Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA L | 8–33 | -23.5dog 1.5 | -0.29 → -0.29 | +0.26 → +0.25 | -0.54 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 3 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 33–8 | +23.5fav 1.5 | +0.26 → +0.23 | -0.29 → -0.27 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| SF W | 17–13 | +1.5fav 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.20 | -0.27 → -0.30 | +0.50 | 100%raw 99% | 24% – 94% | 2 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 13–17 | -1.5dog 2.5 | -0.27 → -0.32 | +0.11 → +0.08 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 6% – 76% | 2 / 2 |
| DET L | 13–27 | -12.5dog 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.06 | +0.20 → +0.13 | -0.18 | 12%raw 3% | 0% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 27–13 | +12.5fav 1.5 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.06 → -0.15 | +0.37 | 98%raw 97% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NYG L | 6–21 | -9.0dog 6.0 | -0.24 → -0.33 | +0.19 → +0.16 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 50% | 0 / 0 |
| @ WAS W | 21–6 | +9.0fav 6.0 | +0.19 → +0.13 | -0.24 → -0.22 | +0.36 | 98%raw 100% | 50% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| CAR L | 10–26 | -11.5dog 4.5 | -0.26 → -0.24 | +0.15 → +0.15 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 26–10 | +11.5fav 4.5 | +0.15 → +0.08 | -0.26 → -0.22 | +0.29 | 96%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| LV W | 20–13 | +9.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.16 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.26 | 95%raw 92% | 22% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NE L | 13–20 | -9.5fav 2.5 | -0.07 → -0.08 | +0.11 → +0.28 | -0.35 | 2%raw 8% | 1% – 78% | 1 / 1 |
| BAL L | 40–41 | -2.5fav 1.5 | +0.39 → +0.41 | +0.28 → +0.17 | +0.24 | 94%raw 80% | 28% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 41–40 | +2.5dog 1.5 | +0.28 → +0.29 | +0.39 → +0.32 | -0.03 | 41%raw 20% | 1% – 72% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU L | 9–14 | -1.5dog 3.5 | -0.13 → -0.11 | -0.04 → -0.12 | +0.00 | 51%raw 22% | 2% – 66% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 14–9 | +1.5fav 3.5 | -0.04 → +0.07 | -0.13 → -0.11 | +0.18 | 88%raw 78% | 34% – 98% | 1 / 2 |
| MIN W | 27–24 | +1.5fav 1.5 | -0.19 → -0.20 | -0.07 → -0.09 | -0.11 | 23%raw 17% | 5% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 24–27 | -1.5dog 1.5 | -0.07 → +0.01 | -0.19 → -0.12 | +0.13 | 81%raw 83% | 3% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| KC L | 21–27 | -9.0fav 3.0 | +0.24 → +0.31 | +0.32 → +0.36 | -0.05 | 36%raw 24% | 2% – 44% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 27–21 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.32 → +0.35 | +0.24 → +0.22 | +0.13 | 80%raw 76% | 56% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| TEN L | 12–20 | +0.5dog 8.5 | -0.41 → -0.34 | -0.15 → -0.17 | -0.18 | 12%raw 3% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 3 |
| @ DEN W | 20–12 | -0.5fav 8.5 | -0.15 → -0.21 | -0.41 → -0.30 | +0.09 | 73%raw 97% | 39% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| PIT W | 34–32 | -1.0fav 3.0 | +0.17 → +0.09 | +0.25 → +0.34 | -0.25 | 6%raw 25% | 16% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NYJ L | 32–34 | +1.0dog 3.0 | +0.25 → +0.25 | +0.17 → +0.19 | +0.06 | 65%raw 75% | 4% – 84% | 0 / 0 |
| ARI W | 20–13 | +1.0fav 6.0 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.04 → +0.02 | +0.05 | 65%raw 76% | 31% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NO L | 13–20 | -1.0dog 6.0 | -0.04 → -0.10 | +0.04 → +0.04 | -0.14 | 17%raw 24% | 3% – 69% | 0 / 0 |
| TB W | 23–20 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.11 → +0.11 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.04 | 62%raw 69% | 21% – 93% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ATL L | 20–23 | -1.5dog 1.5 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.11 → +0.09 | -0.05 | 37%raw 31% | 7% – 79% | 0 / 0 |
| DAL L | 20–24 | +4.5dog 8.5 | +0.04 → +0.11 | +0.16 → +0.12 | -0.01 | 46%raw 15% | 2% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 24–20 | -4.5fav 8.5 | +0.16 → +0.06 | +0.04 → +0.02 | +0.04 | 61%raw 85% | 38% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| CIN W | 17–16 | -4.5fav 5.5 | -0.11 → -0.07 | -0.05 → +0.10 | -0.17 | 13%raw 31% | 26% – 88% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CLE L | 16–17 | +4.5dog 5.5 | -0.05 → -0.13 | -0.11 → -0.12 | -0.01 | 48%raw 69% | 12% – 74% | 2 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 37 | +0.498 | +0.475 | +0.024 | +18.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.51 | +5.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 22 | +0.492 | +0.458 | +0.035 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.28 | +13.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | BUF | 21 | +0.459 | +0.419 | +0.040 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.16 | +8.7 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 36 | +0.452 | +0.370 | +0.081 | +16.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.75 | +15.3 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | PIT | 24 | +0.427 | +0.419 | +0.009 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.03 | +10.4 |
