Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB W | 40–17 | +26.0dog 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.26 | -0.37 → -0.36 | +0.62 | 100%raw 100% | 17% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 17–40 | -26.0fav 3.0 | -0.37 → -0.39 | +0.22 → +0.16 | -0.55 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 83% | 2 / 2 |
| BAL W | 35–14 | +4.5fav 16.5 | +0.44 → +0.42 | -0.23 → -0.14 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 14–35 | -4.5dog 16.5 | -0.23 → -0.18 | +0.44 → +0.31 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 62% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 13–27 | -8.5dog 5.5 | -0.28 → -0.23 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 49% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 27–13 | +8.5fav 5.5 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.28 → -0.26 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 51% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| GB W | 30–13 | +14.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.06 | -0.34 → -0.34 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 13–30 | -14.0dog 3.0 | -0.34 → -0.32 | +0.07 → +0.01 | -0.32 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| DAL W | 30–14 | +18.5dog 2.5 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.33 → -0.26 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ CAR L | 14–30 | -18.5fav 2.5 | -0.33 → -0.37 | +0.20 → +0.24 | -0.61 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 72% | 4 / 1 |
| BUF W | 48–42 | +8.5dog 2.5 | +0.48 → +0.51 | +0.26 → +0.15 | +0.37 | 98%raw 95% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 42–48 | -8.5fav 2.5 | +0.26 → +0.28 | +0.48 → +0.35 | -0.08 | 29%raw 5% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| KC W | 21–7 | +9.5fav 4.5 | -0.08 → -0.05 | -0.52 → -0.40 | +0.35 | 98%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| @ CLE L | 7–21 | -9.5dog 4.5 | -0.52 → -0.53 | -0.08 → -0.12 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 5 / 0 |
| LA W | 12–6 | +9.0dog 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.28 → -0.37 | +0.27 | 95%raw 93% | 31% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF L | 6–12 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.28 → -0.32 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.19 | 10%raw 7% | 3% – 69% | 1 / 0 |
| CIN W | 37–27 | +4.0fav 6.0 | +0.19 → +0.18 | -0.12 → -0.05 | +0.23 | 93%raw 99% | 15% – 100% | 3 / 6 |
| @ TEN L | 27–37 | -4.0dog 6.0 | -0.12 → -0.15 | +0.19 → +0.16 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 85% | 6 / 3 |
| CHI L | 12–30 | -11.0dog 7.0 | -0.20 → -0.15 | +0.03 → +0.04 | -0.20 | 10%raw 4% | 0% – 44% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 30–12 | +11.0fav 7.0 | +0.03 → +0.04 | -0.20 → -0.15 | +0.19 | 89%raw 96% | 56% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NYJ W | 32–25 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.39 → +0.33 | +0.13 → +0.17 | +0.16 | 85%raw 97% | 14% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 25–32 | -3.5dog 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.15 | +0.39 → +0.46 | -0.31 | 3%raw 3% | 2% – 86% | 2 / 0 |
| MIA L | 12–20 | -5.5dog 2.5 | -0.22 → -0.17 | -0.32 → -0.29 | +0.12 | 79%raw 79% | 1% – 48% | 4 / 1 |
| @ HOU W | 20–12 | +5.5fav 2.5 | -0.32 → -0.31 | -0.22 → -0.23 | -0.08 | 28%raw 21% | 52% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| WAS W | 20–19 | -6.5fav 7.5 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.07 → -0.04 | +0.12 | 79%raw 87% | 43% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 19–20 | +6.5dog 7.5 | -0.07 → -0.12 | +0.07 → +0.02 | -0.14 | 17%raw 13% | 3% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| IND L | 13–31 | -13.5dog 4.5 | -0.45 → -0.42 | -0.31 → -0.32 | -0.10 | 25%raw 13% | 0% – 80% | 5 / 3 |
| @ DEN W | 31–13 | +13.5fav 4.5 | -0.31 → -0.33 | -0.45 → -0.43 | +0.10 | 76%raw 87% | 20% – 100% | 3 / 5 |
| NE L | 17–30 | -7.0dog 6.0 | +0.04 → -0.01 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.18 | 12%raw 13% | 0% – 53% | 1 / 0 |
| @ ARI W | 30–17 | +7.0fav 6.0 | +0.18 → +0.16 | +0.04 → +0.14 | +0.02 | 56%raw 87% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL W | 15–9 | -0.5fav 6.5 | -0.21 → -0.21 | -0.26 → -0.17 | -0.04 | 39%raw 68% | 42% – 98% | 1 / 3 |
