Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL W | 31–2 | +23.5fav 5.5 | +0.31 → +0.37 | -0.41 → -0.39 | +0.77 | 100%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 2–31 | -23.5dog 5.5 | -0.41 → -0.37 | +0.31 → +0.17 | -0.55 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| LAC W | 40–7 | +27.0fav 6.0 | +0.29 → +0.28 | -0.55 → -0.47 | +0.75 | 100%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 7–40 | -27.0dog 6.0 | -0.55 → -0.54 | +0.29 → +0.32 | -0.86 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 1 / 0 |
| DAL L | 7–41 | -26.5dog 7.5 | -0.30 → -0.26 | +0.27 → +0.20 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 52% | 4 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 41–7 | +26.5fav 7.5 | +0.27 → +0.25 | -0.30 → -0.28 | +0.53 | 100%raw 100% | 48% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| KC W | 29–10 | +16.0fav 3.0 | +0.34 → +0.36 | -0.11 → -0.08 | +0.44 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 10–29 | -16.0dog 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.11 | +0.34 → +0.31 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 2 / 0 |
| CAR L | 14–48 | -24.5dog 9.5 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.45 → +0.40 | -0.51 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 48–14 | +24.5fav 9.5 | +0.45 → +0.38 | -0.10 → -0.02 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| LV W | 25–10 | +13.0fav 2.0 | +0.10 → +0.11 | -0.28 → -0.26 | +0.37 | 98%raw 99% | 27% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NO L | 10–25 | -13.0dog 2.0 | -0.28 → -0.29 | +0.10 → +0.20 | -0.49 | 0%raw 1% | 0% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 14–40 | -16.0dog 10.0 | -0.22 → -0.21 | +0.17 → +0.03 | -0.25 | 6%raw 1% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 40–14 | +16.0fav 10.0 | +0.17 → +0.19 | -0.22 → -0.16 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| IND L | 33–45 | -19.5fav 7.5 | +0.06 → +0.02 | +0.38 → +0.48 | -0.46 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 45–33 | +19.5dog 7.5 | +0.38 → +0.38 | +0.06 → +0.09 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| GB L | 25–27 | -3.0fav 1.0 | -0.05 → +0.00 | +0.09 → +0.10 | -0.10 | 24%raw 13% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 27–25 | +3.0dog 1.0 | +0.09 → +0.13 | -0.05 → -0.11 | +0.24 | 94%raw 87% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA W | 20–3 | +14.0fav 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.07 | -0.36 → -0.24 | +0.17 | 87%raw 97% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 3–20 | -14.0dog 3.0 | -0.36 → -0.36 | -0.10 → -0.10 | -0.26 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| ATL L | 24–30 | -2.5dog 3.5 | +0.07 → +0.02 | +0.22 → +0.18 | -0.15 | 15%raw 11% | 8% – 81% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 30–24 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.22 → +0.21 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.13 | 82%raw 89% | 19% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| DET W | 40–34 | +2.0fav 4.0 | +0.38 → +0.38 | +0.34 → +0.28 | +0.10 | 76%raw 61% | 13% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SF L | 34–40 | -2.0dog 4.0 | +0.34 → +0.37 | +0.38 → +0.27 | +0.10 | 76%raw 39% | 1% – 87% | 2 / 0 |
| DEN L | 24–30 | -2.5dog 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.14 | +0.14 → +0.10 | +0.04 | 61%raw 60% | 6% – 77% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 30–24 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.19 | +0.17 → +0.18 | +0.01 | 53%raw 40% | 23% – 94% | 1 / 1 |
| TEN L | 13–20 | -8.0fav 1.0 | +0.04 → -0.03 | +0.15 → +0.19 | -0.22 | 8%raw 17% | 1% – 50% | 1 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 20–13 | +8.0dog 1.0 | +0.15 → +0.14 | +0.04 → +0.11 | +0.03 | 58%raw 83% | 50% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| ARI L | 9–13 | +2.5dog 6.5 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.02 | 56%raw 57% | 6% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 13–9 | -2.5fav 6.5 | -0.03 → -0.09 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.06 | 34%raw 43% | 38% – 94% | 0 / 2 |
