Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA L | 10–38 | -14.0dog 14.0 | -0.34 → -0.31 | +0.36 → +0.33 | -0.65 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 38–10 | +14.0fav 14.0 | +0.36 → +0.33 | -0.34 → -0.33 | +0.67 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYJ L | 8–35 | -14.5dog 12.5 | -0.28 → -0.28 | +0.36 → +0.25 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 35–8 | +14.5fav 12.5 | +0.36 → +0.29 | -0.28 → -0.21 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| SEA W | 13–3 | +7.5fav 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.02 | -0.36 → -0.41 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF L | 3–13 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.36 → -0.28 | +0.07 → +0.05 | -0.33 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 1 / 0 |
| TEN L | 7–41 | -21.5dog 12.5 | -0.35 → -0.34 | +0.22 → +0.22 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 1 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 41–7 | +21.5fav 12.5 | +0.22 → +0.17 | -0.35 → -0.24 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| GB L | 3–16 | -0.5dog 12.5 | -0.33 → -0.25 | -0.04 → +0.03 | -0.28 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 45% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 16–3 | +0.5fav 12.5 | -0.04 → -0.04 | -0.33 → -0.42 | +0.38 | 99%raw 98% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| LAC L | 3–19 | -1.5dog 14.5 | -0.41 → -0.35 | -0.18 → -0.20 | -0.14 | 17%raw 4% | 0% – 44% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 19–3 | +1.5fav 14.5 | -0.18 → -0.13 | -0.41 → -0.40 | +0.27 | 95%raw 96% | 56% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DET W | 19–16 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.14 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.22 | 92%raw 94% | 36% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 16–19 | -6.5fav 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.14 → +0.07 | -0.11 | 22%raw 6% | 3% – 64% | 1 / 1 |
| WAS W | 24–17 | +10.0dog 3.0 | -0.03 → +0.05 | -0.10 → -0.15 | +0.19 | 90%raw 74% | 17% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 17–24 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.19 | -0.03 → -0.06 | -0.13 | 19%raw 26% | 1% – 83% | 1 / 2 |
| DAL L | 17–34 | -20.0fav 3.0 | -0.13 → -0.19 | +0.12 → +0.15 | -0.34 | 2%raw 3% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 34–17 | +20.0dog 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.02 | -0.13 → -0.15 | +0.17 | 87%raw 97% | 30% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| ARI L | 20–37 | -2.5dog 14.5 | +0.04 → +0.06 | +0.24 → +0.16 | -0.10 | 24%raw 6% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 37–20 | +2.5fav 14.5 | +0.24 → +0.18 | +0.04 → +0.03 | +0.15 | 85%raw 94% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NO L | 17–19 | +2.5dog 4.5 | -0.11 → -0.12 | -0.25 → -0.25 | +0.12 | 80%raw 86% | 3% – 55% | 2 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 19–17 | -2.5fav 4.5 | -0.25 → -0.23 | -0.11 → -0.06 | -0.17 | 13%raw 14% | 45% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| IND L | 30–38 | +1.5dog 9.5 | -0.07 → +0.04 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.03 | 57%raw 32% | 13% – 65% | 3 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 38–30 | -1.5fav 9.5 | -0.02 → -0.02 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.08 | 71%raw 68% | 35% – 87% | 0 / 3 |
| BAL L | 24–26 | -6.5fav 4.5 | +0.14 → +0.13 | +0.06 → +0.08 | +0.06 | 66%raw 75% | 22% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 26–24 | +6.5dog 4.5 | +0.06 → +0.06 | +0.14 → +0.07 | -0.01 | 47%raw 25% | 24% – 78% | 0 / 1 |
| KC L | 12–14 | -5.5fav 3.5 | -0.47 → -0.49 | -0.49 → -0.35 | -0.15 | 16%raw 57% | 15% – 67% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 14–12 | +5.5dog 3.5 | -0.49 → -0.49 | -0.47 → -0.50 | +0.02 | 55%raw 43% | 33% – 85% | 1 / 2 |
| CAR L | 14–16 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.04 | +0.01 → -0.02 | -0.01 | 46%raw 41% | 4% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 16–14 | -1.0fav 3.0 | +0.01 → -0.07 | -0.02 → +0.03 | -0.10 | 25%raw 59% | 55% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| CLE W | 20–18 | +11.5dog 9.5 | -0.13 → -0.20 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.09 | 27%raw 42% | 19% – 84% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CIN L | 18–20 | -11.5fav 9.5 | -0.10 → -0.06 | -0.13 → +0.02 | -0.08 | 29%raw 58% | 16% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | BUF | NYJ | 31 | +0.631 | +0.725 | -0.094 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +12.7 |