| Geno Smith | LV | NE | 37 | +0.425 | +0.385 | +0.040 | +15.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.27 | +9.6 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | MIA | 30 | +0.396 | +0.433 | -0.037 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.25 | +5.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | HOU | 32 | +0.306 | +0.190 | +0.116 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | +0.16 | +5.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | BAL | 49 | +0.305 | +0.292 | +0.013 | +14.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.35 | +8.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | NYJ | 34 | +0.196 | +0.300 | -0.105 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.10 | +6.4 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | TB | 43 | +0.190 | +0.224 | -0.033 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.39 | -5.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | ATL | 33 | +0.182 | +0.175 | +0.007 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.3 | +0.37 | -10.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 41 | +0.167 | +0.087 | +0.079 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.03 | -6.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 33 | +0.123 | +0.036 | +0.087 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +0.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | NO | 34 | +0.071 | +0.045 | +0.026 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.3 | +0.24 | -1.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 26 | +0.048 | -0.013 | +0.061 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.01 | -1.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 43 | +0.038 | +0.032 | +0.006 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.01 | +11.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | NYG | 33 | -0.005 | +0.041 | -0.046 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.02 | -1.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CAR | 30 | -0.034 | +0.049 | -0.082 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -4.1 |
| Drake Maye | NE | LV | 50 | -0.042 | -0.007 | -0.036 | -2.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.06 | +2.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 24 | -0.044 | +0.066 | -0.110 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.07 | +21.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | MIN | 37 | -0.089 | -0.189 | +0.099 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.25 | -6.7 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | CIN | 47 | -0.104 | -0.039 | -0.065 | -4.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.63 | +2.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | LA | 30 | -0.128 | -0.136 | +0.008 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.38 | -1.0 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | ARI | 45 | -0.155 | -0.080 | -0.075 | -7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.10 | -5.0 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | TEN | 41 | -0.260 | -0.187 | -0.073 | -10.7 | 2 / 1 | -13.6 | 1 | -5.2 | -0.18 | -1.7 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | DEN | 34 | -0.303 | -0.394 | +0.091 | -10.3 | 0 / 1 | -1.9 | 6 | -9.7 | -0.62 | -12.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | SF | 23 | -0.340 | -0.293 | -0.047 | -7.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.6 | 1 | -4.6 | -0.59 | +7.3 |
| Russell Wilson | NYG | WAS | 39 | -0.383 | -0.292 | -0.091 | -15.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.25 | -13.5 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | CHI | 25 | -0.403 | -0.393 | -0.010 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -9.7 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.06 | -3.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | JAX | 36 | -0.419 | -0.428 | +0.009 | -15.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -3.3 | -0.28 | -12.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | IND | 27 | -0.571 | -0.532 | -0.039 | -15.4 | 2 / 1 | -12.5 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.22 | -7.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.