Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
NE W	10–7	-0.5fav 3.5	-0.14 → -0.06	-0.31 → -0.33	+0.27	95%raw 92%	19% – 94%	0 / 2
@ DEN L	7–10	+0.5dog 3.5	-0.31 → -0.28	-0.14 → -0.18	-0.10	24%raw 8%	6% – 81%	2 / 0
LA L	27–31	-1.5dog 2.5	+0.32 → +0.41	+0.20 → +0.18	+0.23	93%raw 84%	4% – 57%	0 / 0
@ SEA W	31–27	+1.5fav 2.5	+0.20 → +0.23	+0.32 → +0.25	-0.02	44%raw 16%	43% – 96%	0 / 0

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Matthew Stafford	LA	SEA	35	+0.546	+0.462	+0.084	+19.1	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-2.0	+0.18	+6.2
Sam Darnold	SEA	LA	39	+0.481	+0.462	+0.019	+18.8	0 / 0	+0.0	3	-4.4	+0.58	+8.7
Drake Maye	NE	DEN	26	-0.324	-0.420	+0.096	-8.4	0 / 0	+0.0	5	-8.1	-0.45	-13.0
Jarrett Stidham	DEN	NE	34	-0.435	-0.457	+0.022	-14.8	1 / 1	-7.5	3	-7.0	-0.71	-5.8

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.