| Drake Maye | NE | MIA | 18 | +0.448 | +0.484 | -0.036 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +24.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 21 | +0.423 | +0.414 | +0.009 | +8.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.99 | +2.6 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | GB | 23 | +0.335 | +0.329 | +0.006 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | -0.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 40 | +0.330 | +0.395 | -0.065 | +13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.55 | -1.9 |
| Josh Johnson | WAS | PHI | 21 | +0.288 | +0.193 | +0.094 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +6.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 44 | +0.283 | +0.279 | +0.003 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.10 | +5.4 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | DAL | 36 | +0.276 | +0.383 | -0.107 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -2.9 | +0.28 | +6.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 32 | +0.260 | +0.318 | -0.058 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.13 | +11.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 24 | +0.206 | +0.283 | -0.077 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.27 | +5.5 |
| Riley Leonard | IND | HOU | 35 | +0.170 | +0.053 | +0.117 | +5.9 | 1 / 2 | -10.1 | 1 | -6.4 | -0.13 | +1.1 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 22 | +0.166 | +0.195 | -0.028 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -4.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | BAL | 49 | +0.162 | +0.152 | +0.010 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.53 | +1.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 34 | +0.151 | +0.189 | -0.038 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +11.3 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | SF | 28 | +0.135 | +0.171 | -0.036 | +3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.03 | +6.9 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | DET | 35 | -0.019 | -0.041 | +0.023 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.01 | +0.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 42 | -0.021 | -0.082 | +0.061 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -12.6 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.38 | +6.8 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | ATL | 39 | -0.067 | -0.067 | -0.000 | -2.6 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.41 | -1.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | LA | 37 | -0.074 | -0.083 | +0.009 | -2.8 | 1 / 1 | -6.7 | 6 | -12.9 | +0.11 | +13.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | NO | 35 | -0.137 | -0.158 | +0.020 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.08 | -6.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LAC | 27 | -0.141 | -0.213 | +0.072 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | -0.07 | -12.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 11 | -0.151 | -0.095 | -0.056 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.06 | -4.4 |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | WAS | 43 | -0.232 | -0.143 | -0.089 | -10.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -1.8 | -0.28 | -1.4 |
| Brady Cook | NYJ | BUF | 24 | -0.242 | -0.264 | +0.022 | -5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.12 | -19.9 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | KC | 23 | -0.255 | -0.255 | +0.000 | -5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.38 | -23.6 |
| Quinn Ewers | MIA | NE | 27 | -0.295 | -0.320 | +0.025 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.13 | +3.2 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 30 | -0.388 | -0.452 | +0.064 | -11.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.29 | +3.2 |
| Shane Buechele | KC | LV | 19 | -0.409 | -0.359 | -0.050 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.1 | -0.51 | -16.8 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | CIN | 28 | -0.417 | -0.346 | -0.071 | -11.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.9 | 6 | -9.9 | -0.26 | -11.8 |
| Joe Milton III | DAL | NYG | 13 | -0.456 | -0.400 | -0.056 | -5.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | -6.3 |
| Max Brosmer | MIN | GB | 10 | -0.539 | -0.544 | +0.006 | -5.4 | 0 / 1 | -7.4 | 2 | -9.3 | -0.01 | +8.5 |
| Trey Lance | LAC | DEN | 45 | -0.593 | -0.681 | +0.088 | -26.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.7 | 4 | -10.2 | -0.47 | -11.0 |
| Brandon Allen | TEN | JAX | 31 | -0.772 | -0.775 | +0.003 | -23.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.9 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.22 | -13.1 |
| Clayton Tune | GB | MIN | 15 | -0.796 | -0.878 | +0.082 | -11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -9.0 | -0.16 | -16.8 |
| Chris Oladokun | KC | LV | 20 | -0.840 | -0.790 | -0.050 | -16.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.6 | 3 | -10.8 | -0.48 | -8.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.