Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF W | 31–10 | +18.0fav 3.0 | +0.31 → +0.31 | -0.21 → -0.21 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 44% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 10–31 | -18.0dog 3.0 | -0.21 → -0.21 | +0.31 → +0.18 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 56% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI W | 37–17 | +22.5dog 2.5 | +0.34 → +0.32 | -0.00 → -0.04 | +0.36 | 98%raw 99% | 19% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CIN L | 17–37 | -22.5fav 2.5 | -0.00 → +0.05 | +0.34 → +0.27 | -0.21 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 81% | 2 / 0 |
| BAL L | 24–29 | -12.5fav 7.5 | +0.10 → +0.13 | +0.15 → +0.29 | -0.16 | 15%raw 33% | 13% – 63% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE W | 29–24 | +12.5dog 7.5 | +0.15 → +0.21 | +0.10 → -0.05 | +0.25 | 94%raw 67% | 37% – 87% | 1 / 0 |
| ATL W | 31–26 | +3.5fav 1.5 | +0.26 → +0.26 | +0.09 → +0.02 | +0.24 | 94%raw 91% | 30% – 97% | 0 / 3 |
| @ TB L | 26–31 | -3.5dog 1.5 | +0.09 → +0.07 | +0.26 → +0.28 | -0.20 | 9%raw 9% | 3% – 70% | 3 / 0 |
| TEN L | 14–52 | -25.5dog 12.5 | -0.29 → -0.28 | +0.03 → -0.09 | -0.19 | 11%raw 1% | 0% – 51% | 4 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 52–14 | +25.5fav 12.5 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.24 | 93%raw 99% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| DAL L | 24–30 | -0.5dog 5.5 | -0.02 → -0.03 | +0.25 → +0.18 | -0.21 | 9%raw 2% | 1% – 72% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 30–24 | +0.5fav 5.5 | +0.25 → +0.23 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.22 | 92%raw 98% | 28% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| CHI L | 15–18 | -1.5dog 1.5 | -0.15 → -0.20 | +0.08 → +0.03 | -0.22 | 8%raw 5% | 8% – 89% | 1 / 0 |
| @ WAS W | 18–15 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.08 → +0.08 | -0.15 → -0.10 | +0.18 | 88%raw 95% | 11% – 92% | 0 / 1 |
| NO L | 8–26 | -11.0dog 7.0 | -0.20 → -0.18 | -0.00 → +0.02 | -0.20 | 10%raw 6% | 0% – 64% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 26–8 | +11.0fav 7.0 | -0.00 → -0.00 | -0.20 → -0.18 | +0.18 | 88%raw 94% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| KC W | 27–20 | -2.0fav 9.0 | +0.18 → +0.18 | -0.06 → +0.04 | +0.15 | 84%raw 96% | 31% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 20–27 | +2.0dog 9.0 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.18 → +0.14 | -0.20 | 10%raw 4% | 1% – 69% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI W | 28–27 | +5.0dog 4.0 | +0.30 → +0.32 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.13 | 81%raw 81% | 13% – 64% | 0 / 0 |
| @ MIA L | 27–28 | -5.0fav 4.0 | +0.19 → +0.14 | +0.30 → +0.29 | -0.15 | 16%raw 19% | 36% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
| MIN L | 20–30 | -13.0fav 3.0 | +0.11 → +0.09 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.08 | 29%raw 26% | 0% – 64% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 30–20 | +13.0dog 3.0 | +0.19 → +0.24 | +0.11 → +0.12 | +0.12 | 80%raw 74% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| GB W | 30–27 | -0.5fav 3.5 | +0.11 → +0.04 | +0.06 → +0.10 | -0.05 | 36%raw 66% | 27% – 93% | 1 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 27–30 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.10 | +0.11 → +0.05 | +0.05 | 63%raw 34% | 7% – 73% | 2 / 1 |
| CAR L | 14–28 | -1.0dog 13.0 | -0.15 → -0.10 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.14 | 17%raw 8% | 0% – 71% | 2 / 2 |
| @ DEN W | 28–14 | +1.0fav 13.0 | +0.04 → -0.05 | -0.15 → -0.07 | +0.01 | 54%raw 92% | 29% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| IND L | 20–23 | +2.0dog 5.0 | -0.09 → -0.04 | -0.07 → -0.04 | -0.01 | 48%raw 42% | 8% – 69% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU W | 23–20 | -2.0fav 5.0 | -0.07 → -0.08 | -0.09 → -0.06 | -0.02 | 46%raw 58% | 31% – 92% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 22–25 | -10.0fav 7.0 | +0.12 → +0.10 | +0.02 → +0.12 | -0.02 | 45%raw 79% | 12% – 81% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 25–22 | +10.0dog 7.0 | +0.02 → +0.04 | +0.12 → +0.19 | -0.15 | 16%raw 21% | 19% – 88% | 0 / 0 |
