Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN L | 10–48 | -35.0dog 3.0 | -0.79 → -0.73 | +0.12 → +0.20 | -0.93 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 5 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 48–10 | +35.0fav 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.05 | -0.79 → -0.82 | +0.87 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| IND W | 41–20 | +15.0fav 6.0 | +0.39 → +0.35 | -0.17 → -0.06 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 20–41 | -15.0dog 6.0 | -0.17 → -0.18 | +0.39 → +0.38 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| DET W | 38–30 | +12.5dog 4.5 | +0.39 → +0.40 | +0.09 → +0.02 | +0.39 | 99%raw 98% | 24% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL L | 30–38 | -12.5fav 4.5 | +0.09 → +0.11 | +0.39 → +0.32 | -0.22 | 8%raw 2% | 0% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
| KC W | 22–9 | +7.0fav 6.0 | +0.15 → +0.10 | -0.25 → -0.23 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NYG L | 9–22 | -7.0dog 6.0 | -0.25 → -0.24 | +0.15 → +0.14 | -0.37 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| ATL L | 0–30 | -35.5fav 5.5 | -0.34 → -0.43 | -0.01 → +0.04 | -0.47 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 53% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 30–0 | +35.5dog 5.5 | -0.01 → -0.02 | -0.34 → -0.34 | +0.32 | 97%raw 99% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| DAL L | 14–31 | -18.5fav 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.07 | +0.30 → +0.29 | -0.36 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 4 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 31–14 | +18.5dog 1.5 | +0.30 → +0.20 | -0.06 → -0.08 | +0.28 | 96%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| NO L | 13–44 | -23.5dog 7.5 | -0.12 → -0.04 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.16 | 14%raw 3% | 0% – 46% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 44–13 | +23.5fav 7.5 | +0.14 → +0.17 | -0.12 → -0.06 | +0.23 | 93%raw 97% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT W | 21–14 | +5.5fav 1.5 | -0.05 → -0.01 | -0.16 → -0.20 | +0.18 | 89%raw 81% | 33% – 99% | 1 / 5 |
| @ NE L | 14–21 | -5.5dog 1.5 | -0.16 → -0.17 | -0.05 → -0.04 | -0.13 | 18%raw 19% | 1% – 67% | 5 / 1 |
| MIA L | 21–31 | +2.5dog 12.5 | +0.05 → +0.06 | +0.28 → +0.16 | -0.10 | 25%raw 5% | 1% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 31–21 | -2.5fav 12.5 | +0.28 → +0.25 | +0.05 → +0.08 | +0.17 | 87%raw 95% | 37% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| LA L | 26–33 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.03 → +0.04 | +0.03 → -0.01 | +0.05 | 62%raw 29% | 23% – 92% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 33–26 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.05 | -0.03 → -0.12 | +0.17 | 87%raw 71% | 8% – 77% | 1 / 1 |
| HOU L | 10–17 | -5.5dog 1.5 | -0.21 → -0.19 | -0.16 → -0.18 | -0.02 | 46%raw 36% | 1% – 61% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 17–10 | +5.5fav 1.5 | -0.16 → -0.05 | -0.21 → -0.18 | +0.13 | 81%raw 64% | 39% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
| DEN L | 20–23 | -0.5dog 2.5 | -0.05 → +0.02 | -0.04 → -0.01 | +0.03 | 58%raw 47% | 17% – 87% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 23–20 | +0.5fav 2.5 | -0.04 → +0.04 | -0.05 → -0.06 | +0.10 | 75%raw 53% | 13% – 83% | 1 / 0 |
| LV L | 24–41 | -14.5dog 2.5 | +0.04 → -0.04 | +0.28 → +0.25 | -0.29 | 4%raw 4% | 0% – 47% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 41–24 | +14.5fav 2.5 | +0.28 → +0.28 | +0.04 → +0.20 | +0.07 | 70%raw 96% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 27–29 | +4.5dog 6.5 | -0.19 → -0.21 | +0.02 → -0.01 | -0.19 | 10%raw 6% | 1% – 56% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 29–27 | -4.5fav 6.5 | +0.02 → -0.07 | -0.19 → -0.11 | +0.04 | 62%raw 94% | 44% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| ARI L | 15–16 | +0.5dog 1.5 | -0.01 → -0.06 | -0.06 → -0.10 | +0.04 | 61%raw 65% | 17% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 16–15 | -0.5fav 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.12 | -0.01 → -0.02 | -0.10 | 25%raw 35% | 14% – 83% | 1 / 0 |