| SEA W | 6–3 | -0.5fav 3.5 | -0.17 → -0.17 | -0.21 → -0.16 | -0.01 | 47%raw 63% | 38% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 3–6 | +0.5dog 3.5 | -0.21 → -0.23 | -0.17 → -0.17 | -0.06 | 33%raw 37% | 7% – 62% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | NYG | IND | 23 | +1.197 | +1.201 | -0.005 | +27.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.59 | +10.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 34 | +0.701 | +0.741 | -0.040 | +23.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.30 | +20.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | SF | 37 | +0.630 | +0.592 | +0.038 | +23.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.74 | +11.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | HOU | 16 | +0.579 | +0.527 | +0.052 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.09 | +6.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | BUF | 16 | +0.531 | +0.550 | -0.019 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +16.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | PIT | 39 | +0.519 | +0.491 | +0.028 | +20.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +7.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NE | 38 | +0.495 | +0.517 | -0.022 | +18.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | +7.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | PHI | DAL | 15 | +0.463 | +0.469 | -0.007 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +7.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 27 | +0.412 | +0.362 | +0.050 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | -3.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | DET | 36 | +0.385 | +0.372 | +0.013 | +13.9 | 2 / 0 | -11.3 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.37 | +17.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | DEN | 56 | +0.357 | +0.333 | +0.024 | +20.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -9.6 | +1.28 | +14.5 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | GB | 44 | +0.313 | +0.277 | +0.036 | +13.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.45 | +8.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | NO | 36 | +0.307 | +0.268 | +0.039 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.18 | -9.4 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | TEN | 24 | +0.301 | +0.317 | -0.016 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.24 | +2.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | CIN | 33 | +0.275 | +0.288 | -0.013 | +9.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.35 | +9.4 |
| Tyler Huntley | MIA | CLE | 29 | +0.217 | +0.160 | +0.058 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.0 | +0.19 | +22.4 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | NYG | 41 | +0.126 | +0.177 | -0.050 | +5.2 | 2 / 1 | -13.4 | 2 | -5.7 | +0.13 | +7.7 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | ATL | 41 | +0.094 | +0.121 | -0.027 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 5 | -6.3 | +0.16 | -0.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | MIN | 34 | +0.067 | +0.022 | +0.045 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.07 | +1.8 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 52 | +0.035 | +0.043 | -0.008 | +1.8 | 2 / 0 | -6.3 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.31 | +2.6 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | JAX | 34 | -0.060 | +0.007 | -0.067 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.17 | -2.8 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | WAS | 37 | -0.065 | -0.017 | -0.048 | -2.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.04 | -4.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 32 | -0.090 | -0.015 | -0.075 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -12.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 33 | -0.115 | -0.076 | -0.039 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -10.2 | +0.01 | +9.9 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | CHI | 26 | -0.163 | -0.161 | -0.002 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.23 | +8.8 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | PHI | 29 | -0.272 | -0.304 | +0.032 | -7.9 | 2 / 0 | -11.3 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.28 | -10.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | SEA | 35 | -0.318 | -0.292 | -0.026 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -0.6 | 7 | -8.5 | -0.68 | -5.0 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | KC | 42 | -0.355 | -0.366 | +0.011 | -14.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 5 | -9.6 | -0.33 | -2.5 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | LV | 39 | -0.398 | -0.401 | +0.003 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.19 | -14.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | BAL | 36 | -0.445 | -0.524 | +0.080 | -16.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 5 | -10.2 | -0.27 | -10.3 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | MIA | 48 | -0.532 | -0.524 | -0.007 | -25.5 | 1 / 1 | -8.0 | 1 | -5.0 | -0.43 | -14.9 |
| Drake Maye | NE | LAC | 26 | -0.569 | -0.578 | +0.009 | -14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -11.4 | +0.00 | -6.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | BUF | 22 | -0.729 | -0.710 | -0.019 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.18 | -7.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.