Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC L | 6–35 | -32.0fav 3.0 | -0.51 → -0.51 | +0.08 → +0.07 | -0.58 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 35–6 | +32.0dog 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.15 | -0.51 → -0.50 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN L | 12–34 | -16.5dog 5.5 | -0.23 → -0.24 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 34–12 | +16.5fav 5.5 | +0.20 → +0.13 | -0.23 → -0.24 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DET L | 9–16 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.40 → -0.34 | -0.23 → -0.28 | -0.06 | 33%raw 9% | 1% – 52% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 16–9 | +4.5fav 2.5 | -0.23 → -0.22 | -0.40 → -0.50 | +0.27 | 96%raw 91% | 48% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| BAL W | 23–16 | -0.5fav 7.5 | -0.09 → -0.05 | -0.41 → -0.27 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 19% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CLE L | 16–23 | +0.5dog 7.5 | -0.41 → -0.42 | -0.09 → -0.17 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 1% – 81% | 1 / 2 |
| TB L | 32–44 | -6.0dog 6.0 | +0.08 → +0.10 | +0.27 → +0.15 | -0.05 | 35%raw 8% | 0% – 69% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BUF W | 44–32 | +6.0fav 6.0 | +0.27 → +0.26 | +0.08 → +0.06 | +0.20 | 91%raw 92% | 31% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| DAL W | 33–16 | +13.5fav 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.22 → -0.07 | +0.19 | 90%raw 99% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 16–33 | -13.5dog 3.5 | -0.22 → -0.33 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.45 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 72% | 1 / 1 |
| CHI W | 19–17 | +5.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → +0.04 | -0.19 → -0.13 | +0.16 | 86%raw 88% | 34% – 95% | 0 / 2 |
| @ MIN L | 17–19 | -5.0fav 3.0 | -0.19 → -0.21 | -0.05 → -0.07 | -0.14 | 17%raw 12% | 5% – 66% | 2 / 0 |
| SEA L | 19–21 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.20 → -0.18 | -0.17 → -0.26 | +0.07 | 70%raw 41% | 5% – 49% | 4 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 21–19 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.17 → -0.09 | -0.20 → -0.23 | +0.13 | 82%raw 59% | 51% – 95% | 1 / 4 |
| GB W | 27–20 | -0.5fav 7.5 | +0.34 → +0.29 | +0.15 → +0.18 | +0.11 | 77%raw 92% | 27% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NYG L | 20–27 | +0.5dog 7.5 | +0.15 → +0.16 | +0.34 → +0.27 | -0.10 | 24%raw 8% | 2% – 73% | 2 / 0 |
| KC L | 19–22 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.05 → +0.13 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.10 | 76%raw 54% | 14% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 22–19 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.05 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.03 | 57%raw 46% | 29% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 14–27 | -0.5dog 12.5 | -0.09 → -0.05 | +0.17 → +0.13 | -0.18 | 11%raw 3% | 0% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 27–14 | +0.5fav 12.5 | +0.17 → +0.09 | -0.09 → -0.01 | +0.10 | 74%raw 97% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| SF W | 41–22 | +15.5fav 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.16 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.08 | 70%raw 84% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ ARI L | 22–41 | -15.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.05 | +0.21 → +0.18 | -0.14 | 18%raw 16% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 0 |
| WAS L | 13–16 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.03 | -0.02 → +0.00 | +0.03 | 59%raw 77% | 3% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 16–13 | +0.5fav 2.5 | -0.02 → -0.10 | +0.07 → +0.04 | -0.14 | 17%raw 23% | 24% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU W | 16–13 | -2.5fav 5.5 | -0.07 → -0.13 | -0.12 → -0.00 | -0.13 | 20%raw 67% | 26% – 90% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TEN L | 13–16 | +2.5dog 5.5 | -0.12 → -0.01 | -0.07 → -0.04 | +0.03 | 58%raw 33% | 10% – 74% | 1 / 0 |
| CAR W | 30–27 | +7.5dog 4.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.01 | 46%raw 51% | 13% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ATL L | 27–30 | -7.5fav 4.5 | +0.13 → +0.05 | +0.13 → +0.18 | -0.13 | 19%raw 49% | 3% – 87% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | CIN | 16 | +0.616 | +0.670 | -0.054 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +12.2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | CAR | 16 | +0.593 | +0.671 | -0.079 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +15.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | TB | 31 | +0.368 | +0.401 | -0.034 | +11.4 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | -0.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | NYG | 27 | +0.346 | +0.386 | -0.040 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.7 | +0.56 | -1.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ATL | 52 | +0.281 | +0.274 | +0.007 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -13.8 | +0.86 | +2.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE | NYJ | 35 | +0.246 | +0.350 | -0.104 | +8.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.44 | +13.5 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | 28 | +0.242 | +0.309 | -0.067 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.17 | +10.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | LV | 34 | +0.223 | +0.252 | -0.029 | +7.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 1 | -5.8 | +0.30 | +8.7 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | GB | 31 | +0.217 | +0.206 | +0.010 | +6.7 | 1 / 1 | -4.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.14 | +0.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LAC | 22 | +0.184 | +0.109 | +0.075 | +4.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -1.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | KC | 39 | +0.144 | +0.130 | +0.015 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.33 | +3.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 48 | +0.125 | +0.024 | +0.101 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.04 | -2.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | SF | 58 | +0.122 | +0.159 | -0.037 | +7.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | +12.4 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | MIA | 31 | +0.090 | +0.131 | -0.040 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.05 | +2.3 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | MIN | 34 | +0.072 | -0.028 | +0.100 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.02 | -9.5 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | HOU | 40 | +0.044 | -0.068 | +0.112 | +1.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 3 | -7.8 | -0.05 | -2.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CIN | 16 | +0.023 | +0.077 | -0.054 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.09 | -10.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | WAS | 23 | +0.003 | +0.085 | -0.083 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.16 | +2.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | TEN | 45 | -0.073 | -0.004 | -0.069 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -11.3 | +0.12 | -0.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 28 | -0.075 | -0.145 | +0.069 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -16.6 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | PIT | 41 | -0.234 | -0.228 | -0.007 | -9.6 | 1 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.23 | -9.6 |
| Justin Fields | NYJ | NE | 28 | -0.235 | -0.265 | +0.030 | -6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.12 | -4.9 |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE | BAL | 11 | -0.243 | -0.235 | -0.008 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.16 | +0.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | BUF | 31 | -0.263 | -0.289 | +0.026 | -8.1 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 1 | -4.8 | -0.24 | -8.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DET | 29 | -0.273 | -0.289 | +0.016 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.21 | -9.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | PHI | 39 | -0.288 | -0.366 | +0.077 | -11.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.24 | -30.1 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | LA | 44 | -0.297 | -0.299 | +0.001 | -13.1 | 4 / 0 | -23.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.31 | +0.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | CAR | 14 | -0.350 | -0.271 | -0.079 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.39 | -27.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 30 | -0.374 | -0.428 | +0.054 | -11.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.8 | 5 | -6.5 | -0.31 | -8.8 |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN | CHI | 32 | -0.420 | -0.408 | -0.012 | -13.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -15.2 |
| Geno Smith | LV | DAL | 46 | -0.431 | -0.309 | -0.122 | -19.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 4 | -9.3 | -0.26 | -3.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | JAX | 20 | -0.711 | -0.712 | +0.001 | -14.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.25 | -8.2 |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE | BAL | 18 | -0.809 | -0.800 | -0.008 | -14.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -5.0 | -0.64 | -34.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.