | -0.091 | +0.013 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.06 | -2.3 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | ATL | 38 | -0.165 | -0.129 | -0.035 | -6.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +2.4 |
| Drake Maye | NE | HOU | 37 | -0.231 | -0.264 | +0.034 | -8.5 | 2 / 1 | -15.8 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.18 | -3.3 |
| Will Levis | TEN | IND | 27 | -0.252 | -0.211 | -0.041 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.37 | -3.9 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | DET | 11 | -0.328 | -0.318 | -0.010 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +3.7 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | TB | 45 | -0.352 | -0.308 | -0.044 | -15.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 5 | -8.1 | -0.42 | -12.4 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | CIN | 41 | -0.360 | -0.333 | -0.026 | -14.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.34 | -8.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | DET | 37 | -0.538 | -0.528 | -0.010 | -19.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.16 | -11.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.