| @ LV L | 9–15 | +0.5dog 6.5 | -0.26 → -0.29 | -0.21 → -0.21 | -0.08 | 28%raw 32% | 2% – 58% | 3 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NYG | 27 | +0.879 | +0.912 | -0.033 | +23.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.36 | +24.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | LAC | 28 | +0.673 | +0.638 | +0.035 | +18.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.44 | +14.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | PIT | 35 | +0.635 | +0.609 | +0.026 | +22.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -1.7 | +0.34 | +13.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | DET | 34 | +0.601 | +0.585 | +0.016 | +20.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +5.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | BUF | 60 | +0.472 | +0.476 | -0.003 | +28.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.11 | -1.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | SEA | 27 | +0.390 | +0.399 | -0.009 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +13.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | JAX | 32 | +0.376 | +0.430 | -0.054 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.65 | -3.1 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | CIN | 25 | +0.366 | +0.386 | -0.020 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +12.7 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | NE | 30 | +0.356 | +0.384 | -0.028 | +10.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.9 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | CAR | 29 | +0.341 | +0.389 | -0.048 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.30 | -4.1 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | WAS | 21 | +0.251 | +0.300 | -0.049 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -15.0 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TEN | 37 | +0.192 | +0.212 | -0.020 | +7.1 | 2 / 1 | -12.6 | 1 | -6.7 | +0.18 | +8.4 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | NYJ | 49 | +0.132 | +0.093 | +0.038 | +6.4 | 2 / 0 | -2.2 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.26 | +1.8 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | CHI | 42 | +0.071 | +0.069 | +0.002 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.07 | -4.5 |
| Drake Maye | NE | ARI | 25 | +0.066 | +0.137 | -0.072 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.06 | +12.0 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | NO | 39 | +0.064 | +0.028 | +0.036 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 8 | -11.5 | +0.10 | +11.4 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | BAL | 15 | -0.029 | -0.115 | +0.086 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.07 | +9.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CLE | 38 | -0.068 | -0.118 | +0.050 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | -9.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | MIN | 34 | -0.089 | -0.128 | +0.039 | -3.0 | 0 / 1 | -6.8 | 2 | -9.2 | -0.15 | -5.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | HOU | 43 | -0.174 | -0.206 | +0.032 | -7.5 | 3 / 1 | -18.2 | 3 | -8.1 | -0.35 | -0.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 27 | -0.199 | -0.218 | +0.019 | -5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -4.3 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | PHI | 24 | -0.209 | -0.244 | +0.035 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.31 | -1.1 |
| Tim Boyle | NYG | BAL | 25 | -0.210 | -0.296 | +0.086 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.05 | -9.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | LV | ATL | 41 | -0.218 | -0.182 | -0.036 | -8.9 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -3.2 | -0.28 | -2.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | GB | 22 | -0.219 | -0.237 | +0.018 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.06 | +22.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | MIA | 30 | -0.222 | -0.223 | +0.001 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.6 | -0.06 | +3.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | LA | 34 | -0.327 | -0.311 | -0.016 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.47 | -20.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DAL | 34 | -0.337 | -0.303 | -0.035 | -11.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.2 | 6 | -14.9 | -0.16 | +0.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | TB | 36 | -0.356 | -0.310 | -0.045 | -12.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.08 | -0.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | LV | 20 | -0.374 | -0.376 | +0.001 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -6.6 | -0.04 | -2.5 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | DEN | 40 | -0.388 | -0.394 | +0.006 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.48 | -16.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | IND | 34 | -0.481 | -0.436 | -0.045 | -16.4 | 3 / 0 | -12.2 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.33 | -9.1 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | KC | 30 | -0.673 | -0.673 | -0.000 | -20.2 | 3 / 0 | -14.2 | 5 | -8.9 | -0.31 | -2.9 |
| Jake Haener | NO | WAS | 13 | -0.775 | -0.726 | -0.049 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.15 | -26.8 |
| Sam Howell | SEA | GB | 18 | -0.847 | -0.865 | +0.018 | -15.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.17 | -33.2 |
| Will Levis | TEN | CIN | 13 | -0.966 | -0.946 | -0.020 | -12.6 | 3 / 0 | -15.9 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.27 | -4.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.