| NYG L | 18–26 | -2.0dog 6.0 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.08 → +0.12 | -0.05 | 38%raw 41% | 1% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 26–18 | +2.0fav 6.0 | +0.08 → +0.05 | +0.06 → +0.15 | -0.10 | 25%raw 59% | 43% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CIN | 20 | +0.719 | +0.720 | -0.001 | +14.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.48 | +19.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | MIA | 36 | +0.527 | +0.509 | +0.018 | +19.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.50 | +11.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | MIN | 34 | +0.523 | +0.467 | +0.055 | +17.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.69 | +4.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | TB | 31 | +0.463 | +0.488 | -0.025 | +14.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.48 | +12.7 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | BAL | 44 | +0.368 | +0.270 | +0.098 | +16.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.48 | +2.9 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | SEA | 35 | +0.346 | +0.357 | -0.011 | +12.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.5 | 1 | +1.3 | +0.24 | +7.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | CAR | 39 | +0.301 | +0.350 | -0.048 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.23 | +13.5 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | LA | 28 | +0.301 | +0.302 | -0.002 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.36 | +11.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 38 | +0.298 | +0.279 | +0.019 | +11.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -2.7 | +0.45 | +6.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 39 | +0.256 | +0.199 | +0.057 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.20 | +4.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | DAL | 28 | +0.244 | +0.261 | -0.017 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.21 | +2.9 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | KC | 33 | +0.227 | +0.207 | +0.020 | +7.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 5 | -11.9 | +0.02 | +17.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PHI | 38 | +0.219 | +0.175 | +0.044 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.20 | +6.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | GB | 33 | +0.195 | +0.163 | +0.033 | +6.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 1 | -5.1 | +0.20 | +6.6 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | CHI | 40 | +0.168 | +0.161 | +0.007 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.85 | -0.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | ARI | 39 | +0.155 | +0.224 | -0.069 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.25 | +3.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ATL | 49 | +0.153 | +0.181 | -0.027 | +7.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +11.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | NYJ | 26 | +0.144 | +0.106 | +0.039 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.30 | -0.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | NE | 30 | +0.110 | +0.141 | -0.030 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.17 | +8.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 39 | +0.108 | +0.141 | -0.033 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.11 | +1.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NO | 35 | +0.097 | +0.061 | +0.035 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.8 | -0.04 | -3.1 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | NYG | 31 | +0.069 | +0.121 | -0.052 | +2.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 4 | -9.1 | +0.03 | +11.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | JAX | 22 | +0.069 | +0.131 | -0.062 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +3.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | SF | 40 | +0.047 | +0.023 | +0.023 | +1.9 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.09 | +6.3 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | BUF | 30 | +0.025 | +0.038 | -0.014 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.04 | +3.1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | PIT | 43 | -0.014 | -0.028 | +0.014 | -0.6 | 1 / 1 | -6.5 | 4 | -9.3 | -0.02 | +3.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DEN | 39 | -0.060 | -0.072 | +0.012 | -2.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.21 | +5.6 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | HOU | 36 | -0.192 | -0.224 | +0.032 | -6.9 | 1 / 1 | -5.6 | 5 | -5.8 | -0.40 | -24.8 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | LAC | 27 | -0.206 | -0.220 | +0.015 | -5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.16 | -18.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | TEN | 19 | -0.217 | -0.187 | -0.030 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.0 | -0.11 | +10.9 |
| Jake Haener | NO | LAC | 19 | -0.234 | -0.248 | +0.015 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.08 | -11.9 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | DET | 39 | -0.323 | -0.320 | -0.004 | -12.6 | 2 / 0 | -12.4 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.05 | -6.4 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | WAS | 28 | -0.349 | -0.296 | -0.053 | -9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.21 | -9.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.