Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
SF L	6–41	-28.5dog 6.5	-0.46 → -0.38	+0.21 → +0.19	-0.58	0%raw 0%	0% – 45%	3 / 0
@ SEA W	41–6	+28.5fav 6.5	+0.21 → +0.17	-0.46 → -0.51	+0.68	100%raw 100%	55% – 100%	0 / 3
HOU L	16–28	-9.0dog 3.0	-0.41 → -0.38	-0.28 → -0.32	-0.06	35%raw 15%	0% – 64%	5 / 3
@ NE W	28–16	+9.0fav 3.0	-0.28 → -0.17	-0.41 → -0.39	+0.21	92%raw 85%	36% – 100%	3 / 5
BUF L	30–33	-1.5dog 1.5	+0.08 → +0.17	+0.03 → +0.02	+0.14	83%raw 66%	1% – 79%	5 / 1
@ DEN W	33–30	+1.5fav 1.5	+0.03 → +0.04	+0.08 → -0.04	+0.08	71%raw 34%	21% – 99%	1 / 5
LA W	20–17	-0.5fav 3.5	+0.04 → +0.03	-0.04 → -0.06	+0.09	72%raw 73%	34% – 94%	0 / 3
@ CHI L	17–20	+0.5dog 3.5	-0.04 → -0.02	+0.04 → -0.04	+0.03	57%raw 27%	6% – 66%	3 / 0

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Sam Darnold	SEA	SF	19	+0.243	+0.277	-0.034	+4.6	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.0	+0.09	+11.5
Josh Allen	BUF	DEN	42	+0.221	+0.118	+0.103	+9.3	2 / 1	-11.0	3	-7.5	+0.58	+2.3
Bo Nix	DEN	BUF	46	+0.105	+0.075	+0.030	+4.9	1 / 0	-4.7	0	+0.0	+0.13	-4.7
Caleb Williams	CHI	LA	42	+0.049	+0.039	+0.010	+2.1	3 / 0	-9.2	0	+0.0	+0.32	-8.0
Matthew Stafford	LA	CHI	46	+0.031	+0.032	-0.001	+1.4	0 / 0	+0.0	4	-5.2	+0.43	-11.1
Drake Maye	NE	HOU	32	-0.142	-0.249	+0.107	-4.5	1 / 1	-4.9	5	-11.0	-0.15	-5.4
Brock Purdy	SF	SEA	29	-0.332	-0.397	+0.065	-9.6	1 / 1	-9.9	2	-8.6	-0.05	-2.9
C.J. Stroud	HOU	NE	50	-0.448	-0.470	+0.022	-22.4	4 / 0	-20.5	3	-4.6	-0.60	-20.2

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.