Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF L | 10–35 | -22.5dog 2.5 | -0.14 → -0.09 | +0.29 → +0.16 | -0.24 | 6%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 35–10 | +22.5fav 2.5 | +0.29 → +0.31 | -0.14 → -0.28 | +0.59 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NE L | 13–30 | -6.5dog 10.5 | -0.48 → -0.50 | +0.13 → +0.06 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 30–13 | +6.5fav 10.5 | +0.13 → +0.11 | -0.48 → -0.39 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| WAS W | 42–14 | +31.5dog 3.5 | +0.41 → +0.36 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 14–42 | -31.5fav 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.41 → +0.37 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI L | 16–33 | -18.0fav 1.0 | -0.07 → -0.07 | +0.21 → +0.15 | -0.22 | 8%raw 2% | 0% – 46% | 1 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 33–16 | +18.0dog 1.0 | +0.21 → +0.27 | -0.07 → -0.15 | +0.42 | 99%raw 98% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| SEA L | 29–42 | -9.5dog 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.12 | +0.46 → +0.36 | -0.23 | 7%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 42–29 | +9.5fav 3.5 | +0.46 → +0.46 | +0.10 → +0.11 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| TEN W | 31–12 | +21.5dog 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.11 | -0.43 → -0.45 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 30% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIA L | 12–31 | -21.5fav 2.5 | -0.43 → -0.47 | -0.12 → -0.05 | -0.41 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 70% | 1 / 1 |
| MIN W | 31–29 | +4.5dog 2.5 | +0.03 → +0.07 | -0.14 → -0.21 | +0.28 | 96%raw 91% | 39% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| @ GB L | 29–31 | -4.5fav 2.5 | -0.14 → -0.09 | +0.03 → +0.04 | -0.14 | 18%raw 9% | 0% – 61% | 4 / 2 |
| PIT L | 24–27 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.06 → -0.07 | +0.11 → +0.15 | -0.22 | 8%raw 9% | 3% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 27–24 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.13 | -0.06 → -0.03 | +0.16 | 86%raw 91% | 55% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| KC W | 17–10 | -0.5fav 7.5 | -0.09 → -0.06 | -0.21 → -0.20 | +0.14 | 82%raw 85% | 14% – 98% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LAC L | 10–17 | +0.5dog 7.5 | -0.21 → -0.21 | -0.09 → -0.13 | -0.09 | 28%raw 15% | 2% – 86% | 0 / 2 |
| DAL W | 20–15 | -0.5fav 5.5 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.04 → +0.05 | +0.13 | 82%raw 97% | 31% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 15–20 | +0.5dog 5.5 | -0.04 → -0.07 | +0.21 → +0.25 | -0.32 | 3%raw 3% | 2% – 69% | 1 / 0 |
| JAX L | 20–24 | +1.5dog 5.5 | -0.01 → +0.04 | +0.16 → +0.19 | -0.16 | 15%raw 9% | 4% – 80% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 24–20 | -1.5fav 5.5 | +0.16 → +0.09 | -0.01 → +0.02 | +0.07 | 69%raw 91% | 20% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| DEN W | 10–9 | +8.5dog 7.5 | -0.28 → -0.28 | -0.28 → -0.23 | -0.05 | 37%raw 50% | 21% – 87% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 9–10 | -8.5fav 7.5 | -0.28 → -0.25 | -0.28 → -0.29 | +0.04 | 62%raw 50% | 13% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
| LA L | 18–24 | -3.0dog 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.06 | +0.08 → +0.14 | -0.08 | 29%raw 41% | 1% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 24–18 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.06 | +0.06 → +0.03 | +0.03 | 58%raw 59% | 27% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| NO L | 24–26 | +0.5dog 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.01 | 54%raw 63% | 16% – 71% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 26–24 | -0.5fav 2.5 | +0.02 → +0.02 | +0.06 → +0.09 | -0.07 | 32%raw 37% | 29% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN W | 34–24 | +5.5fav 4.5 | +0.17 → +0.08 | +0.00 → +0.09 | -0.01 | 49%raw 90% | 30% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 24–34 | -5.5dog 4.5 | +0.00 → -0.03 | +0.17 → +0.13 | -0.16 | 15%raw 10% | 1% – 70% | 1 / 1 |
