Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI L | 17–34 | -24.0fav 7.0 | -0.10 → -0.16 | +0.25 → +0.29 | -0.44 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 34–17 | +24.0dog 7.0 | +0.25 → +0.33 | -0.10 → -0.14 | +0.47 | 100%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| SF L | 19–30 | -7.5dog 3.5 | -0.09 → -0.10 | +0.32 → +0.30 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 30–19 | +7.5fav 3.5 | +0.32 → +0.28 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.41 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LA W | 17–3 | +7.0fav 7.0 | -0.03 → -0.04 | -0.33 → -0.42 | +0.38 | 99%raw 98% | 29% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ BAL L | 3–17 | -7.0dog 7.0 | -0.33 → -0.32 | -0.03 → -0.11 | -0.21 | 9%raw 2% | 0% – 71% | 3 / 1 |
| BUF L | 14–24 | -13.5fav 3.5 | -0.12 → -0.13 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.21 | 9%raw 7% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 0 |
| @ ATL W | 24–14 | +13.5dog 3.5 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.12 → -0.25 | +0.32 | 97%raw 93% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DET L | 17–30 | -10.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.13 | +0.27 → +0.26 | -0.12 | 21%raw 11% | 0% – 66% | 0 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 30–17 | +10.5fav 2.5 | +0.27 → +0.29 | +0.11 → +0.03 | +0.26 | 95%raw 89% | 34% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| CLE L | 9–23 | -8.5dog 5.5 | -0.19 → -0.20 | +0.13 → +0.15 | -0.35 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 46% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 23–9 | +8.5fav 5.5 | +0.13 → +0.18 | -0.19 → -0.04 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| CHI W | 25–24 | +6.5dog 5.5 | +0.18 → +0.11 | -0.06 → -0.10 | +0.21 | 91%raw 97% | 15% – 81% | 0 / 3 |
| @ WAS L | 24–25 | -6.5fav 5.5 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 19% – 85% | 3 / 0 |
| DEN W | 13–11 | -5.5fav 7.5 | -0.09 → -0.17 | -0.42 → -0.35 | +0.18 | 88%raw 99% | 28% – 95% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYJ L | 11–13 | +5.5dog 7.5 | -0.42 → -0.35 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.25 | 6%raw 1% | 5% – 72% | 0 / 1 |
| NE W | 25–19 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.17 | -0.04 → +0.02 | +0.15 | 85%raw 92% | 34% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 19–25 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.00 | +0.14 → +0.11 | -0.11 | 22%raw 8% | 1% – 66% | 1 / 0 |
| SEA W | 20–12 | +6.5fav 1.5 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.01 → -0.02 | +0.09 | 73%raw 69% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ JAX L | 12–20 | -6.5dog 1.5 | -0.01 → +0.08 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.05 | 63%raw 31% | 0% – 70% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN L | 18–27 | +5.0dog 14.0 | +0.08 → +0.09 | +0.21 → +0.13 | -0.05 | 37%raw 14% | 0% – 52% | 0 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 27–18 | -5.0fav 14.0 | +0.21 → +0.14 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.07 | 69%raw 86% | 48% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| LAC W | 29–27 | -1.5fav 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.07 | +0.09 → +0.12 | -0.05 | 37%raw 54% | 32% – 94% | 1 / 3 |
| @ MIA L | 27–29 | +1.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.16 | +0.10 → +0.14 | +0.02 | 56%raw 46% | 6% – 68% | 3 / 1 |
| ARI L | 27–31 | +4.5dog 8.5 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.15 → +0.13 | -0.04 | 40%raw 31% | 4% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
| @ IND W | 31–27 | -4.5fav 8.5 | +0.15 → +0.10 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.01 | 53%raw 69% | 25% – 96% | 1 / 1 |
| TEN L | 10–20 | -6.5dog 3.5 | -0.31 → -0.33 | -0.18 → -0.03 | -0.30 | 3%raw 15% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 20–10 | +6.5fav 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.25 | -0.31 → -0.20 | -0.05 | 37%raw 85% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| DAL L | 27–30 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.18 → +0.10 | +0.16 → +0.21 | -0.11 | 23%raw 57% | 13% – 68% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CAR W | 30–27 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.16 → +0.05 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.11 | 23%raw 43% | 32% – 87% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | NO | 27 | +0.684 | +0.645 | +0.040 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.65 | +10.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DET | 33 | +0.505 | +0.472 | +0.034 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.9 | +0.41 | +7.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | SF | 24 | +0.476 | +0.503 | -0.027 | +11.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.27 | +7.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | CAR | 34 | +0.450 | +0.522 | -0.072 | +15.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.66 | +7.1 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | JAX | 28 | +0.402 | +0.376 | +0.026 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.21 | +7.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CLE | 30 | +0.390 | +0.320 | +0.070 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +8.2 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | PHI | 27 | +0.373 | +0.279 | +0.094 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.18 | +4.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | MIA | 39 | +0.286 | +0.324 | -0.039 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | +0.57 | +8.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | KC | 30 | +0.242 | +0.224 | +0.018 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.22 | +14.2 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | CHI | 29 | +0.227 | +0.222 | +0.005 | +6.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -2.3 | +0.24 | +11.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CIN | 27 | +0.216 | +0.272 | -0.057 | +5.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.19 | +6.6 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | NE | 28 | +0.175 | +0.139 | +0.035 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.06 | +6.6 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | GB | 45 | +0.153 | +0.145 | +0.009 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.05 | +4.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | IND | 46 | +0.112 | +0.136 | -0.024 | +5.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.01 | +4.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | LAC | 34 | +0.072 | -0.001 | +0.073 | +2.5 | 3 / 0 | -6.9 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.03 | +2.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | SEA | 49 | +0.065 | -0.008 | +0.073 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -10.1 | -0.21 | -2.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | NYJ | 31 | +0.057 | +0.165 | -0.108 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.06 | +3.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | BAL | 28 | +0.040 | +0.034 | +0.006 | +1.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.9 | 2 | -10.0 | +0.08 | +0.7 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | ARI | 31 | +0.021 | +0.092 | -0.070 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.36 | +3.7 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | WAS | 33 | +0.018 | +0.099 | -0.082 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.10 | -8.2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | BUF | 34 | +0.015 | -0.012 | +0.028 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.02 | -6.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 36 | +0.011 | +0.060 | -0.049 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -8.8 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.09 | +9.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DAL | 26 | -0.029 | +0.085 | -0.113 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.06 | +13.7 |
| Geno Smith | LV | TEN | 25 | -0.045 | +0.023 | -0.068 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.02 | +2.8 |
| Mac Jones | SF | TB | 45 | -0.143 | -0.098 | -0.045 | -6.4 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 6 | -9.9 | -0.09 | +7.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | ATL | 30 | -0.243 | -0.239 | -0.004 | -7.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.5 | 4 | -5.0 | -0.10 | -7.9 |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | PIT | 58 | -0.246 | -0.239 | -0.007 | -14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -9.6 | -0.21 | -10.2 |
| Cooper Rush | BAL | LA | 19 | -0.266 | -0.269 | +0.003 | -5.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.33 | -9.4 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | LV | 43 | -0.384 | -0.340 | -0.044 | -16.5 | 1 / 2 | -12.4 | 6 | -16.7 | -0.32 | +5.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | LA | 18 | -0.395 | -0.398 | +0.003 | -7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.3 | -0.09 | +11.4 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | DEN | 26 | -0.714 | -0.797 | +0.083 | -18.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -13.3 | -1.06 | -14.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.