| GB L | 10–13 | -11.5fav 8.5 | -0.08 → -0.04 | -0.15 → -0.00 | -0.03 | 41%raw 73% | 23% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CLE W | 13–10 | +11.5dog 8.5 | -0.15 → -0.15 | -0.08 → -0.16 | +0.01 | 54%raw 27% | 7% – 77% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | SEA | NO | 18 | +0.986 | +0.943 | +0.043 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +22.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | DAL | 28 | +0.541 | +0.642 | -0.101 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.47 | +3.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | BAL | 28 | +0.526 | +0.509 | +0.018 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.36 | +13.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | LV | 21 | +0.495 | +0.516 | -0.021 | +10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.06 | +14.6 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | TEN | 25 | +0.376 | +0.433 | -0.057 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | +1.7 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | CIN | 23 | +0.350 | +0.411 | -0.061 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.04 | +3.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DET | 35 | +0.345 | +0.315 | +0.030 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -11.1 | +0.25 | +13.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 30 | +0.318 | +0.355 | -0.037 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.3 | +0.36 | +7.7 |
| Geno Smith | LV | WAS | 35 | +0.274 | +0.350 | -0.076 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.8 | +0.02 | +11.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | NYJ | 30 | +0.174 | +0.276 | -0.102 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.44 | +1.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | NYG | 39 | +0.166 | +0.211 | -0.045 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.00 | -1.5 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | SEA | 41 | +0.108 | +0.035 | +0.073 | +4.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 2 | -0.7 | -0.07 | +7.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 52 | +0.053 | -0.046 | +0.099 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 5 | -9.7 | +0.20 | -4.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | NE | 23 | +0.040 | +0.008 | +0.032 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +4.5 |
| Drake Maye | NE | PIT | 42 | +0.035 | +0.034 | +0.001 | +1.5 | 1 / 1 | -10.0 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.06 | +7.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 34 | +0.033 | +0.004 | +0.029 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -1.7 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CLE | 30 | +0.031 | -0.031 | +0.062 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 5 | -9.1 | -0.06 | -2.7 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LAC | 27 | +0.016 | -0.057 | +0.073 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.04 | -8.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | PHI | 34 | +0.012 | -0.073 | +0.085 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.03 | -5.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LA | 37 | +0.001 | -0.006 | +0.007 | +0.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 4 | -10.6 | +0.01 | +6.0 |
| Mac Jones | SF | ARI | 41 | -0.035 | +0.039 | -0.073 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.35 | +3.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | CHI | 43 | -0.047 | -0.044 | -0.003 | -2.0 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.00 | +10.9 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SF | 36 | -0.057 | -0.017 | -0.039 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | -0.22 | -2.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | 39 | -0.086 | -0.101 | +0.015 | -3.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.31 | +1.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ATL | 25 | -0.100 | -0.099 | -0.001 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.03 | -1.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 42 | -0.120 | -0.227 | +0.107 | -5.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.24 | -17.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYJ | TB | 39 | -0.244 | -0.199 | -0.045 | -9.5 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 4 | -7.3 | -0.35 | +7.5 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | GB | 37 | -0.249 | -0.248 | -0.001 | -9.2 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.21 | -3.4 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | IND | 42 | -0.332 | -0.298 | -0.034 | -14.0 | 1 / 0 | -7.9 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.34 | -1.4 |
| Russell Wilson | NYG | KC | 34 | -0.434 | -0.436 | +0.002 | -14.8 | 2 / 0 | -6.5 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.29 | -4.9 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | MIN | 30 | -0.518 | -0.602 | +0.084 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -15.2 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.36 | +0.4 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | CAR | 36 | -0.619 | -0.522 | -0.097 | -22.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.25 | -12.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.