| CLE L | 16–20 | -6.5fav 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.12 | -0.16 → -0.07 | -0.05 | 36%raw 64% | 4% – 72% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 20–16 | +6.5dog 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.13 | -0.12 → +0.01 | -0.15 | 16%raw 36% | 28% – 96% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | DET | SEA | 21 | +0.855 | +0.852 | +0.003 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.28 | +25.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | BUF | 19 | +0.478 | +0.483 | -0.006 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.13 | +9.5 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | ARI | 31 | +0.391 | +0.457 | -0.066 | +12.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +14.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 28 | +0.346 | +0.391 | -0.045 | +9.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.37 | +13.1 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | GB | 30 | +0.308 | +0.271 | +0.037 | +9.2 | 1 / 1 | -10.1 | 2 | -7.4 | +0.33 | +10.9 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | PIT | 28 | +0.300 | +0.277 | +0.023 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +5.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | 42 | +0.282 | +0.341 | -0.058 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.85 | +1.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CAR | 31 | +0.240 | +0.290 | -0.050 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.50 | +3.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | PHI | 49 | +0.235 | +0.191 | +0.044 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.19 | -5.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | NE | 28 | +0.223 | +0.248 | -0.026 | +6.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.07 | +2.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | DET | 60 | +0.153 | +0.148 | +0.005 | +9.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.01 | -0.8 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DAL | 41 | +0.086 | +0.108 | -0.023 | +3.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.06 | +10.3 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | LA | 26 | +0.073 | +0.080 | -0.007 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.02 | +10.3 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | IND | 37 | +0.062 | +0.094 | -0.032 | +2.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 4 | -8.6 | -0.03 | +1.2 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | CIN | 40 | +0.058 | +0.077 | -0.019 | +2.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -2.5 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | NO | 36 | +0.002 | -0.030 | +0.031 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.30 | -6.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 34 | -0.005 | -0.041 | +0.036 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.19 | -7.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 32 | -0.031 | -0.050 | +0.019 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.28 | -6.7 |
| Derek Carr | NO | ATL | 37 | -0.036 | -0.003 | -0.033 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -8.6 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.14 | +4.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | MIN | 56 | -0.047 | -0.090 | +0.042 | -2.6 | 3 / 0 | -14.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.04 | -1.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 29 | -0.057 | -0.071 | +0.013 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.05 | -6.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | WAS | 26 | -0.065 | -0.017 | -0.048 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.5 | -0.14 | +0.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CHI | 33 | -0.071 | -0.069 | -0.002 | -2.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 3 | -8.9 | -0.17 | -0.0 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | CLE | 26 | -0.098 | -0.145 | +0.047 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.23 | -13.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | BAL | 32 | -0.152 | -0.237 | +0.085 | -4.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 3 | -9.0 | -0.11 | +1.4 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | LV | 35 | -0.191 | -0.198 | +0.007 | -6.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.49 | +4.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | DEN | 47 | -0.249 | -0.257 | +0.008 | -11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -10.2 | -0.83 | -7.4 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | MIA | 17 | -0.259 | -0.255 | -0.004 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.09 | -5.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TB | 36 | -0.338 | -0.294 | -0.044 | -12.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 6 | -14.3 | -0.08 | -3.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | SF | 38 | -0.403 | -0.415 | +0.012 | -15.3 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 6 | -9.6 | -0.14 | -8.5 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | NYJ | 25 | -0.497 | -0.519 | +0.022 | -12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.49 | -14.8 |
| Tyler Huntley | MIA | TEN | 25 | -0.505 | -0.471 | -0.035 | -12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.33 | -3.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.